Please help with betfair strategy

[joroninjata]

Hello forum! :cheers I've been thinking about trying the "lay the draw" system. I plan to lay the draw and when a goal is scored to back the draw. There are a couple of things I would like to ask you guys. I already gained some info. - no cup games - no serie A games. I think I need leagues where more goals are scored... - weather! I read somewhere that the hot weather is not good for scoaring goals. So it would be better not to play games on hot days... So this is what I know. But I still need some help. For example: 1. If a goal is scored the 1st half, lets say 38th minute, should I wait for half-time and then back the draw? The odds will go up a bit, but is it worth the risk? 2. If until the 80th minute there is no goal, should I still back the draw to minimize the loss or I should wait for a late goal instead? 3. Should I choose games with obvious favourites or I should stick to derby games? Because let's say in Barca - Xerez game I lay the draw, bur Xerez score first and the odds for backing the draw stay the same or even go lower - what do you guys do in this situation? I would really appreciate any help! :)

[froment]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Hello, mate, :welcome It's not easy to give a reliable answer ur post, as each one has his own preferences when trading. I've been trading for about a year now, and I used that strategy of laying the draw very little, as it didn't appear very profitable. Now, if I want to do that, I usually lay the draw at HT, of course, if the match is draw at HT; there are two reasons; generally, there are more goals in second half, and odds for draw at HT are lower (usually between 2.20 and 2.60), while increase of odds in case of goal is much higher, which means lower liability and higher profit. If you believe there will be goals in first half, then simply lay the draw at HT odds market, again at lower odds, around evens. I can't give a definitive answer your question 1 and 2, as it purely depends on your evaluation of the game and willingness to risk your stake/exposure - I sometimes back at lower odds for a red screen, sometimes let it run till the end, and I found out it does not depend only on overviwe of the game, but also on my mood, if I'm on gambling or "quiet" mood. As for question 3, my reccommendation is to avoid matches where there is a clear favourite - as you noticed, if underdog scores first, odds for draw will not increase, and also initial lay odds are much higher than in match between balanced teams. Finally, I would tell you not to stick to a single strategy; if you're looking fort laying the draw, eventually each game will seem suitable; so, you should try in other markets, too - correct score, over/under, etc. There is a member of this forum, Lockw, who started several threads trading exclusively that strategy, I think you should read them carefully, so you can see his rises and falls, and you might learn well from them: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/trading-betfair-road-richness-88557/ http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/ended-new-glory-hunt-still-trading-bf-91183/ http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/final-attempt-trading-betfair-92775/ Good luck in trading! :ok

[dannkez2407]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Alternatively if you are not looking to trade in play laying the draw then look, as i did, for common trends and patterns where the odds starting the game reflect the actual chance of the game ending in a draw. I did this, and it has proven very successful, you have to find the comfortable middle ground where the odds for the draw are not too high but you are still confident of a home or away win. Good luck mate......

[jimbeamdp]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy I don't know if it's new but I read somewhere that you can lay a draw and back 0-0 before the game on games that is a live market and during the game if one of the teams score a goal then back the draw for a sure profit 5%-10% each game.If none of the teams score then you win 0-0. I test it it on 5-6 games,if I remember well,but on a game which the underdog scored first then the draw odds stayed the same and I had a loss. You can test that and tell us if it's working :ok

[joroninjata]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Thanks a lot for your advices. I will try and see how it goes... I read about backing 0:0 before the game, so you minimize eventual loss, but I think that with this move you minimize a lot your winnings at the same time. What do you guys think about this?:unsure Froment, you say you stopped using this strategy. I plan to become full time trader. Can you give me some direction, what kind of systems do you suggest that I use? I am last year in uni, chinese philology. I'm sick of this b***s*** and I want to do something for a job that is a hobby at the same time :D By the way, I am from Bulgaria:) How are the things in Montenegro? :cheers

