skylark2009 Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 £829.25 TO ???? (BOOM OR BUST - CONTINUED) After 2 months off, it's time to restart this GH in a new thread. Below is a quick recap of the overall results for the original GH - http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/200-boom-bust-83911/ -, Which ran for about 5 months resulting into an overall profit of £829.25. Bets145Wins68Placed (E/W bets)4Strike rate46.90%Total staked7313.20Total returns incl stake8142.45Profit/loss829.25Yield11.34% The selection methods I used in the original will remain the same, ( essentially I have been filtering a 10 year database, which consists of last time out winners). The staking however will be different, this will consist of two levels this time ( level stakes and level stakes * 2.5 rounded down to the nearest £). As with the original GH, I'll recalculate the stakes at the end of each betting day as the betting bank increases/decreases. I've recently opened an account with Betfair, so I now have the means to place 'Place Only' bets and 'Lay' bets too. Which if I use, would mean that the calculated stakes for potential lay bets would become the liability. Also, there is the potential to trade, use place savers etc. The first level stake will be 1/25 or 4% of the betting bank, which makes the second level stake (the BOOM OR BUST element of the GH), 1/10 or 10% of the betting bank. Carrying over the betting bank of £829.25 from the original GH gives us our starting point stakes. Level One stake - £829.25 / 0.04 = £33.17 rounded down to £33.00 Level Two stake - £33.00 * 2.5 = £82.50 rounded down to £82.00 I'll start this GH proper from December 1st. Expected No. Win bets (Dec) 20 Expected No. Place bets (Dec) ?? Expected No. Lay bets (Dec) ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzmorris Posted December 1, 2009 Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Looking forward to this thread being renewed as i was following your original one. Good luck and may your success continue :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Looking forward to this thread being renewed as i was following your original one. Good luck and may your success continue :clap Thanks for the support Jazz, I hope this GH proves to be as good as the first one. :hope Now onto the first bet(s) for BOOM OR BUST (Part II). Mr Willis in the 1.00 at Lingfield qualifies as a 1pt win bet and I've placed the bet with Boylesport. Secondary to this bet is a potential 1pt lay bet on Red Suede Shoes in the same race, but Betfair is offline at the moment. I'll post sometime after 11.00 am whether or not Red Suede Shoes is bet#2. #1 1.00 Lingfield Mr Willis 1pt win @ 5/4 Boylesport (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 1, 2009 Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Yeah good luck skylark. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Yeah good luck skylark. :hope Thanks Spooner. :ok All the luck needed here as I have expanded the bet types to include lay betting. Betfair is back online now, so I have placed a lay bet on Red Suede Shoes which will become bet no. 2 for this GH. I've set the liability to equal a 1pt stake (£33.00 in this case) and have matched the bet for £32.98 at odds of 7.2 to win £5.05 after commision if successful. #2 1.00 Lingfield Red Suede Shoes 1pt lay @ 7.2 to win 5.05 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daviej1873 Posted December 1, 2009 Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) good luck mate:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 2, 2009 Author Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) After yesterday's wins, the adjusted 1pt level stake is now £35.00, which will be used for today's two qualifers. The first is Blue Lyric in the 7.50 at Kempton and the second, Satwa Gold, is in the 8.20 at Kempton. #3 7.50 Kempton Blue Lyric 1pt win @ 5/6 Vcbet (BOG) #4 8.20 Kempton Satwa Gold 1pt win @ 2/1 Vcbet (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 2, 2009 Author Share Posted December 2, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) One qualifier in the 6.15 at Wolverhampton, the favourite Prohibition qualifies as a 1pt bet given the current price available. If the price shortened up considerably to less than 1/1 then it would qualify as a 2.5pt bet. For the time being, I've placed a 1pt bet on Prohibition with two bookies @ 6/5. If the price shortens up later, then I'll consider upping this to a 2.5pt bet. I'll post later if this happens. Oriental Cavalier in the same race has the potential to be a 1pt lay bet, but the current price is around 5/1 or 6/1 which is a little bit to big to play. #5 6.15 Wolverhampton Prohibition 1pt win @ 6/5 - 17.00 with Corals (BOG), 17.00 with Bet365 (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzmorris Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) The 2nd lay for this GH. Tartufo Dolce in the 12.20 at Southwell is a 1pt lay bet. The bet has been matched for 33.00 @ 5.4 to win 7.13 if successful. #6 12.20 Southwell Tartufo Dolce 1pt lay @ 5.4 to win 7.13 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) In the 2.20 at Southwell Lucky Punt has the potential to be a 1pt win bet, but only if the odds