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Please help with betfair strategy


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Hello forum! :cheers I've been thinking about trying the "lay the draw" system. I plan to lay the draw and when a goal is scored to back the draw. There are a couple of things I would like to ask you guys. I already gained some info. - no cup games - no serie A games. I think I need leagues where more goals are scored... - weather! I read somewhere that the hot weather is not good for scoaring goals. So it would be better not to play games on hot days... So this is what I know. But I still need some help. For example: 1. If a goal is scored the 1st half, lets say 38th minute, should I wait for half-time and then back the draw? The odds will go up a bit, but is it worth the risk? 2. If until the 80th minute there is no goal, should I still back the draw to minimize the loss or I should wait for a late goal instead? 3. Should I choose games with obvious favourites or I should stick to derby games? Because let's say in Barca - Xerez game I lay the draw, bur Xerez score first and the odds for backing the draw stay the same or even go lower - what do you guys do in this situation? I would really appreciate any help! :)

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Re: Please help with betfair strategy Hello, mate, :welcome It's not easy to give a reliable answer ur post, as each one has his own preferences when trading. I've been trading for about a year now, and I used that strategy of laying the draw very little, as it didn't appear very profitable. Now, if I want to do that, I usually lay the draw at HT, of course, if the match is draw at HT; there are two reasons; generally, there are more goals in second half, and odds for draw at HT are lower (usually between 2.20 and 2.60), while increase of odds in case of goal is much higher, which means lower liability and higher profit. If you believe there will be goals in first half, then simply lay the draw at HT odds market, again at lower odds, around evens. I can't give a definitive answer your question 1 and 2, as it purely depends on your evaluation of the game and willingness to risk your stake/exposure - I sometimes back at lower odds for a red screen, sometimes let it run till the end, and I found out it does not depend only on overviwe of the game, but also on my mood, if I'm on gambling or "quiet" mood. As for question 3, my reccommendation is to avoid matches where there is a clear favourite - as you noticed, if underdog scores first, odds for draw will not increase, and also initial lay odds are much higher than in match between balanced teams. Finally, I would tell you not to stick to a single strategy; if you're looking fort laying the draw, eventually each game will seem suitable; so, you should try in other markets, too - correct score, over/under, etc. There is a member of this forum, Lockw, who started several threads trading exclusively that strategy, I think you should read them carefully, so you can see his rises and falls, and you might learn well from them: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/trading-betfair-road-richness-88557/ http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/ended-new-glory-hunt-still-trading-bf-91183/ http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/final-attempt-trading-betfair-92775/ Good luck in trading! :ok

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