[froment]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Hey, nice to see a neighbour here! :ok Nah, Balkan's things in my country, what to say... These days, Shenghen zone put down need of visas for us, so it feels like more freedom now. And Bulgaria became popular destination here last year, several friends of mine went to Golden Sands, up there at Black Sea, this summer, and they were full of nice impressions. And you'll see, this forum is a quite friendly and useful place! Hmmm, if you're finishing the university, and have no other full-time job, you may try with trading; though, if you have the chance for a decent "regular" job, I think it's better idea not to base your living upon trading; it's quite a windy place, and you need a lot of effort, as well as luck sometimes, to gain a serious profit. I don't say it's impossible, but those who succeed are few in number, I believe that only one or two percents of all traders may earn for living at those bloody blue and pink boxes... As for laying the draw, I quitted it, because I didn't like that strategy, and also didn't like the amount of profit (except when laying first half draw, where profit per match is higher, but strike rate is lower, and laying the draw after half time, which is somewhere in the middle of those two) - for example, if you lay the draw at 3.50, you can usually back it at around 7.00 if goal is scored in "usual" time, between, let's say, 20th and 70th minute; at those lay/back odds, your profit amounts to 15 to 20 % of your liability; but, you can simply back 1+ goals, which is usually available at odds of around 1.10 at the beginning, or at around 1.15 to 1.20 by the middle of first half (or laying correct score 0-0 at appropriate odds), so you can gain the same profit if there is a goal, without bothering to trade in and out... You know, there are basically two ways of trading: either you profit when there is no goals in the match, either you profit when there is a goal; in order not to repeat it now, I explained it in this thread; so, laying the draw is strategy where you need a goal in order to make profit - if there is no goal, you lose; but I prefer the other type of trading, when odds move in my favour as long as there is no goal, that's more suitable to my habits, and those are mainly backing unders, laying overs and laying some correct scores; that's why I said in the first post that some answers to your questions depend on your personality. Backing correct score 0-0 is indeed "insurance bet" for all those strategies that need a goal to make profit, but, you're right, it eats a lot of profit, so you need a lot of patience to build your bank in that way... Anyway, whatever you decide, test is the key step; my advice is to never enter a new market before you followed it in at least ten matches, in order to see the movement of the odds in comparison with initial odds and times of goals scored, so you can quickly decide when you need to trade in and out.

[joroninjata]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Thanks for the info. I'm happy that your friends liked Golden Sands. It depends what you are looking for. I'm happy about Shenghen and the visas. I think that the nations that are in this region should all be in EU. I'm sure that the situation in your country is much better than in Bulgaria. Even your football is going to be better in a couple of years. You have great young players! We almost lost our away game:sad... Anyway thank you for your advices. I will follow them. I was thinking about your systems before, but never really tought serious about them. I guess I will have to examine them more... One thing I will try to do is to back the favourites (Man Utd, Chelsea, Barsa ...) a couple of days before their games. I think that in the game day the odds drop down a bit, because a lot of punters like to bet the favourites. The bad thing is that when the game starts, the odds will go against me if I haven't been able to lay lower... Up till now I have been doing a bit of arbing using the "Rebel betting" software, but it is too much stress if you want to win big money. That's why I want to follow the trends and look for "arbs in the time", that is what we actually do with betfair... Anyway, I really hope that with some statistic and analysis I will be able to make some money in the long run. And about the job - I really think that it is much better to make 500 euro a month and have the freedom that to make 4000 euro and work from 9 to 5 in some stupid office... But that's just me I guess, I have always been like this :tongue2

[millwallchris]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy I've been doing the laying the draw strategy for just over a year now and have had mixed success. Overall i have made a profit but it would have been more if i had stuck to the rule of trading out after the first goal (or even when a team went 2 up). I've been stung by so many last minute equaliser's when i could have traded out but then i've also had injury time winners that have made me a profit. I would advise that you decide how your going to play it and stick to those rules no matter how much you would win after the first goal goes in. A friend of mine also does this system but does a lot of his betting in games that are level at half time or even with 30 minutes left of the game and has been quite successful even though he has got greedy at times and lost a hell of a lot. I tend not to bet on heavy favourites because as has been said if the underdogs score first then the odds really get messed up. I decide what game or games im going to do and just stick to those whether i win or lose. I dont go chasing a lose as i rather wait till the next day or 2 and study what games are coming up. Have a look a lockw thread as he has done something similar and hopefully in the next few days i will be starting my own thread where i'll be posting my lay the draw bets. Good luck however you play it :ok

[joroninjata]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Froment, I would like to ask you about your lay the over or back the under systems. What time after the kick-off do you usually trade? And if there is a goal in the first minutes what do you do - wait for some time or trade for small loss?