drop below 1/1. However, given the current place odds available on Betfair I'll put this one up as a 1pt place bet instead. #7 2.20 Southwell Lucky Punt 1pt place @ 1.49 (after commission) Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Well done so far Skylark :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) just come across this,good luck skylark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Well done so far Skylark :clap:clap just come across this' date='good luck skylark [/quote'] Thanks Kev. :ok Thanks Twinny. :ok Two qualifers, both at Southwell. The first is Shadows Lengthen in the 1.30 and the second is Diamond Blade in the 3.30, They are both 2½pt bets. I've put part the the bets on now with Betfair, and hopefully should be able to put the remainder on later when the other bookies start to show their prices and I get the chance to look for better SP's. Unfortunately, due to work commitments, I may not be able to post whether I have put the remainder on until after the races. :unsure Both bets stand as 2½pt bets, so I'll post snapshots of all the bets in the post race update. :ok #8 1.30 Southwell Shadows Lengthen 2½pts win - 1pt win placed with Betfair @ odds minus commission of 0.716, --- 1½pts to be placed later. :hope #9 3.30 Southwell Diamond Blade 2½pts win - 1pt win placed with Betfair @ odds minus commission of 2.169, --- 1½pts to be placed later. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) There are two possible win bets tomorrow, but both will be dependent on the likely final SP's. The first possible is Moonbeam Dancer in the 5.30 at Kempton, this one could qualify as a 1pt win bet if the likely SP is less than or equal to 3/1 or a 2½pt win bet if the likely SP drops to less than or equal to 1/1. Using the current Betfair odds as a guide (around 9/4) suggest this could become a 1pt bet. The second possible is Topcroft in the 6.30 at Kempton, this looks very likely to qualify as a 1pt win bet ( current Betfair odds of around 6/4), but as with the previous possible selection could become a 2½pt win bet if the likely SP is 1/1 or less. I'll post more on both tomorrow, as I should be back home around 5.00pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Glad to see you back Skylark, good start so far. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) I agree mate, it's good to see you back. :clap Your last one went fantastically well- let's hope this one continues in a similar vein :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Glad to see you back Skylark, good start so far. :ok I agree mate, it's good to see you back. :clap Your last one went fantastically well- let's hope this one continues in a similar vein :hope __________________ Largest ever!! Scotty's Long Term Football Drip - 350 winners in a row!! Thanks Denman. :ok Thanks Scotty. :ok Slightly different format from the original, but hopefully should be just as good with the results. :hope Recap for yesterday. The two potential qualifiers both stand at the time of this post. I've placed both bets as 1pt win bets only, but Topcroft in the 6.30 could yet become a 2½pt win bet if the odds continue to drop. I'll probably wait until very close to the off time before placing the remaining 1½pts though. #10 5.30 Kempton Moonbeam Dancer 1pt win 5/2 Skybet #11 6.30 Kempton Topcroft 1pt win @ 11/10 Skybet - possible extra 1½pts yet to place if odds drop further! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Update to bet#11 Topcroft's odds are now 1/1 with most firms, so the remaining 1½pts has been placed with Boylesport. #11 6.30 Kempton Topcroft 2½pts win @ 21/20 - 1pt win @ 11/10 Skybet, 1½pts win @ 1/1 Boylesport (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Well done so far :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Well done so far :clap:clap __________________ http://kevsuls.blogspot.com/ http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/Enforce-the-Law/ Many thanks Kevsul. :ok Two bets today, a 1pt lay bet and a 1pt win bet. The 1pt lay bet is Kuanyao in th 6.20 at Wolverhampton to win 15.67 if successful. I'm also toying with possibly putting this up as a 1pt place bet too, if so, I'll post this one closer to the off time.:unsure The 1pt win bet is on Bubbly Braveheart in the 7.20 at Wolverhampton. #12 6.20 Kuanyao 1pt lay @ 3.8 to win 15.67 Betfair #13 7.20 Bubbly Braveheart 1pt win @ 85/40 VCbet (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) Four bets today, two win bets, one place bet and one lay bet. so in time order the bets are 2½pts win on Privare Equity in the 4.25 at Kempton, 1pt place on Imprimis Tagula, 1pt lay on Seek The Fair Land both in the 4.55 at Kempton and a 1pt win on Wunder Strike in the 5.25 at Kempton. #14 4.25 Kempton Private Equity 2½pts win @ 8/11 Vcbet (BOG) #15 4.55 Kempton Imprimis Tagula 1pt place @ 1.9025 (after commission) Betfair #16 4.55 Kempton Seek The Fair Land 1pt lay @ 3.5 to win 16.72 Betfair #17 5.25 Kempton Wunder Strike 1pt win @ 13/8 Vcbet (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: £829.25 To ???? (BOOM OR BUST - Continued) good luck with these skylark:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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