KEY RACE: Hennessy Gold Cup - Newbury Sat 28th Nov: Winner Denman

[bowles10]

Hennessy is next saturday Opinions etc in here please Dec's to be put up during the week

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Hennessy Gold Cup - Newbury Sat 28th Nov Have not done a 100% book yet, prices shown were best bookmakers prices this morning. Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury. Horses are in betting order of last week. In brackets are long handicap weights. 9 11-12 Denman 174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when struggling with heart problems. Nicholls is making all the right noises about him this year, and apparently looked well in racecourse gallop at Exeter. Although stables runners generally need a run to bring them on this term. Effective from good to heavy going. 4/1 fav. R. Walsh (stable form (SF) 6 out of 10) 6 10-4 What A Friend 152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer's opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in RSA, starting second favourite. Acts on a soft surface, winner of three finisher race on good. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. 7/1 S. Thomas (SF 6/10) 7 10-8 Barbers Shop 156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well, 7^th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but excellent record fresh (2^nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don't place too much emphasis on stamina. Probably acts on a sound surface (winner of simple tasks) and soft. 13/2 B. Gerraghty (SF 10/10) First time cheek pieces. 7 10-6 Killyglen 154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09. Before that, pulled up in RSA chase after an interrupted preparation. Below form at Carlisle on reappearance, but over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Only defeats so far over fences when not 100% fit? Second season chaser with potential to improve. Acts on soft and goes well on a soft surface. 8/1 D. O'Regan (SF 7/10) 7 10-0 Cappa Bleu 148 Has experience in point to points, only two starts over "fences", Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham when trained by Sheila Crow. Age and physical scope to make a better horse with professional handling this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3^rd over inadequate 2m4f on return in October. Expected to do better at this distance. 10/1 W. Hutchinson (SF 6/10) 9 10-3 Gone To Lunch 151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he's usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly at his very best away from very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. 16/1 S. Durack (SF 4/10) 8 10-4 Casey Jones 152 Just behind War Of Attrition and My Will last time. Best in of the three at these weights and may be better suited by going left handed here. Has been inconsistent in the past. Possibly needs more throttle to trouble the principles. Probably acts on any going. Has won at 3m1f on good ground and bred to stay further. 20/1 N. Fehily (SF 6/10) tongue tied. 9 10-0 (9-12) Ballyfitz 146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in Paddy Power (2m5f, 4^th). Staying on which suggest has a chance at 3m2f110yds. Will have to improve his jumping though, best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. Goes well with give in the ground. Currently 2lbs out of the handicap. 20/1 P. Brennen (SF 7/10) 9 10-2 Snowy Morning 150 Irish, dropped 6lbs by the handicapper since running 9^th in National. Thought by trainer to be never quite right last season. Now just 5lbs higher than when 3^rd in 08 renewal. Is not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman's Hennessy. Equally effective on a firm and soft surface. 25/1 P. Townend (SF 9/10) 8 10-0 (9-11) Nenuphar Collonges 145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3^rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6^th at Wincanton. Is 3lbs out of the handicap. Won on good going, best form under softer conditions at Cheltenham. 25/1 R. Thornton (SF 5/10) Blinkered. 9 10-9 My Will 157 Suited by 3m2f and more. Ran a good race to be 5^th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Little below form 3^rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2^nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field. Winner on heavy and placed in two "Whitbreads" on a firm surface. 33/1 N. Schofield (SF 6/10) 8 10-4 An Accordian 152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since when pulled up. Equally effective on good and soft ground, probably heavy. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. 33/1 T. Scudamore (SF 6/10) blinkered and tongue tied. 9 10-0 (9-11) State Of Play 145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Though 3lbs out of the handicap here. Off a mark 5lbs higher when 4^th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Acts on soft and a sound surface, yet to race on heavy. Stable has better fancied Cappa Bleu. 16/1 P. Moloney (SF 6/10) 7 10-0 (9-11) Kornati Kid 145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. Currently 3lbs out of the handicap. 33/1 R. Johnson (SF 6/10) 8 10-0 (9-11) Niche Market 145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed race first time this season, could be trained specifically for Aintree this time around. Best efforts on good and good-soft, but will need a test at this trip to play to his stamina. 40/1 A. Glassonberry (3) (SF 6/10) 9 10-13 Mon Mome 161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower than this. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Has been second at the Cheltenham Festival on good ground, but best chance here with a test of stamina. Might have another primary target and need reappearance. 50/1 A. Coleman (SF 6/10) 10 11-0 Joe Lively 162 Genuine stayer last season, injured in February and only 5^th in Ireland on return. Winner on every type of surface prior to inkury. Possibly suited by conditions which place an emphasis on stamina these days. 40/1 G. Hawkins (3) (SF 6/10) 8 10-0 (9-11) New Alco 145 Last start on April 23^rd 2008. Now runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian in 08 William Hill Handicap. Now weighted to finish alongside if it was not for being 3lbs out of the handicap. May not stay this trip in very testing conditions. 40/1 M. O'Connell (SF 6/10) 10 10-6 War Of Attrition 154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3^rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground. 40/1 N. (Slippers) Madden(SF 5/10) 9 10-0 Chelsea Harbour 148 Irish chaser, only 6^th at Cheltenham last time, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina so the softer the better, winner on heavy. 50/1 A. Lynch (SF 4/10) Blinkers (for the first time) have to work the oracle. 9 10-0 (9-7) Offshore Account 141 Prolific winner in his novice year culminating in Grade 1 Champion Novices chase at Punchestown. Benefiting from the last fence fall of Aces Four (2^nd to Denman in RSA). That win (best run) was on a firm surface, but does have winning form on heavy. Lightly raced and not much form since, though did run well for a long way in last year's Grand National. Half brother to The Listener. Well handicapped despite being 7lbs out of the handicap, if (big IF) still able. 40/1 D. Casey (SF 4/10) Tongue tied.