Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Well the week ended on a sour note yesterday and I spent most of the evening doing follow up research: Week One: 12-8 (60%) :clap Week Two 15-24 (39%) :banghead This Week: 0-0 Last note on yesterday: The halftime line between UNC/NC St had the NC St favored by 6.5 which is more than the original line bringing that halftime lesson to 6-0 in the L6 and now hitting at over 70% on the year, so may want to keep an eye out for that. I am going to break down the NBA game by game tonight and post the information and other finidngs in here! Back with game one in a minute. CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Breakdown Orlando @ Boston The Celtics come into this game without rest after winning in Toronto, while the Magic have rest after a rare road win in Atlanta. A note here has to be taken when you look at the Magic tonight because T Mac left the game against Atlanta in the third with knee problems but did return in the fourth to finish the game with over 30 points for the third game straight. As mentioned earlier the first thing you may want to look at in this game is the schedule as the Celtics are playing back to back and the Magic are rested. This is important because the Celtics are just 4-16 SU & ATS in this role, but they are at home and have revenge. Looking closer at that meetings in the past you will see the Celtics are an amazing 10-1 ATS the last 11 against the Magic at home, but the revenge factor may surprise you. The Celtics are a woeful 18-25 ATS at home when facing a team looking for revenge and when they are at home the number gets worse not better, at 3-10 ATS. The Magic are actually quite good at holding serve when facing a team looking for revenge. The Magic are 10-3 ATS when facing a team they beat in the past meeting and they have done well with this in the long term as they are 52-43 ATS at home when they are playing a team they beat in the last meeting. Also although the Celtics have taken 2 in a row they are still just 1-4 ATS in the last five at home, while the Magic are playing much better at 4-2 ATS in the last six overall. in fact the Magic have renewed confidence. The Magic are fueled by the recent trade. The trades: DeShawn Stevenson arrived from Utah for Gordan Giricek. Veteran Sean Rooks came from New Orleans for Shammond Williams. "It doesn't sound like you're making huge deals, but they've made a difference," Magic Coach Johnny Davis said. "They've energized us. They did not have a frame of reference to all the things we've been through." Basketball teams rely on so few players that the slightest tweaks can change chemistry on the floor and off. While Rooks has made the locker room a happier place -- Williams was upset with his playing time. Stevenson has changed the way the Magic play with his athleticism. He can play a number of positions, creating competition and renewed interest in job security. "I don't have to create as much as I did before the trade," McGrady said, "DeShawn can create his own shot." They are also doing much better when Mcgrady is not on the floor something that is key when you are looking to win. This allows Mcgrady to rest and the to come back rested late. The Magic basically beat the Denver Nuggets and Detroit Pistons without getting much from T-Mac. They then held off the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter Saturday night. Tyronn Lue and Drew Gooden scored 16 of their 28 points. Said Lue: "That's the thing Michael Jordan was always saying when I played with him [in Washington]: For your team to really develop confidence, you have to play without your star player, whether he's out or struggling." Down by one point to the Hawks in the second quarter, McGrady left to rest -- and watched the Magic run off 10 unanswered points. "I've been pretty fresh down the stretch of games," McGrady said. A quick look at the total you would think the over is the way to go in a game between two teams that play little to know defense and are full of featured scorers. I can't disagree as taking these two teams will result in scoring and could keep it close down the stretch. A look at the trends will tell you something else however. Boston has two reason to take a solid look at the under tonight in this game. They have been playing great defense and the under has come in 5 out of the last 6 games (keeping in mind two of these game were against offense challenged Toronto) and they shot five percentage points better than the average last game setting them up for a sub par or average performance tonight. A quick look at how these two teams fare when they are playing a game when the total is at 200 will show you similar thoughts. the celtics have the under at 21-8 when they are playing with a total of 200 or higher (10-2 @ home) and the Magic have the under at 30-17 when in the same situation. remember the revenge trends I went over? more reason to take a look at the under tonight in this one. The celtics have the under at 28-15 when they play a team that beat them in the previous meeting and the magic have it at 18-6. Finally the celtics have some stronger under numbers here as well. The under is 14-5 after a win when they had fewer than ten offensive boards and a perfect 7-0 after a game when they had more turnovers than assists. Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Breakdown New Orleans @ Washington This game is no more than a pass in this spot. The Hornets have a bad problem of looking past bad teams on the road. 12 of the Hornets' 27 losses have come to teams with losing records, including eight on the road. Last week the Hornets squandered a 25-point second-quarter lead and lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers (24-35). In January, the Hornets shot 35 percent in a road loss to the Chicago Bulls (17-42). In December, the Los Angeles Clippers (25-32) outscored the Hornets 30-17 in the fourth quarter to pull away for a 109-80 victory at the Staples Center. "Sometimes it's who you're playing and where," Hornets coach Tim Floyd said. "I don't consider Cleveland a bad basketball team, and Atlanta beat a lot of people after they beat us (90-80 Dec. 3). Some teams match up better with others. It's something that happens in this league." This has made them look at tonight's game with a serious light. "You can't look at their record and just say they are the