Saturday Basketball In Depth Look

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Last Week: 12-8 (60%) Well last night was a refreshing change to the bad start I had to the week as things are starting to fall back into place. The key to doing this for a long time is money management and patience, but I will save that long drawn out discussion for another day so we can concentrate on the big basketball card for today. First the record update for this week: 7-13 (35%), still well below the .500 mark but a increase with some winners yesterday. Now on to Saturday: With 75 games on the board, I am going to go through a typical Saturday in basketball and show you how to minimize work and maximize profits. I thought I would get this up early in case there is any questions or comments about games we could get them going well in advance! Be back shortly, Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look So as mentioned we have over 75 games of college basketball and it is almost impossible to handicap every game for Saturday and this does not even include the NBA. The key is to have a game plan. There is no sure fire method for handicapping on a college basketball full day and out of the many people I knew all of them have a different method of going about it. Some like to concentrate on one particular team or division or conference, and this is even helpful down the road when they have conference tournaments however I think it will hurt you when it comes down to the tournament in March. To me the entire season is just a warm up to the tournament in March and so if you just focus on one school or conference you will miss out on important information, players, and teams that could surprise in March. Every year there is a team or two that surprises in the tournament and if you do your research right you will not be surprised. Anyway back to today and my method for attacking a very big card such as the one for today. First I look over the card and the opening lines. As I have mentioned before I lean to being an underdog player because I think you get more value with the dog, I am not strictly a dog player but that is where the value is. I also think that home court advantage is strongest in college basketball then it is in any sport in today's games. Regardless of your record the home crowd will always support the home team because they have students and students follow the team closely. Also the time of year when rivalries, conference play, and seniors come into play. So those two combination is where I start and I look for home dogs with something to play for. First out of the entire card ( not including added games) there are 21 games that fit the criteria of home underdogs. Now those 21 games are not automatically a play but it does take over 50 games off the board. This does not mean I will not acknowledge the other games because home favorites also are a decent role to back in the right spot. In fact later in this thread I will go over one for Saturday that is in a very good lesson role. This is just a way to split the card into smaller portions to allow you to concentrate on the smaller aspect of the games before making the final selections on the day. Now let's go to consensus, I do not like to be on the same side as public money. They win their share of games however for the most part the public does not win and so I want to do my best to avoid them at all costs. Luckily for me the public will usually back a favorite which makes the dogs even more interesting. How do you find the consensus? Well there are several sites out there that actually will take a straw poll and see who everyone likes and I will suggest checking them out, but be careful as you have to try and figure out just who are making the selections and if they have anything to gain by posting numbers. Another good way is too go to any forum and check the threads and look for posts that do not post much information, yet just a team and if you find the team most people in any forum are taking you can bet it is a solid go against consensus play. After a quick look, my hunches were correct as every road favorite out of the 21 games I mentioned are being backed by the public, which already makes me comfortable with this approach for Saturday. Coming up I am going to expand a little more on these 21 games and see why you want to get rid of some and which ones shape up to be solid selections for Saturday! Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Well we have done the first couple of things to get started with a full busy Saturday and that was to narrow the list from 75 +, down to 21 games by choosing just home underdogs who that consensus were against. Now on to the next step and that is removing bad teams and line movement. Line movement goes hand in hand with consensus but to me it is more accurate because it actually shows on what team the money is coming in. Now without getting into a debate about wise guys, and smart money I look to take advantage of the line movement instead of getting on board late. This is the same philosophy I use for the smart money plays. Also when deciding which way the line movement is going I suggest two things to do: 1)        Use one place for your opening lines and stay with them even if other places show something different. What you’re looking for is consistency and that is what is important. 