Otter4 Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 I have been looking at some statistics relating to football matches and specifically +1.5 goals in a match. It appears as if there is a potential edge based on the teams percentage of matches (whereby more than 1.5 goals have been scored in their matches this season) and the odds offered on betfair. Eg. This season there have been 2 or more goals in: 86% Everton matches and 93% Tottenham matches. So based on the combined stat's, +1.5 goals are currently occuring aproximately 9 times out of 10. The odds on betfair are 1.32 which is much better. Hypothetical - 10 bets in this scenario at 10 points per bet Now if the odds stack up and i were to win 9 times out of the 10 mythical bets. I would have won 28.88 (minus 5% = £27.44) and lost £10 which is a profit of £17.44. The system will rely on a high strike rate and will hopefully show a steady growth to cover the inevitable losses that will occur along the way. I will start with a bank of 100 points and each bet will be 10 points. Selections will require a better percentage strike rate of 1.5 goals or more for the teams involved than the odds offered. This will not be a massie money spinner but hopefully a steady sensible system. Wish me luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Bet 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Oops sorry - Bet 1. Everton v Tottenham +1.5 goals @ 1.32 = 10 points (89% of games +1.5) Bet 2. West Ham v Man Utd +1.5 goals @ 1.29 = 10 points (83%) Bet 3. Wolves v Bolton +1.5 @ 1.38 = 10 points (78%) Bet 4. Man c v Chelsea @ 1.32 = 10 points (85%) Bet 5. Villa v Hull @ 1.25 = 10 points (87%) Bet 6. Blackburn v Liverpool @1.36 = 10 points (90%) Total Staked 60 points Bank now = 40 points :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ren1969 Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! NO 0-0, 1-0, 0-1...:lol good luck otter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Bet 1. Everton v Tottenham +1.5 goals @ 1.32 = 10 points (89%):clap Bet 2. West Ham v Man Utd +1.5 goals @ 1.29 = 10 points (83%):clap Bet 3. Wolves v Bolton +1.5 @ 1.38 = 10 points (78%):clap Bet 4. Man c v Chelsea @ 1.32 = 10 points (85%):clap Bet 5. Villa v Hull @ 1.25 = 10 points (87%):clap Bet 6. Blackburn v Liverpool @1.36 = 10 points (90%):puke Total staked = 60points Total returns =64.79 5 easy winners and 1 0-0. Stat's backed up the liverpool game, but apparently it was an awful chanceless game. Still, a small profit for the first week; which is what this system is all about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Thanks Ren - :hope for a steady return! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Bet 7. Lille v Lyon +1.5 @1.45 = 10 points (79%) Bank now stands at 94.79 after this bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Bet 7. Lille v Lyon +1.5 @1.45 = 10 points (79%) :nana 2 GOALS in 22mins....4 in 37 mins. I don't really like betting on frech games in the overs market, but the stats didn't lie this time. +4.29 (after commission) Bank now equals 109.08 Bets = 7 Winners = 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Hi Otter Well done with your first set of results(trust Loserpool to let you down eh). Can you please point me in the right direction to find these stats This season there have been 2 or more goals in: 86% Everton matches and 93% Tottenham matches. Thx in advance. THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Thanks the man - just from a database that i have been working on. Sure you could find it on a website though. Bet 8. Watford v QPR +1.5 @ 1.3 = 10 points (87%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Bet 8. Watford v QPR +1.5 @ 1.3 = 10 points (87%):clap +2.85 Bank = 111.83 Profit + 11.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jk Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Going nicely Otter. It's a sensible system, finding value in a potentially profitable market is a very smart move and one that far too many less experienced punters don't have the patience or discapline to do. Do you think you would ever look into further stats, I.E % of overs for home/away games, % of overs in the last 3/6 games? etc. etc. There's a fair few filters that could possibly improve the strike rate over time, but you're right to start off with a basic system and keep it simple. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Cheers JK Good points - I have been looking at home / away games as an incidental piece of extra info. I defo think there is mileage in recent form as well (if so then Liverpool would n't have been a selection ;) ) I may well add to it as the system progresses. Found a big value bet for today. Bet 9. Beira Mar v Gil Vicente (portugal 2) +1.5 = 10 points @ 1.54 (78%) :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Well unless I'm much mistaken you only need 2x more winners and you've already hit that hypothetical 90% s/r:clap A really interesting idea and one I shall keep an eye on.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! One in the bag already Otter Good luck on this THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Well unless I'm much mistaken you only need 2x more winners and you've already hit that hypothetical 90% s/r:clap Cheers hapygooner:) hopefully will get the 90% although there are 2 variants in my favour a) the 8 matches so far have had a combined percentage chance of 84 % - so realistically i'm looking for closer to an 8 in 10 strike rate b) i've taken some much bigger prices than expeccted on some selections, so even if i lose one out of the next 2 bets, i will still scrape a small profit (let's hope for 2 winners though) cheers for the interest:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! cheers The man - nice early goal - coming up to half time now :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Thats it M8 1-1 Go & have a few beers THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! cheers buddy - that was huge odds (for the system) when you take the % rating into account. Nice winner. Bet 9. Beira Mar v Gil Vicente (portugal 2) +1.5 = 10 points @ 1.54 (78%) +5.13 :clap Bank now = 116.96 (+16.96) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! GR8 I managed to get 1.59(after 3mins played) You have a private message :ok THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! I thought you might be interested to know but your idea intrigued me so much I wanted to work out some kind of simple system and do a little back testing. Only gone through last weekends top leagues (England, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Turkey & Holland) BUT.......in that limited sample of games the s/r I looked at was......get this.......21-0:eek By looking at home teams previous home record in last 6 and away teams away record in last 6 and then omitting any with more than 1 game under 2 goals on either side I even managed to go through an entire French card and find 2 winners. You could be onto something here you really could:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Hi Happygooner Did you mean 2 losers in french games? THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Hi Happygooner Did you mean 2 losers in french games? THE MAN No, winners - if the 1.5 market was open on all of those leagues then it was 21-0 over the weekend. Without the French league 19-0. I intend to track it properly this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Ah Comprendi :ok THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Would anybody care to advise if there is a general rule as to which games are available for this market and which aren't at betfair? Seems totally random in some leagues. French for example has only 2 games on Saturday from the whole card. What makes these games so special? Not easy to devise a system when you have to check every single game on betfair each day just to see if they have the +1.5 market:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Wotcha HG Try typing in 1.5 in the search box on left hand side THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Didn't realise the total goals market works just as well so this will increase selections quite a bit. Thanks:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! UR :welcome THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! Hi otter4 I just wanted to know whether the percentage by each fixture is the probability of each match scoring over 1.5 goals. If so where did you get this from? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted December 12, 2009 Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: +1.5 goals ....Please!!! I can't believe such a simple but fantastic idea hasn't been added upon yet. If you're not going to post these anymore I will happily post the ones I'm tracking:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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