Bb Under/over System

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System BB System Update: Starting Bank: £500.00 Bank updated: £528.80 Staked: £80.00 Profit: £28.80 Yield: 36% (won't expect it this high though) :cow

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

5 out of 7... Result eh :clap

Yep looking good so far, a little quiet in here tonight though :unsure

[dannkez2407]

Re: Bb Under/over System nice one mate, seems to be going well so far. my system is quite similar and we have matched on selecions so far in domestic leagues, although mine appears to have more filters and concentrates on all leagues. keep up the good work:clap

[HampshireIan]

Re: Bb Under/over System

Yep looking good so far' date=' a little quiet in here tonight though :unsure[/quote'] Don't worry... the higher that profit and yeild gets, the more will flock to marvel at your system :tongue2

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

nice one mate, seems to be going well so far. my system is quite similar and we have matched on selecions so far in domestic leagues, although mine appears to have more filters and concentrates on all leagues. keep up the good work:clap

I'm gonna check your thread and see how you got on, with your correct scores and LTA. Have you dropped the unders/over now since you had some bad results? Your selections are more rigourous in terms of the filtering process but I just don't have the time at the moment due to other commitments.

[Grex]

Re: Bb Under/over System Congratulations on an excellent start..... let's hope it continues :hope:hope

Yep looking good so far' date=' a little quiet in here tonight though :unsure

Don't worry about the lack of immediate response...... I think most of the contributors to this section of PL are not glued to their computers while matches are in progress. Most like to wait until the next day before basking in the glory of the success of their selections :lol

[ElmariachiC]

Re: Bb Under/over System hey there, i think the others watch this post and look how you system works ... 2-3 days of betting/winning are not that expressive so if you go on nearly like this you'll get much response i've have seen many "system gamblers" fail and never heard from them again in the forum ... so wish you the best, stay cool and successful :ok bye

[dannkez2407]

Re: Bb Under/over System mate i have 2 threads in this section. One does 1x2 and unders.overs and the larger one which kind of explains my life history on here lol now only deals with lay the draw and correct scores. Pop in mate, feedback welcome

[ElmariachiC]

Re: Bb Under/over System

As with most systems there are always ways to make the system stronger by finding ways to filter out selections which may lose and effect profit and yield. Three ways which could be used to filter some selections are: 3. Check team news. Can be very time consuming but if a key player such as a playmaker or top striker is injured, less chances and goals are mostly to happen. This will work in advantage of under 2.5 however it will also identify weaknesses with over 2.5 selections therefore helping you avoid the selection

hey Millwall imo checking team news shouldn't show effect on our analysis. the thing is like in the stock market (efficiency theory) all news are priced in the bookmakers odds. i think you dont have an advantage by analysing games that way 'cause bookies will do that too. well i agree with you that it might influence betdevils o./u. percentage. do you know the formula they use to get their o./u. percentage? thx

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

hey Millwall imo checking team news shouldn't show effect on our analysis. the thing is like in the stock market (efficiency theory) all news are priced in the bookmakers odds. i think you dont have an advantage by analysing games that way 'cause bookies will do that too. well i agree with you that it might influence betdevils o./u. percentage. do you know the formula they use to get their o./u. percentage? thx

To be honest mate I haven't got a bloody clue what formula they use to come up with the probability for each game, for all I know they may even make it up! They must take the number of goals from each sides recent games and the goals scored in recent meetings between both teams divide by something then eventually x 100 to get the percentage. I myself am not won over by this system at this stage as I haven't used betdevil long, I don't know how accurate it is, and just to let people know I'm not trying to convince people that this is faultless as it is most definately not, it will probably have it's bad days, I'm just paper trailing this right now and seeing if I can make a small profit.