2)        Follow the book where you place your wagers. I have had several outs offshore and all of them fluctuate the line and so look at the lines when they first come out and then compare a couple of hours before game time to show accurate movement. IMPORTANT: an important note is when you see a line move do not always attribute it to money coming in on a team, as a line could move for injuries, suspensions, etc. SO before we go any further let’s unveil the 21 teams we are talking about so we can get a clearer picture, if you have not dug them up already. 1) St. Joe's @ RI +10.5 -11 2) GT @ Clemson +6 -6.5 3) Michigan St @ Penn St. +10-10.5 4) Colorado @ Texas A&M +4-6 5) Uconn @ Villanova +7.5-8 6) N. Iowa @ Indy St +2.5-3 7) Florida @ Arkansas +4.5-5 8) OK St. @ Baylor +15-15.5 9) Cincy @ UNC Charlotte +1-2 10) VA Commonwealth @ W&M +6-7 11) Western Michigan @ Toledo +3 12) Drexel @ Delaware +1 13) Detroit @ Youngstown St. +5.5 14) UTEP @ SMU +4.5-5 15) Idaho @ LB St. +4 16) St. Louis @ Tulane +4.5-5 17) Boise St @ LA Tech +1 18) Washington @ Arizona St. +1-1.5 19) Nevada @ Fresno ST. +2-2.5 20) Cal SB @ Cal Riverside +1 21) Utah St. @ Cal Irvine +8 Now using the bad team system I am going to begin eliminating teams one by one. The bad team system is simply just removing a team that would be a risk to put your money on and this is very subjective, but here are the first teams to be taken out of the top 21. 8) OK St. @ Baylor +15-15.5 REMOVED. Baylor is truly a horrible team and they host the number 6 team in the country with a lesson backing them here. They are just 8-18 overall and off a win in overtime. Baylor gets the boot. 2) GT @ Clemson +6 -6.5 REMOVED. Clemson is next to go. They have not played bad this year and could put up a fight at home against the yellow jackets, but tech is in the same spot as OK St. At just 3-10 in conference Clemson is next to see the door. 16) St. Louis @ Tulane +4.5-5 REMOVED. I thought long and hard about this one because it would seem odd that St. Louis could even be favored in this spot. They are off an embarrassing beat down by the bearcats and have the cardinal next game and it could easily look past this game. Tulane cannot close games in the end and at just 4-9 in conference they were the next to go. 15) Idaho @ LB St. +4 REMOVED. Long Beach is the next to go, with just a 4-11 record they do not have much to play for and it is evident by the blowout they suffered in the last game out. Idaho is 8-8 in conference and may be looking ahead to the game with first place Utah St but that only makes this one more important. That is it for the bad system and it removed four plays lowering our teams to look at is now down to 17. It is too early in the night/day to remove teams solely based on line movement so that will have to hold out for now and we will have to work with the remaining 17. Back with more. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look As we get closer to narrowing down the list I am going to do it a bit backward and advance teams based on lessons and experience and eliminate the others. I will advance all home dogs of 3 or less, this is based on the theory that small lines have little movement and are usually always looked at closer for those who are looking for games that are too good to be true, so these games advance. I also will follow that up with home dogs that will play on national television and that theory is this. Home teams on television always attract a big crowd and will have a full house inspiring their team to put forth a solid effort. 1.        N. Iowa @ Indy St +2.5-3 2.        Cincy @ UNC Charlotte +1-2 3.        Drexel @ Delaware +1 4.        Boise St @ LA Tech +1 5.        Washington @ Arizona St. +1-1.5 6.        Nevada @ Fresno ST. +2-2.5 7.        Cal SB @ Cal Riverside +1 8.        Western Michigan @ Toledo +3 9.        St. Joe's @ RI +10.5 –11 10.        Utah St. @ Cal Irvine +8 11.        Uconn @ Villanova +7.5-8 12.        Florida @ Arkansas +4.5-5 That leaves us with a dozen after cutting the following five: 1.        Michigan St @ Penn St. +10-10.5 2.        Colorado @ Texas A&M +4-6 3.        VA Commonwealth @ W&M +6-7 4.        Detroit @ Youngstown St. +5.5 5.        UTEP @ SMU +4.5-5 Now from 75 down to 12 we can begin to really dig in and look at school information, schedule and lessons. However before I dive into that I want to look at a lesson that everyone looks at for Saturday and it has been successful this year and in previous years. The lesson is to take a team that is not ranked in the polls that is favored over a team that is ranked in the polls. Tomorrow there are two teams that fit this role as Maryland is a 2-point favorite over ranked Wake Forest and Vanderbilt is a similar two-point favorite over Mississippi St. You should not play these plays based on the system alone and you should do more research before going all the way with these. I will comment on this lesson more when I have the final selections thread coming up soon. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Getting closer to the final output and so far we have two plays that I am going to recommend right now: Modified (play for half the normal wager)Lesson play: Maryland -2 This is modified because it is being played almost solely on the lesson I stated in the last thread. Lesson Play: Vanderbilt -2 This is in the same system as the one above however it is much stronger than the one above and therefore is going to be a straight lesson play. Will be back with the dirty dozen and will shave off some more games to lead up to the final selection process and the best of the best of home dogs. CB