[froment]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy Well, I don't have strict rules - it always depends on my evaluation of the game, if I'm watching it on TV or just follow live score, amount I staked, etc. I'm most frequently trading on under 2.5 and under 4.5; in the first market, exiting after 10 to 15 minutes leaves you with profit of about 10% of your initial stake, while exiting at middle of first half will give 20%, sometimes even 25% of the staked amount; generally, higher the odds, faster they drop in the beginning; for example, yesterday at Spurs vs. Man City, unders were at 2.24 prior to kick-off; it dropped down to evens after only 8 minutes, and by 30 minute, it was at 1.65. Though, all statistics showed that there could be plenty of goals, so I didn't get involved in that game, but it appeared to be profitable - first goal was scored not earlier than in finish of first half, and finished over at the end. If there is an early goal, I usually trade out for a loss, as the odds are still somewhat acceptable, unlike the case where there is another goal in first half - in that case it almost doesn't pay off to exit the market, loss amounts to 80% of the stake. As for under 4.5, usual odds are between 1.10 to 1.20; if there are no goals in first half, odds are down to between 1.02 and 1.05, and with only one goal in first half, they are still below initial odds let's say between 1.07 and 1.15, so it's still possible to green up; with two goals in first half, odds are somewhat over the initial ones, somewhere in range from 1.17 to 1.40, and I usually don't exit the market in that case, as I naturally choose the games where I believe there will be no lot of goals, so I'm waiting further decrease of odds in second half, and usually trade out as soon as odds are down to initial values, so no profit/no loss; with three goals in first half, odds are up to evens, and then it's really difficult to decide what to do - depends again on specific conditions for that game. Finally, if I'm so unlucky to hit a game where there are four goals in first half (and although it seems unreal, I had several such a cases!), then it's the same like with 2 goals on under 2.5 market - it does not pay off to exit for a loss, but let it run at least till middle of second half, and hope strikers get tired after furious first half... In under 4.5 market, I don't hedge it, but I put backer's stake in my lay bet to be equal to my stake in my back bet; in that way, I'm maximizing profit if there is under 4.5 goals, and break even (no profit/no loss) if there is five or more goals (which, although seems unlikely, is frequent; let's remember Valencia vs. Real in saturday evening, 0-0 HT, 2-3 FT, and I think day before yesterday one game in Europa league was goalless at HT, and then finished with 5 goals; I had two similar cases recently where I lost my money; one was Genoa vs. Roma, somewhere in september, and another one with Milton Keynes Dons, I don't remember the other team now, also at the beginning of the season; both were 0-0 at HT, and then we saw 5 goals in second half; and in both of them, first 4 goals were so quickly one after the other that I simply had not the time to trade out!). If you have a feeling that game is "surely" under 4.5, but there could be an early goal, then you should wait for that goal and then back under 4.5, as it will send the odds up - if there is a goal before 15 minute, odds for under 4.5 that were, let's say, 1.10 at kick off, will go to around 1.25; in that case, you must be quick, as they may drop for five ticks after only couple of minutes! It's best to set a "spare bet" before kick-off: back under 4.5 at odds of 1.60 to evens, and select "Keep bet" option; naturally, it will not be matched, but it will not be cancelled when market is suspended; so, immediatelly after market returns in-play, your bet is at the top of the queue; and if the goal is very early, you can even get it matched; if no, follow best available back odds, and ammend odds in your bet to remain at the top of the queue and get it matched as soon as possible. I rarely touch under 3.5 market, because it's unreliable; in under 2.5, you have fast drop of the odds, but big danger of only one goal; in under 4.5, odds are not so generous, but you don't have to be afraid of one or even two goals at all; now, under 3.5 seems to have collected only bad sides of those two surrounding markets - odds and their movement are low and slow, and they are sensitive to first goal almost in the same level like under 2.5 Now, I said that only sometimes I get involved in trading where I'm waiting for a goal(s) to green-up; you know, lower the lay odds, higher the profit for the same number of ticks; that's why I sometimes lay under 4.5 when odds are around 1.05; if I'm lucky enough to get an early goal, or two goals which are not too late, as it was case with yesterday game PSG vs. Lens, the odds will skyrocket to 1.10, which is enough to green up for nearly the same profit as initial liability! Another strategy worth considering is backing the "next result" on correct score market, and, like laying the draw, it was one of the strategies "for beginners" which I met when started trading; in this strategy, if current score is 0-0, you back correct score 1-1; if 1-0, you back 2-1, and so on; whatever team scores a goal, odds for the score you backed should drop down enough for a decent profit, but, just like laying the draw, again with some limitations: this strategy works best somewhere between 30 and 75 minute; for example, if you back 1-1 before kick-off, and one team scores a goal in, let's say, 10th minute, it's highly unlikely that in remaining 80 minutes there will be no more goals by that team, and exactly one goal by oposite team, so odds for 1-1 not only will not shorten, but they might even lengthen (similar to case in laying the draw, where underdog scores first); similarly, odds for 1-1 will continue to rise after you have backed it, so if goal is scored late in the game, market will evaluate that oposing team will not have time enough to equalize, so odds again will not decrease sufficiently for successful trade.

