Guest Carmine Bellini Posted February 29, 2004 Share Posted February 29, 2004 Wanted to start the Sunday thread up as soon as possible so we can fill it with knowledge :D I will be back and cover a lesson or two about the end of the week and then instead of breaking down a slew of games, I may just take down one and really dig deep to bring the information! If anyone has a topic they would like to discuss or a game, bring it in and we can dissect it. Edit to add the record: Last Week: 12-8 (60%) :clap This week 15-19 (44%) :spank CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted February 29, 2004 Share Posted February 29, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! Well today is Sunday and that means everyone scrambles to get in the last whack at the bookmaker before the week ends. This is not as wide spread as it used to be because of the emergence of the offshore book, but indeed it still occurs. It also brings me onto another topic that happens everyday and that is chasing losses. Although it is a grind and it should be thought of as a marathon not a sprint, most gamblers live for the day. There is nothing worse than ending the day on a losing note so often the gambler will load up on the last game of the day to try and make it a winning day. This is one of the easiest mistakes to commit and one of the hardest to correct. What I suggest is that you break your record down to a daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal format. If your not keeping a record that too is a very big mistake and will cost you more than chasing. This week is a perfect example for me as I am down on the week and four games below .500, but instead of chasing and hitting the board hard on Sunday I just look at previous records. For example if you combine last week’s record and this week’s record I am already at .500 which means I would need just one win today to show profit. If I add previous weeks it will show that I am ahead for the season so it allows you to step back and take a breath and not worry about making more than you have to. You can also use chasers to your advantage when you do not become one of them. Tonight there are four late games that give the bettor the last shot to make or break is man for the week, but the one that really stands out is Duke / Florida St because it is a major game and it will be televised, thus it will bring in some action allowing you to fade the majority of the public money. In the NBA there are two late games that will have similar impacts on the money fluctuations but it is this college game that will get the most attention. The bottom line is do not chase your losses and live to fight another day, this theory is lost if you do not keep accurate records or if you do not have a good money management system. Carm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! First play of the day belongs to the Raptors +1.5 Lesson in taking the loser in the second game of a home and home series. Stronger when losing team is home like toay. Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! Smart Money Play :Heat/Bucks Under 196 When have the Heat warranted a high total such as 196? This may have moved due to the referee scare theory, but I am not biting. The under is a perfect 8-0 when the Heat played Jersey the game before going under by an average of double digits and the under is 35-14 when they are playing in the second of back to back games. this one will stay about 8-14 points under the posted total. back with some halftime selections and a straight college play.:nana Carm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! Oklahoma +3 This is a TOP FINDINGS second half play as it fits about three lessons, here are just a couple 1) go against a team that is being asked to cover the original line in the game with the second half line... 2) go against a team who shot 60% or over in the f/h Kansas shot 60% OU just will not let Kansas pull away to cover this number and have the edge on the glass which will give them second shots. take Oklahoma to keep it under 8 in this game. Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! 0-2out the gate >: as OU completely fell apart down the stretch to drop my top findings to 1-2 in the L3. Laying off the 4:00 est games with leans to Pitt and LSU but will wait to see if anything is available for the second half. Also I will be looking at the later games in the ACC tonight but my focus in the meantime will turn to tonight's NBA. WIll be back with later selections as they arrive :D CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 1, 2004 Share Posted March 1, 2004 Re: End of Week Basketball! Smart Money: LAC+4 s/h CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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