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System Wednesday Night Selections Last night's football proved successful for the BB System with 5 of the 7 selections winning, however I feel this is where its going to fall to pieces and I'm going to have to go back to the drawing board as I'm hoping all four of tonights Premier league games finish over 2.5 goals. What's more, is that 3 out of 4 selections need to go over to make a profit Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 £10 Stake Returns £17.20 Chelsea v Portsmouth (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 £10 Stake Returns £15.70 Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 £10 Stake Returns £17.00 Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 £10 Stake Returns £18.00 £40 Stake Potential Returns £67.90 :hope

[ElmariachiC]

Re: Bb Under/over System +10,7 nice mate! 26,75% today ... so far so good ... some late goals in there, Tottenham (have you seen the game? very nice 3:0 in 93rd minute) and late Wigan goal

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System It look like the BB system was going to make its first loss however late goals from Nico Kranjcar and Charles N'Zogbia secured another successful night with 3 out of the 4 Premier League games finishing with 3 goals. Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 £10 Stake Returns £17.20 :@ Chelsea v Portsmouth (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.57 £10 Stake Returns £15.70 :clap Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 £10 Stake Returns £17.00 :clap Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 £10 Stake Returns £18.00 :clap Return £50.70 - £40 Stakes (£10 x 4) = £10.70 Profit :nana Personally, my main bet was overs in the Spurs and Man City game, with a very small punt on a 2-1 Spurs win. Also, I had Wigan on the 1.5 Asian Handicap which made my night. :rollin

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

+10' date='7 nice mate! 26,75% today ... so far so good ... some late goals in there, Tottenham (have you seen the game? very nice 3:0 in 93rd minute) and late Wigan goal[/quote'] Looks like your doing my calculations for me Elmariachic :rollin Yeah I got very lucky tonight, looked like it was destined for a loss. There are bound to be quite alot of Fixtures for Saturday so I might have to filter quite a few.

[ElmariachiC]

Re: Bb Under/over System yeah it worked really good tonight ... and you re right untill 90th minute it looked like a losing day ... one question have you ever found a discrepancy between betdevils o./u. statistic and a bookies odds? tonight every PL game was about 75% (so over 50%) to end over and consistent to it odds less than 2:1 ... did I get it?

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System I didn't quite get the last part but yeah when there is a discrepancy between the two I don't bet on that match. Only when the odds and probability for each game agree I choose that selection, be it unders or overs.

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System Progress Update: Starting Bank: £500 Bank Standing: £539.50 Stake £120 Return: £159.50 Profit: £39.50 Yield: 32.91%

[ElmariachiC]

Re: Bb Under/over System yes i understand your system and your filter but I haven't found one game so far with the discrepancy you described ... and if there are no such games, one could call the system back the "lower" odds (sorry not so easy to explain it in english for me) ... and leave the stats from betdevil aside i hope you understand me, i'm just thinking the two criterias lead to the same result

[oxerife]

Re: Bb Under/over System I've been reading this thread for the last hour and a half and must confess I'm really impressed with your system. Thanks for sharing it with us! :ok There is just one thing i couldn't understand in betdevil's site. Is there any reason why some games don't have the probability analysis that you base your system with? Example: today's games of the europa league don't have the betdevil's probability.

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

I've been reading this thread for the last hour and a half and must confess I'm really impressed with your system. Thanks for sharing it with us! :ok There is just one thing i couldn't understand in betdevil's site. Is there any reason why some games don't have the probability analysis that you base your system with? Example: today's games of the europa league don't have the betdevil's probability.

Okay, Betdevil does not cover the Uefa Cup, the Europa League or any other Cup games because there is not enough statistics and data such as last 12 meetings to come up with a probability for the home win, draw away win, under or over 2.5 goals. Only leagues are covered as teams play each other regularly, usually twice a season so there is sufficient data to provide a probability for outcomes such as the ones I've listed. Hope this helps

[oxerife]

Re: Bb Under/over System

Okay' date=' Betdevil does not cover the Uefa Cup, the Europa League or any other Cup games because there is not enough statistics and data such as last 12 meetings to come up with a probability for the home win, draw away win, under or over 2.5 goals. Only leagues are covered as teams play each other regularly, usually twice a season so there is sufficient data to provide a probability for outcomes such as the ones I've listed. Hope this helps[/quote'] Surely helped! I've just noticed that this maybe only available to silver/gold subscriptions: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats What kind of subscription do you have at the moment?

