Six Nations Weekend 6 & 7 March

[Guest Paddypunter]

Little bit early in the week but feel there is real value in the handicaps this weekend: England (-21 points) V Ireland (+21 points) Think this is far too high. Ireland will more than likely lose this game but I feel a level of 10-12 points is about right, given their performance against Wales last week (Sorry Garth btw!). With Brian O'Driscoll in splendid form I can see Ireland taking the game to the English in the first half as they will want the scalp of the world champions, plus it is their only chance of getting something out of the tournament as they have already lost to France. They may fall away a bit in the second half as they did against Wales and France, but I cant see a rout on the cards. Also going for an Ireland penalty as the first score of the game, although I haven't checked the price as yet. Italy (+4 points) V Scotland (-4 points) Handicap pegs the teams at virtually evenly matched (I'll probably eat my words when one wins by 3), so i've gone for Scotland in this as I just dont think they are that bad and they will not want to lose the battle of the wooden spoon. The Italians are a very physical side (bunch of fcukin animals:spank ) but Scottish pride is at stake. I Expect to see Scotland winning this one by at least 10 points. Wales (+10 points) V France (- 10 points) Gone for France here. Although Wales have home advantage, which may give them a push in the first quarter of the game, this will fade as soon as France get their nose in front. Gone for a French penalty as the first score of the game as Wales gave away a few dodgy ones against Ireland and I feel the French will take the points to get settled. On a point of interest, anyone know if the roof will be closed on the Millenium for this game or what factors they use in deciding to close the roof or not? Know it was closed for the Carling Cup yesterday. Summary of Bets with 100 pt bank: England V Ireland (+21pts) Ireland Italy V Scotland (-4pts) Scotland Wales V France (-10pts) France 80 pt treble at 10/11 each pays around 6.95 (I Think!) HtFt HT FT Ireland V England ==Ireland England Italy V Scotland ==Scotland Scotland Wales V France ==France France 10 pt treble on this (I'll post odds later) First score of the game : Ireland Penalty 5 pt single. France Penalty 5 pt single. Handicap Spreads are from paddypower. Any views would be very welcome on any of these bets.

[Guest Paddypunter]

Odds for htft and first score Dont have the odds for the htft and first score bets on websites yet so i'll post them after i get them in the shop tomorrow. They' ll probably go up on the site during the week anyway.

[Guest WelshGarth]

Six Nations Weekend 6 & 7 March Hi Paddy I believe the roof isn't closed for Rugby games but I'll check it out, us valleys boys are a bit harder wearing than premiership stars;) Can't argue with your picks there, Englands handicap seems on the high side and I would also be tempted to back Ireland, odds for an Irish penalty as first score should be around 2.5/3 at Bet365.

[Guest DoctorOfDanger]

Re: Six Nations Weekend 6 & 7 March good calls there Paddy haven't got round to posting my analysis yet, but I'd endorse a lot of what you say. The English selection offers a bit of hope for Ireland. Worsely goes missing in big games and is also prone to giving away a few silly penalties. Borthwick and Kay aren't going to frighten people and the only real 'dog' in that pack for me is Dallaglio, and thats at a push. Hill is very quiet for him and Thompson isn't playing well. Balshaw at FB is good news too, although I see Woodward has brought in Simpson-Daniel to the bench if he needs to pull the hook on Balshaw. Dawson is a good call by Woodward but not good news for Ireland. I think England may struggle a little with Irelands rolling maul and may also be under some pressure in the lineout. Can't see either side being dominant in the scrums. England have more running power up front, but the backs (as a group) outside Dawson look much of a muchness to me in attack and defence. 10-15 points seems fairer to me. Scotland are a pretty average side at the moment but Matt Williams is a good coach. Their big problems against Wales looked to be down to poor team execution of defensive tactics more than just bad players. Italys backs have also been very poor this tournament and while their scrum is strong and they will be physically hard their lineout has been appalling. I think Scotland can cope with the pressure (physically) and thier lineout should be sufficiently far ahead to win plenty of ball. Both sides are a little toothless in attack but Scotland probably have that bit more flair, in Patterson and Cussiter, and power, in Danielli to win by 5-10 points. Frances first away match and I think disinterest will be their biggest problem. They tend to do enough to win away games without really stretching away, with a few exceptions in their grand slam a few years back. It might be remembered that while they produced two 50 pointers away from home, they sandwiched it with an 18-16 win at home against Ireland. They are capable therefore of lifting it. I just can't see anywhere that Wales can put significant pressure on France, bar maybe running the ball at them, but I don't think they'll have the posession to do it, and their retention against what is a strong French defence will let them down - which against a team that counterattacks like this can be fatal. I expect Wales to try and play fast and loose after an initial drive or two. However, every man and his dog know that Charvis is really the only dynamic ball carrier they have to launch, especially with Parker out, so expect the French back row to target him and put him back on his arse early. Welsh thinking on their feet is still light years behind that of England (the best) and Australia and France. I expect the tactics here to fail as they won't get the go-forward and will end up running laterally. I think it will be over by half time, much like last week, with probably a 20 point deficit or so. I expect Wales to improve thereafter but with a French side that can pick off tries at anytime, I think 20-30 points is the likely margin.

[Guest Paddypunter]

6 Nations Weekend Thanks for the feedback on those bets. Sticking with what I have gone for above anyway. Odds for HTFT are; Ireland England 11.00 Scotland Scotland 2.00 France France 1.40 Treble pays 30.8 First score Ireland Penalty is 2.75 First score France Penalty is 2.50 I'm really looking forward to this weekend's action now that I have an interest in all the games, where otherwise wouldn't be arsed watching Scotland Italy. Heres to a great session in the boozer Saturday afternoon.:beer :cheers Good luck to all:ok

[Guest Paddypunter]

6 Nations Sorry forgot to say those odds are from paddypower.:ok

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Six Nations Personally I believe the bookies have got the margins just about right in all three games so won't be having a bet on these games. Having a couple of bets on the Super12 analysis under Other Sports - Aussie Corner 6th/7th March for those interested. Good luck to all.