Denman Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 This idea came to me quite a while ago but never tried it out until now that is. Very basic system, will involve just the 92 English league football clubs for the time being. The simply rules are: * New manager needs to be official announced, doesn't included caretakers. * Back the team with the new manager for the first 5 games he's in charge. * If two teams with managers within their first 5 games come up against eahc other, no bet. This is specifically a trial for the time being, starting with a 1000pts bank, 10pt per bet. The idea being that once a new manager takes over the team seems to get a lift and thus perform better. I'll post odds from the best available bookies I can find at the time. For simplisticity I'll start it from now, i.e. any managers already within the 5 games sequnce won't count I'll only start with new managers from this date onwards. Looks like Sheffield Wednesday may be our first selection since their manager has just left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system I do agree with your logic, but I have 2 points to point out. 1) I don't think there are that many new managers readily available across the 92 clubs throughout the season. Which means, it might be difficult to find fixtures to bet every week. 2) You are backing the first 5 games. What if, for example, a bottom club is facing top clubs in the 5-game sequence. There would be a lift, no doubt, but there's only that much a lift can do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system I do agree with your logic, but I have 2 points to point out. 1) I don't think there are that many new managers readily available across the 92 clubs throughout the season. Which means, it might be difficult to find fixtures to bet every week. 2) You are backing the first 5 games. What if, for example, a bottom club is facing top clubs in the 5-game sequence. There would be a lift, no doubt, but there's only that much a lift can do. Yes I'm aware that there won't be bets every week but I think they'll be a reasonable amount, probably around 10 new managers a season I'd say. Obviously looking to expand it into more leagues if it proves successful, easiest to do the English league for now as the news on new managers is more easily available Your second point is a good one, it would probably be more advisable to lay the opposing team if it happens to be the top side in the league against the bottom for example. Probably need some sort of preivous data to discover whether this would be better or not. For the time being I'm just going to keep it simple by doing backing only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system this may or may not be of use :ok http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/manager-leaving-syndrome-24750/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system this may or may not be of use :ok http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/manager-leaving-syndrome-24750/ Thanks, that made interesting read and showed that it is possible to a make a profit for the period that it was tested for there, was only over the first game in charge though. I've picked 5 games because I'd estimate that as being a reasonable amount of games for the new manager effect to last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Notts County manager resigned after just seven weeks in charge. Keep a lookout for when they appoint a new manager. Although it appears something is not quite right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 16, 2009 Author Share Posted December 16, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Rodgers leaves Reading http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/r/reading/8417263.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 18, 2009 Author Share Posted December 18, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Paul Hart becomes the new QPR manager. Therefore QPR's next 5 games are all selections for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 18, 2009 Author Share Posted December 18, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Only one bet I can see for this weekend, Notts County and Reading are yet to appoint new managers, whilst QPR acted swiftly to bring in Paul Hart. Saturday 19th December QPR to beat Sheffield Utd - 10pts @ 2.40 (Bet365/Betfred) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyIrishPunter Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Looks like Mark Hughes might be leaving Man City which would be another oppurtunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Looks like Mark Hughes might be leaving Man City which would be another oppurtunity. Indeed, looks like Mancini as been appointed. Can add City's next 5 league games to my system now. QPR could only manage a 1-1 draw today by the way, so the first bet was a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 23, 2009 Author Share Posted December 23, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Mark Yates has been appointed the new Cheltenham Town manager, their next 5 games will be part of the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 24, 2009 Author Share Posted December 24, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Saturday 26th December Man City to beat Stoke City - 10pts @ 1.45 (Coral) QPR to beat Bristol City - 10pts @ 2.1 (Skybet/Totesport/Boylesport/Coral) Cheltenham to beat Bournemouth - 10pts @ 3.25 (Bet365/Skybet/William Hill) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 28, 2009 Author Share Posted December 28, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system 2 out of 3 for Saturday, same three teams for the next lot. Monday 28th December Man City to beat Wolves - 10pts @ 1.80 (Various) QPR to beat Ipswich - 10pts @ 3.1 (Bet365) Cheltenham to beat Dag & Red - 10pts @ 6 (Betfred/Paddy Power) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Congrats on your Cheltenham!! Great odds! Just read that Preston's manager got sacked. Another club to add into your system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 30, 2009 Author Share Posted December 30, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Indeed shall keep a lookout for Preston appointing a new manager. Its FA Cup this weekend so no bets for my system. Shall post up results for selections so far soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 30, 2009 Author Share Posted December 30, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Bolton have sacked Megson also it was revealed today. They will form part of my selections once they announce a new full-time manager. As promised here and the results so far: Results Saturday 19th December QPR to beat Sheffield Utd @ 2.40 Result: QPR 1-1 Sheff Utd -10.00 ------------------------------------------------ Saturday 26th December Man City to beat Stoke City @ 1.45 Result: Man City 2-0 Stoke City +4.50 QPR to beat Bristol City @ 2.10 Result: QPR 2-1 Bristol City +11.00 Cheltenham to beat Bournemouth @ 3.25 Result: Cheltenham 0-1 Bournemouth -10.00 ------------------------------------------------ Monday 28th December Man City to beat Wolves @ 1.80 Result: Wolves 0-3 Man City+8.00 QPR to beat Ipswich @ 3.10 Result: Ipswich 3-0 QPR -10.00 Cheltenham to beat Dag & Red @ 6.00 Result: Dag & Red 0-2 Cheltenham +50.00 ------------------------------------------------ Overall Summary Bets 7, Won 4, Lost 3 Start Bank: 1000.00pts Current Bank: 1043.50pts P/L: +43.50pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Re: New manager honeymoon period system It seems like quite a couple of managers got the sack recently. This would be hilarious: "Former Manchester City boss Mark Hughes has emerged as an early favourite to replace Megson." :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 8, 2010 Author Share Posted January 8, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Owen Coyle leaves Burnley to takeover at Bolton. Recentley departed Preston boss Alan Irvine as been appointed as the new Sheffield Wednesday boss. Whilst Fergie Jr fills the hotseast left by Irvine at Preston. Sort of like managerial music chairs at the moment, wouldn't suprise me if Megson ended up at Burnley! Anyways Bolton, Wednesday and Preston all are now system selections for their next five league games. We would have had a good number of selections this weekend but for the weather. Bolton, Preston, QPR & Cheltenham games have all been postponed, Man City's match is on Monday and I wouldn't be suprised if that fell vicitm to the weather also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Monday 11th January Man City to beat Blackburn - 10pts @ 1.44 (Paddy Power) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system burnley signed up laws then!!!! not fancying their chances in the first game against man u on saturday at old trafford, but the odds are around 20-25 so would certainly boost your profits :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 13, 2010 Share Posted January 13, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system LOL! I think laying Man Utd would be good enough. But it would really be the shocker of the season if Burnley repeats Leeds' performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 16, 2010 Author Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Haha indeed it would. But to remain true to the system I'm going to be doing back bets only on the first five games with the new manager in charge as per the rules. Saturday 16th January Everton v Man City - 10pts Win @ 2.75 (Victor Chandler) Man Utd v Burnley - 10pts Win @ 19 (Various) Blackpool v QPR - 10pts Win @ 3.5 (Coral) Bristol City v Preston - 10pts Win @ 3.5 (Various) Barnsley v Sheff Wed - 10pts Win @ 4 (Stan James) Grimsby v Cheltenham - 10pts @ 2.8 (Various) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Sunday 17th January Bolton v Arsenal - 10pts @ 7 (Sky Bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: New manager honeymoon period system Will post results here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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