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

yes i understand your system and your filter but I haven't found one game so far with the discrepancy you described ... and if there are no such games, one could call the system back the "lower" odds (sorry not so easy to explain it in english for me) ... and leave the stats from betdevil aside i hope you understand me, i'm just thinking the two criterias lead to the same result

Right, the reason you don't see any discrepancies between the selections I have picked on this thread so far is because these are the games with no discrepancies. I understand what you mean when you say 'one could call the system back the lower odds' and in one sense you are right. But I only pick games with the lower odds, be it under or over when Betdevil basically agrees with the bookmakers by having a probability percentage of greater than 51%. For example, Chelsea v Portsmouth to finish overs was priced at 1.57 compared to under being 2.54. There is a big price difference so overs is the clear favourate. The probability percentage on Betdevil was 72% for over 2.5 and only 28% for unders. I would back overs as the both criterias agree. When I filter games on a match day, it is rather because the price between unders and overs is too close indicating it could really go either way (unders or overs) or because the odds are representing lets say overs at 1.88, but betdevil have overs at just 48%. It would not represent good value taking 1.88 to have overs when betdevil is making the assumption that the game is slightly more likely to finish unders (52%) than overs (48%) A good example if you look on the Betdevil site is Portsmouth v Liverpool on Saturday. Bookies have the game finishing under 2.5 goals at 1.85 but betdevils probability for the game finishing unders is just 37%. I wouldn't want to bet on the goals outcome as they conflict against each other. Westham v Chelsea is a good example of when I would back overs as bookmakers price it at 1.82 suggesting it is the favourite outcome compared to 2.03 and betdevil have the probability % at 89%. This does seem a bit too high but both of the criterias agree meaning it is a qualifying bet. You might not call it a system it just takes away some of the risk, finds bets which are more likely to win and bets which represent good value. For example, I had Bolton v WestHam to finish overs at 1.94. Betdevil rated it 89% overs but the stats also backed that up, like boltons home matches having over 3.5 goals and westham having a very leaky defence. Hope this helps to clear things up

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

Surely helped! I've just noticed that this maybe only available to silver/gold subscriptions: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats What kind of subscription do you have at the moment?

You don't need a subscription. When you are on the hope page click on matches then all of the leagues will come up. Click on whatever league you choose and the upcoming fixtures will appear. Click on each fixture link and all of the stats and odds will come up.

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

Right, the reason you don't see any discrepancies between the selections I have picked on this thread so far is because these are the games with no discrepancies. I understand what you mean when you say 'one could call the system back the lower odds' and in one sense you are right. But I only pick games with the lower odds, be it under or over when Betdevil basically agrees with the bookmakers by having a probability percentage of greater than 51%. For example, Chelsea v Portsmouth to finish overs was priced at 1.57 compared to under being 2.54. There is a big price difference so overs is the clear favourate. The probability percentage on Betdevil was 72% for over 2.5 and only 28% for unders. I would back overs as the both criterias agree. When I filter games on a match day, it is rather because the price between unders and overs is too close indicating it could really go either way (unders or overs) or because the odds are representing lets say overs at 1.88, but betdevil have overs at just 48%. It would not represent good value taking 1.88 to have overs when betdevil is making the assumption that the game is slightly more likely to finish unders (52%) than overs (48%) A good example if you look on the Betdevil site is Portsmouth v Liverpool on Saturday. Bookies have the game finishing under 2.5 goals at 1.85 but betdevils probability for the game finishing unders is just 37%. I wouldn't want to bet on the goals outcome as they conflict against each other. Westham v Chelsea is a good example of when I would back overs as bookmakers price it at 1.82 suggesting it is the favourite outcome compared to 2.03 and betdevil have the probability % at 89%. This does seem a bit too high but both of the criterias agree meaning it is a qualifying bet. You might not call it a system it just takes away some of the risk, finds bets which are more likely to win and bets which represent good value. For example, I had Bolton v WestHam to finish overs at 1.94. Betdevil rated it 89% overs but the stats also backed that up, like boltons home matches having over 3.5 goals and westham having a very leaky defence. Hope this helps to clear things up

Sorry just one more thing to add to that. I wouldn't for example pick a game which has a 51% probability of scoring under or over 2.5 goals as this is too risky. I generally look for games which are at least over 60% preferrably over 70%

[oxerife]

Re: Bb Under/over System

You don't need a subscription. When you are on the hope page click on matches then all of the leagues will come up. Click on whatever league you choose and the upcoming fixtures will appear. Click on each fixture link and all of the stats and odds will come up.