Wizards," forward P.J. Brown said. "Those guys can get you on their home court." "We have to look toward the big picture, because we don't want to say we gave up one against Washington, or our record would have been better if we would have had two more victories," forward Jamal Mashburn said. "If we want to be champions, we've got to walk the walk." Point guard Baron Davis said the Hornets are taking a differ ent approach to the remaining 24 games. He said they are not going to pay much attention to their opponents' records. "The rest of the way we can't look at anything else except sac rificing and trying to come out with wins," Davis said. The Hornets are not a slam dunk play for tonight's game however. The first thing you have to look at is the fact the home team has won the last eight straight and the Wizards are in revenge mode tonight and are 5-1 ATS at home against a team that beat them in the previous two meetings. I have also learned over the years that a team that loses a star player comes out aggressive the next game out and plays very good basketball, the most recent example of this was when the Spurs lost Tim Duncan yet came out with an impressive win in the first game without him. With the Hornets just 1-4 ATS in the last five and 3-11 ATS playing their third game in four days with the public jumping all over them this is not a no brainer tonight and Washington could surprise. As far as the total goes, you need a strong stomach when taking a total in any game with the Wizards. they have the potential to come out on all cylinders and score 25 points a quarter, while at the same time they posses an uncanny ability to score 10 points a quarter. Looking at the Hornets side of things they swear defense is the key to tonight and winning games. "There are a lot of games that we lost that I feel we should have won," center Jamaal Magloire said. "I think it just boils down to a lack of defense. I think our rotations and just keeping our man in front of us and contesting shots have been a problem. In order to get ready for the playoffs, we're going to have to grind out every game and stop our opponents." this has been the exact opposite of how the games have been played between these two teams with the over at 5-1-1.the wizards have some very interesting trends as far as the total is concerned tonight. The over is 36-16 when the FG% decreased in the last two games, BUT although the FG% decreased in the past couple of games they shot lights out from behind the 3 point line in the Lakers game which heavily favors the under. The under is 13-3 when they shot at least 50% from behind the three point arc and 6-0 when they made at least ten three pointers and lost. Carmine :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sembach Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Nice stats there CB ;) "while the Magic have rest after a rare road win in Orlando" :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Got me there sometimes my hands type faster than my brain :b good luck tonight Sembach! Carm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Breakdown Cleveland @ Chicago this game has to be warranted as the stinkiest line of the night. If you were to ask 100 people who the better team is in this game 99 of them would probably say cleveland and the 1 who said Chicago would be any member of the Bulls organization. With that said, why is the line just 1-2 points, it looks small and therefore tons of value on the Cavaliers who have won four of the last six on the road. forget it this one jumps out as too good to be true in a heartbeat I have searched several consensus sites and forums an the cavaliers are the overwhelming people's choice for tonight. I don't think people are looking at this game too closely because you have to remember the Cavaliers are just 8-22 on the road this year and if I told you you could take a home team against a road team with that poor of a record and actually get points, you surely would jump on the home team. There is more, the home team has won nine of the last 13 meetings in this series and Chicago has won four of the last five meetings.Cleveland is also playing the end of a stretch of road games and off a overtime game (like the Bulls, but don't look for the Bulls to be tired,Bulls coach Scott Skiles gave his team the day off from practicing, making workouts Sunday optional.) the lack of defense showed in the last game when they gave up an 18 point lead in the fourth to the magic as they lost intensity. The cavaliers are just 3-9 straight up when playing in their third straight road game losing by an average of double digits, which means the longer they are on the road the less focused the become. It is hard to back a team like the Chicago Bulls however. After all they are just 2-13 ATS at home against a team they beat in the previous meeting, 3-17 su as an underdog off a win and 5-11 su when they are on one game su and ATS winning streak. Looking at the total there may be something in the total for tonight's game. The series is a bit deceiving as far as the total is concerned because the under has come in three out of the last four meetings, but it is the over that rules this series coming in 7 out of the last ten times. Also keep in mind that both teams are off OT games and the Bulls are off a game where they shot less than 40% from the field. The Bulls have some interesting over numbers In this one tonight. the over is 10-5 when on a one game SU and ATS streak, 13-4 when facing a team they beat in the last meeting, and 13-5 when they got revenge in the last game. This one should be a closer game as the line would dictate. Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sembach Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Thx mate, u 2 :ok No hard feelings there, aye ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Sembach, No hard feelings we are all after the same prize...to win ..cheers :beer Breakdown Memphis @ San Antonio The Spurs look to play their second game without Tim Duncan. The spurs did very well in the first game without their superstar as they rolled over Denver and the grizzlies come in this one after a nice over the hornets. Usually a teams steps up and wins the first game without the superstar but fall back to earth the following game, setting up the spurs for a loss tonight. the spurs are also just 4-6 ATS the L10 vs memphis and 8-15 ATS after winning by 20 or more. The grizzlies have been straight road warriors of late as they are 8-0-1 in the last nine road contests and have already pr oven they know how to win in San Antonio. I would not look for any letdown after the hornets game, because they are 7-1 ATS after they got revenge in the previous game. the total in this game is off the mark because the linesmakers are still setting them as Duncan was playing, but in fact the spurs plan an entirely new ball game when he is out of the lineup as evident in the last game against denver. One more to go and my selections just before tip off, if you can't figure them out already :D Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Breakdown Detroit @ Utah This game is another one with a line that may be too good to be true, however it is not the side I am talking about although I will cover that one first. The Pistons are playing great and look like they are becoming a solid team with the addition of Rasheed Wallace, while the Jazz are red hot winning three straight to include a win over the Kings on the road. The pistons have dominated this series going 7-3 ATS in the last ten but may overlook this game tonight. They are in the middle of a 5 game west coast string and they need to catch a break somewhere. they were already caught napping against the clippers in the first half, but came back to win in the second half. That comeback win could spell bad news for the Pistons as they are 0-5 ATS after a win when they were trailing after three quarters and 4-7 ATS on the road after a road win. The jazz should be fine with rest and are 11-9 ATS when looking for revenge and are 9-2 ATS after back to back wins. now on to the total and this is where the too good to be true theory comes in. Like the Bulls/Cavs line this total looks incredibly low at 169, but let's look a bit closer at some things. The jazz have yet to be an offensive power house all year and although have switched some schemes, they are playing a piston team that can slow it down with the best of them.The jazz already lost to the Pistons and allowed greater than 50% shooting and when they look at the tapes of the last game they will emphasize defense. The jazz have the under at 16-2 when they play the rematch and 23-4 in a revenge game overall. they also have the under at 14-7 when they are off a win as an underdog and 17-4 at home after an away win. Finally in the last five games at Utah between the jazz and the pistons the under has come in all five times. Selections coming up! :D Carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Selections: Smart Money: Bulls +2.5 Mid Term:Orlando +4.5 Lesson:Memphis / San Antonio over 181.5 Top Findings: Under 169 Detroit / Utah Carm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Adding: Smart Money Play: Over 95 in the first half Chi / Cle Also I will be back for the halftime, any halftime players tonight? Would love to get more involved to get every opinion and thoughts out there. Back with my halftimes. CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! UCONN -4 Solid play seton hall in foul trouble and have no bodies for down low to match up. in the NB the hornets are favored in the second half by more than they were in the entire game, this one has been red hot at 6-0 in the last six, but I am not sure if i want that one just yet. Carm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! okay I can't change the posts when I put selections in them because I do not want anyone to think I am editing my picks.But I need someone to post the 13th post, I am susperstiousis and will not do it..:D I know crazy... Taking the Wizards +8, going with the 6-0 streak and this line has jumped... Also the Magic +3.5 is a solid play for those who may have missed it, the Magic winning but not shooting as well as the Celtics, be warned some Magic members have the flu and they may be tired, sluggish, etc....I still would suggest if you missed out but not a double on the play. CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cd3tops Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 13th.. post is the one above that you posted anyway...?do not understand request for an interim post!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: 13th.. I just have a crazy superstion that if I post the 13th post in my thread I will have bad luck, THANKS! :D CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest abookiesworstnightmare Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re:NBA I gather wizzards was 2nd half? people who dont know will think it was maybe game line :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Re:NBA Sorry brother will look to clarify in the future :D Now the halftime trend is 6-1 and may be ready for a correction. It is coming up again in Cle/Chi, as the Cavs are now -6 in the second half which means the Bulls would have to win by 8 or more. I have the Bulls in this game already so do not think this is quite the place to double up at. The Bulls are out shooting them 50%-37% but getting outrebounded, which means the Cavs should make this a game, however they could be very tired with the recent road trip and off a OT game. No play on the other halftime game, either. CB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Re:NBA Not touching the side but will take the over 93.5 in this game (Bulls/cavs second half) risking that the cavs are not tired here and going for it with a nice chunk of change! Carm :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carmine Bellini Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! May be a late play in college but for now this will be my last play of the night! Memphis second half PK carmine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest abookiesworstnightmare Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Was just Pointing it out man, i know u talked about hornets but most people in here probably wouldn't know who's who's :lol NO offense Guys :b . Nice call on Memphis, Man SA really need Tim Back :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sembach Posted March 2, 2004 Share Posted March 2, 2004 Re: Monday abookiesworstnightmare Exposed! "Was just Pointing it out man, i know u talked about hornets but most people in here probably wouldn't know who's who's" Name and comment suits just fine. :ok :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.