Well, those are my experiences… but I must warn you that I’m hardly in profit on Betfair in long run, so it’s better not to rely too much to my advices, but just to take the general ideas, and develop your own preferences! Good luck! :ok

[joroninjata]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy :eek Wow, man, I really thank you for your post. I don't know what to say. I will follow these strategies on paper first and see how it goes. I guess that finally it all comes to the match selection. After this year is over, I'm going to start something with real money. Maybe I will try the "back under 4.5" and "lay over 2.5". If there are some results, I will be posting here or open a new thread. And again - really really thank you for the help. If I visit Montenegro one day, I will call you and buy you a beer! By the way - how are your beaches? I am sick of going to Black sea every year and I want to try something new. And you are really close, I live in Sofia, so I won't be surprised if it is even closer to go to your country than to go to our seaside...

[froment]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy You welcome, mate; glad if it was helpful! :ok And you have a right approach - paper test is the best way to start! I hope that visit to Montenegro and beer you'll pay from money earned at Betfair! :cheers The beaches, as well as entire nature here, are beautiful; there is surely a lot of places worth visiting, and you'll get astonished at some places; I won't count them myself now, you can see in links below. Though, I'm afraid that average tourist will complain about a lot of other things... The roads are poor, and not capable of taking the heavy traffic in the summer, so it sometimes takes more than hour to travel 30 kilometers, water supply is not very reliable, prices in restaurants and bars are inflated, noise from bars and night clubs during the night is uncontrolled and unbearable, and similar stuff that can drive you crazy... As for arrival, I think you can go from Sofia to Belgrade in Serbia, and then you have a dozen of flights to Podgorica (middle Montenegro) and Tivat (coastal area) each day; but you can choose to travel by road, as well, it wouldn't take too long. Though, if you're tired of vacations at Black sea, you might consider vacation not only at the sea, but at the lake - there are two beautiful lakes here (I mean, there are more than 30 smaller lakes, but without adequate touristic infrastructure), Skadarsko lake (the biggest cripto-depression in Balkan - its surface is over the sea level, and its bottom is under the sea level), and Black lake at Durmitor mountain, at around 1.000 meters elevation. Here are couple of links where you can find more: http://www.photo-montenegro.com/ http://www.visit-montenegro.com/ http://www.tourism-montenegro.com/tourism-bp.php http://www.destination-montenegro.com/ And this is image of one of the "wild" beaches I captured about a month ago...

[joroninjata]

Re: Please help with betfair strategy wow, I saw really nice things. It looks totally different from Bulgaria. My idea is to travel with car, I will have more freedom to travel and look around... Anyway, it won't be until the summer. One thing to warn you - not that there is something you can do, but still - be careful not to destroy the nature. That's what we did here in the last 10 years. We had lots of beaches, untouched and wild like yours now, but a lot of people, mostly from England, started to buy properties. So the greedy people started to cut trees and build villas, hotels... Now almost everywhere the coastline is overbuilt. Golden sands is one of the few places that remained almost untouched... Thank you again for everything and I will keep in touch with you... Still can't write PM, but as soon as I can, I will write to you...