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look and then there was the eight. It gets tougher as you narrow the games down but several did not make the cut at this stage and they are: Cincy @ UNC Charlotte +1-2 REMOVED. Normally this would have been a keeper without a doubt but for today it is the first game in the top 12 to be removed. Unlike most small lines with home dogs on a busy Saturday there is something a bit off about the lines, but not in this game. These teams have similar records and this game will be a battle with the winner getting sole position of second place. The Bearcats of Cincinnati are a good revenge team (they just got revenge against Louisville last game) and are looking to avenge a 3 point loss earlier in the season at home. Cincinnati also has motivation as they are looking for their 20th win of the season, but don’t jump on Cincinnati. Charlotte is one of the few places that the Bearcats have a losing record and you can expect a sold out stadium on national television and this one to go down to the wire. This win gets the cut because it should save us an ulcer. Uconn @ Villanova +7.5-8 REMOVED. Just hate to remove another team playing on national television but the Wildcats were the next team to fall out of the dirty dozen. They are reeling and have lost two straight on the road before coming home for this big game. I will keep my eye on this one as well as the one above and if there is a good looking first half played then I will look to make up for the pass in the second half. UCONN has won four out of the last five against the Wildcats and they will have revenge for a loss last year against the Wildcats. This Wildcat team is till young and although this will be the last home game for them (senior day) they will not be able to handle the pressure atmosphere as evident by the 0-2 record this year at home. With the amount of young players, coaching philosophy for this one and the turnover problem, the Wildcats get the ax. Turnovers have been a constant problem for the Wildcats as the team has turned the ball over 440 times this season. Villanova had a season-high 24 in its win over Virginia Tech on February 28. “Anything that has to do with turnovers could be a problem for us. It is definitely something we are concerned about and it is our decision making, not as much as bad passing, but rushing ourselves at times,†said Wright. “I do think we are getting better and I think you just have to play. These young guys have to play in game situations because it is tough to simulate it in practice, the speed and the pressure of the game. I think it is going to click soon, I hope it clicks Saturday.†Nevada @ Fresno St. +2-2.5 REMOVED The bulldogs are another team that have trouble closing that were next in line to get the shove off from the terrific 12. Fresno St, does have the weapons to pull off the upset here, but Nevada needs to secure the top seed in the WAC conference coming up and the tournament will be played on this court so they will look to get a win here. The bulldogs have lost 8 out of the last eleven and for a team that just missed the bad team system cut, they were not able to make the second round of cuts. Florida @ Arkansas +4.5-5 REMOVED. Another tough one to let go as the hogs always play well at home and they should be well rested for this game, but they are off a very big win over a ranked team. Florida is also in a lesson spot as a fade after a great come from behind win, but the hogs will need a full effort from their squad to keep this one close today. The gators also have won four out of the last five in this series, 2-0 against the SEC west this year and 27-6 overall in the last 33 games. A good free throw shooting team could cover this number late. 1.        N. Iowa @ Indy St +2.5-3 2.        Washington @ Arizona St. +1-1.5 3.        St. Joe's @ RI +10.5 –11 4.        Drexel @ Delaware +1 5.        Cal SB @ Cal Riverside +1 6.        Boise St @ LA Tech +1 7.        Western Michigan @ Toledo +3 8.        Utah St. @ Cal Irvine +8        Now with eight left there is only a couple of steps left, but it looks like something will happen that has not happened on one of my cards in a long time. Coming with the complete card and final selections for Saturday. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look 1.        N. Iowa @ Indy St +2.5-3 2.        Washington @ Arizona St. +1-1.5 3.        St. Joe's @ RI +10.5 –11 4.        Drexel @ Delaware +1 5.        Cal SB @ Cal Riverside +1 6.        Boise St @ LA Tech +1 7.        Western Michigan @ Toledo +3 8.        Utah St. @ Cal Irvine +8 So who made the cut out of the eight remaining teams? That is the first surprise of this Saturday, because they all did. I rarely like a card that much where I feel eight plays should be represented on a card but today that is exactly what happened. The second rarity is that when I post a top findings play that are doing very well this year it is usually anywhere from 3-7 plays a week, and 7 is rare. Well after today’s card there will be a total of seven top findings plays this week, but the rare part is there are two today! This does not happen often but enough of my babbling I am sure you want to get right to the serious stuff so without any further delay here is today’s cream of the crop. Smart Money Plays: LA Tech +1 and Cal Riverside +1 :D Mid Term Plays: Indy St +2.5 and Delaware +1 :clap Lesson Plays: RI +11 and Cal Irvine +8 :drums Top Findings: Toledo +3 and Arizona St. +1.5 :nana The first thing to do when you have narrowed down your own selections for today is to keep track of them, it is easy to lose the plays in a board of this size or actually play games you had no intentions of because they were on television or you were waiting to play one of your other selections. One last stop before the games tip and that will do it. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Hitting about the two hour point before the game and it's time to put the finishing touches on this one for today: Breakdowns Smart Money Plays: LA Tech 1 Look ahead spot here as Boise as first place Tex El Paso on deck and will not pay any attention to La Tech until it is too late. Cal Riverside 1 Easy to take Riverside here with the poor FT shooting of Cal SB. They are in one of the worst roles as a college team as they are playing on the road for the third consecutive week, allows a team to lose focus and get upset. Mid Term Plays: Indy St 2.5 Indy St. looks like a tough pill to swallow but on the contrary they look great here in this spot. Northern Iowa off a OT win and will look right by Indy St. here for the date they have with S. Ill. Delaware 1 Home dominance in the series @ 6-1 L7 and an edge in rebounding and free throws will be enough to shock Drexel off of a buzzer beating win. Lesson Plays: RI 11 Too Many points for this team who is i revenge mode and owns a 8 rebounding edge over the opposition. A small play on the moneyline is not a bad option here. Cal Irvine 8 Saturday night on ESPN and a chance to knock off the best team in your conference is not to much too ask here. Cal Irvine playing great while Utah St is uninspired right now and has to play three straight on the road to end it, will fade them in all of them. Top Findings: Toledo 3 Toledo got caught looking ahead to this and have some serious revenge for a blowout earlier in the year. Home dominance counts here with Toledo 5-1 in the last 6 winning by an average of 11 points per game. Arizona St. 1.5 The Pac 10 alway flies under the radar (except Stanford and Arizona) so beating one of them is the only way to get noticed and that is what Washington did has 14 point dogs. This puts them in a perfect lay down spot for this game today against the sun devils. Short & Sweet :D Also consider taking a look at Louisville and Kansas St as everyone is going against these two teams even a blind play should result in at worse a split. Carmine Will be around for some half times.