I know that one doesn't need a subscription. I was just wondering if a Silver or Gold subscription will have access to those probabilities as it is one of the features: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats. Thanks

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

I know that one doesn't need a subscription. I was just wondering if a Silver or Gold subscription will have access to those probabilities as it is one of the features: * All Ratings/Probabilities/Analysis/Enhanced Stats. Thanks

All of the ratings, probabilities and enhanced stats are included as you will see if you click on matches, click on a league then one of its fixtures. You then scroll down and it will all be there.

[oxerife]

Re: Bb Under/over System

All of the ratings' date=' probabilities and enhanced stats are included as you will see if you click on matches, click on a league then one of its fixtures. You then scroll down and it will all be there.[/quote'] Right but the Probability of under/over that you use in your system is unavailable in some matches. Check Everton v BATE Boris where it isn't available and then check Dep Pereira v Atl Bucaram where it is. I was wondering if anyone who has the silver/gold is be able to see the everton v bate probability of under/over or if it simply doesn't exist whatever the type of subscription. Thanks

[Grex]

Re: Bb Under/over System

I was wondering if anyone who has the silver/gold is be able to see the everton v bate probability of under/over or if it simply doesn't exist whatever the type of subscription. Thanks

I think Millwall2010 answered this point in a previous post.... there is not sufficient previous data on European or domestic cup matches to be able to develop a reliable probability. Great start to your system, Millwall2010..... I think it goes against the principle of identifying "value" bets.... but it seems to be working at the moment, so who cares ;)

[Rommeo]

Re: Bb Under/over System Good Job Millwall2010!! I started to watch your system with some doubts but it´s seems that could be very effective. Yesterday my options were almost the same that yours: Lyon v Boulogne (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.8 (65%) :@ Montpellier v Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) @1.62 (66%) :clap Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (75%) :@ Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 (77%) :clap Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 (80%) :clap Paris SG v Lens (Under 2.5 goals) @1.76 (59%) :clap With stake of 10 in each and the total was a profit 10.8 units. My filter is basically like yours but I try also different leagues. I continue to test until this weekend. I will try to help the development of this system. Nevertheless i have some doubts that a so simple system (combining betdevil with bookmakers) could be a golden mine.

[Millwall2010]

Re: Bb Under/over System

Good Job Millwall2010!! I started to watch your system with some doubts but it´s seems that could be very effective. Yesterday my options were almost the same that yours: Lyon v Boulogne (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.8 (65%) :@ Montpellier v Bordeaux (Under 2.5 goals) @1.62 (66%) :clap Burnley v Arsenal (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.72 (75%) :@ Tottenham v Man City (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.70 (77%) :clap Liverpool v Wigan (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.80 (80%) :clap Paris SG v Lens (Under 2.5 goals) @1.76 (59%) :clap With stake of 10 in each and the total was a profit 10.8 units. My filter is basically like yours but I try also different leagues. I continue to test until this weekend. I will try to help the development of this system. Nevertheless i have some doubts that a so simple system (combining betdevil with bookmakers) could be a golden mine.

Thank you for your feedback Rommeo and it's good to see some people making a nice little profit, especially the way some of the results turned out in the premier league last weekend! Just to clear something up, I'm not actually claiming this system is going to make you a fortune but hopefully in the long run, it will make a small, steady profit by filtering most of the games being played in the domestic leagues and leaving the games which are more likely to work in our favour. Furthermore, as odds typically average about 1.7 we only need 60% of selections to win to breakeven or make a very small profit. On a matchday when there are a lot of fixtures, thus betting on quite a few games the stakes are spread and if a loss is made it is very unlikely to be high.