[Guest Kimkarim]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Great stuff, Carmine :ok

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Thanks Kimkarim! :D Just a note on RI/St. Joe's the halftime line was 7.5, and although RI lookes slid no need to double up here. CB

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Yikes I posted the 13th reply! :eek NBA is nothing special now just smaller plays. Halftime Selection: Texas tech +7.5 Tech has hung in a game an they are going to take a legit shot at winning it outright. Two of the best players on this team are cold right now just a combined 5-16 from the floor and the whole team is shooting just 38% yet they are only down by 3 at the half. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Halftime Selection Louisville -2 Memphis had a key player get an injury in the first hlf, although he returned to the game he is banged up and his back up is turning the ball over. Louisville is in favor of two lessons: 1) back a team (in the s/h) that is asked to cover more than the original line in the game 2) play on a team that is winning the game but has a lower shooting percentage. Memphis shot 55% Louisville 50% Car

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look adding a quick halftime play here: Kansas St. +3 Missouri is worn ut from the double OT Game and it will show in the second half, hey keep it close for the first ten minutes and then lose by more than 8. :D Carmine

[Guest cd3tops]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look any nba? I have already took the lakers for my 1 of 15 run!!

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Halftime Selection: Stanford -3.5 This game is being dominated by the Cardinal who will finish strong with it being senior day and the last game in this building before it is demolished. The Ducks shot bad but that was mostly because of great defense. Don't look for let up in the end as the cardinals have three seniors looking to finish strong. Carmine :ok

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Time to wrap up this thread and put a nice ending to it and with it I want to share what I think is the second most important lesson you can learn when wagering on a sporting event. After the fact research is essential to learning when you do this. Many people after they put the money on the game will just look for a final score and not look for other factors that may have led to the loss. It is important to review each and every game you put money and try to figure out why you lost. Many of the forums that I have been to will have at least one person if not more griping about a player or an official that cost them a game, but if they examine it closer they will realize it may have been the wrong game to even put money on all along. I thought I would break down Saturday’s game and show I how I do it personally so it may help others who want to try the approach and how it may help them. This is an article I have come across that I feel describes the process perfectly. I will be back with my recap of the day’s events. Everything changes when money is involved, or so it would seem. Having a few dollars involved on any particular game seems to encourage two bad habits among bettors. First, their “involvement†in the game makes them overlook the obvious fact that we all must continue to learn to get better. But since the bettor watched the game, he often doesn’t even follow through on this simple step. The second pitfall is to watch the game through rose-colored glasses. This habit usually keeps them from seeing what is obvious to the non-invested spectator. Few gamblers go back and look at their losses and try to learn something. Even fewer glean ideas from their wins. It’s about ego much of the time, but I also think money has something to do with it. Most ‘squares,’ and even somewhat informed bettors, are too worried with day-to-day results. When things go right, bettors have a tendency to assume they were flawless in their analysis. However, probably close to 30 to 40 percent of the games played each night have some little, unpredictable deciding factor. In addition, it is impossible for everyone - even the best bettors in the business - to properly evaluate every angle and perfectly match up in a game. If a team is favored by five and pulls out a four-point win, the divergence in the behavior of the guy who cashes a ticket on the winner and the guy who tears up his ticket illustrates this point rather clearly. How you react and what analysis you do after you win or lose that game with the non-covering favorite says a lot about your ability to win long-term at sports betting. Many ‘square’ bettors that took the underdog will say something like ‘I told you that was too many points, how could it not be obvious the favorite isn’t that good a team’? I hear things like this all the time and I just shake my head. One more made basket and that “obvious fact†wouldn’t have been so obvious. The person who won the bet should see if they truly valued the involved teams that well, since a little break here or there and could easily have changed the result. He might have done a good analysis, but without reviewing the game he won’t know for sure. They guy who loses the bet often will blame anyone and everyone he can. A close loss often means the officials blew a couple of obvious calls. At least, that seems to be a common response. If the refs really were the reason behind the loss, maybe these ‘square’ bettors should to add a “referee factor†to their handicapping. This is nonsense of course, but what else could you conclude from their line of thinking? The bottom line is; both of the above bettors will often not do any follow-up research. Maybe the opponent was playing a lot better defensively than recent stats show, so they got the cover. Or maybe the opponent didn’t play better defense, but the team that got your backing just didn’t hit open jumpers all night. If your watching was limited to rooting for a team because of money or fan interest, you probably won’t see it very clearly. Money changes everything. One thing that separates many professional-level bettors from even talented amateurs is that the professionals will log a lot of time into the mundane follow up. Reviewing what happened in every game is a time consuming process and taking good useful notes adds even more work. But in the end, those notes and learning experiences are what separates an informed opinion and a good guess. Whether you have money on the game or not, a simple log that requires you to make at least three observations from reviewing the stats might be the most insightful tool to add to your arsenal. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look Okay I am going to start my review and go play by play along the way: Early selections that fit a system: 0-2 Modified Play: Maryland –2 Maryland was never in this game and they were outplayed from the start, perhaps I should pay attention when I choose to make a play for less than a normal unit, may have to review but if I want to make it less, perhaps I should make it a pass instead. Lesson: Vanderbilt –2 This game was much closer and did warrant a selection, however they came up short. Looking at games to see why you lost could also help you prepare for games in the future for example, Mississippi St shot 50% from behind the 3 point line and that is something even the pros have trouble repeating in the next game out. Mississippi St. also had 42 rebounds and went to the free throw line much more than Vanderbilt. Both of the above selections stood out to me because they fell into a system that has been very profitable on the year and so although we lost the big picture on the season is a positive one. Half time selections: 2-2 Louisville –2 Followed another system here at the half that ha shown profits all year, but may want to be re examined for a possible correction as it has now lost four straight. The system is to take a team at the half that has the lead but a lower shooting percentage. Although I did not play it the Charlotte Niners also fit this profile and also lost in the second half. Kansas St. +3 The second loss of the halftime selections was one that could come in handy in the Big 12 tournament. Kansas St did not know how to deal with the ebb and flow of the game and were overrun in the second half. Managed more shots and shot better deep, but could not wrap it up when they had too. Texas Tech +7.5 Another helpful thing to look at for the upcoming tournament, Texas has trouble hitting free throws and so it is hard for them to pull away from an opponent that is talented. Texas is strong on the offensive boards however and notched 13 in this game. Stanford –3.5 I was lucky to get this one by a half a point and that is the only way I can look at it. Stanford is a good free throw team and that helped down the road, but Oregon missed several easy shots and free throws that would have allowed them to cover this game. Main Card 6-2 Since I went over the tactics used to narrow down the 8 plays I won’t bore you with more details on went happened in the games. Overall on Saturday: 8-6 (57%), This week 15-19 (44%) A great Sunday lies ahead to end the week in winning fashion and NBA leads the way followed by a small college card as well, I hope that this thread may have provided some information that could be helpful to you in the future. Carmine

[Guest Kimkarim]

Re: Saturday Basketball In Depth Look :notworthy