Djordje Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Bets counter19Strike rate0.58Staked135.17Profit44.50Yield32.92 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Excellent results :clap..... but please don't start using the term "Holy Grail" (well, not yet, anyway)....... the kiss-of-death :ok :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System :lol I won't, as bad run is probably just behind the corner ;) btw, wrong calculations in my previous post, here is the good one Bets counter18Strike rate0.61Staked125.17Profit54.50Yield43.54 Previous table included tomorrow's Hull vs Everton bet as a losing one ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Even better :loon..... as a matter of interest, why are you concentrating only on matches with ratings of +1, 0 and -1 ? Is this because you have more historical data which falls into this group, and therefore more confidence ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Even better :loon..... as a matter of interest' date= why are you concentrating only on matches with ratings of +1, 0 and -1 ? Is this because you have more historical data which falls into this group, and therefore more confidence ? exactly :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 25, 2009 Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Amazing.... another under-dog winner :clap..... again, I chickened out and only layed Everton..... "o ye of little faith" (old English) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System As you say, if you have a system based on statistics with clearly defined "filters", then you have to stick to it....... good luck for this weekend :hope. By the way, how do you decide, for a selected game, whether to "back" one team or "lay" the other ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System As you say, if you have a system based on statistics with clearly defined "filters", then you have to stick to it....... good luck for this weekend :hope. By the way, how do you decide, for a selected game, whether to "back" one team or "lay" the other ? Well, I dont have exact rule for that yet. Obviously, all this is about numbers and so called 'value', and if only one outcome is 'value' I back it. Alternative scenario is that 'value' is on one team and draw, and in those situations I go for 'lay'. For example, last wednesday's match against Hull and Everton was the example of first situation, where 'value' was only on home win, so I decided to back Hull. Example for alternative scenario would be Cardiff vs Ipswich on Sunday, where 'value' is on both draw and away win, so 'lay' looks like logical choice. In situations like this one, using asian handicap looks like good decision, but I decided not to include asian handicap in this thread in order to keep it as simple as possible. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted November 27, 2009 Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System How do you decide your stake size? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System How do you decide your stake size? It's some modification of Kelly criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 29, 2009 Author Share Posted November 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glory6 Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Lay Cardiff 1.83 betfair 10 8.3 1:2 won -8.30 Hi Mate, is it only a spelling mistake? Or did you calculate it in this way as well - as a winner with minus? :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Hi Mate, is it only a spelling mistake? Or did you calculate it in this way as well - as a winner with minus? :eek that's mistake of course ;) profit is obviously +10.00 for that one :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 4, 2009 Author Share Posted December 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Well done, Djordje :clap:clap..... I have to admit that I was very dubious about the two selections, but both strolled in.... congratulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System DateHostRatingGuestH[%]D[%]A[%]HDA Bet Odds Stake Liability12/13/2009Liverpool-1Arsenal48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Back Liverpool3.42.25 sky bet 6 612/12/2009Sheffield Utd1Crystal Palace44.91%30.14%24.95%2.233.324.01 Lay Sheff Utd3.52.06 betfair 7 7.4212/13/2009Middlesbrough1Cardiff44.91%30.14%24.95%2.233.324.01 Back Draw3.43.40 ladbrokes 1 112/12/2009Bradford-1Rotherham48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Back Bradford3.42.50 betfred 10 1012/12/2009Notts County-1Accrington48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Lay Notts County41.61 betfair 10 6.1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System DateHostRatingGuestH[%]D[%]A[%]HDA Bet Odds Stake Liability Result Profit12/12/2009Sheffield Utd1Crystal Palace44.91%30.14%24.95%2.233.324.01 Lay Sheff Utd3.52.06 betfair 7 7.42 2:0 lost -7.4212/12/2009Bradford-1Rotherham48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Back Bradford3.42.50 betfred 10 10 2:4 lost -10.0012/12/2009Notts County-1Accrington48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Lay Notts County41.61 betfair 10 6.1 1:2 won 10.00 Two more pending :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System DateHostRatingGuestH[%]D[%]A[%]HDA Bet Odds Stake Liability Result Profit12/13/2009Liverpool-1Arsenal48.03%29.56%22.41%2.083.384.46 Back Liverpool3.42.25 sky bet 6 6 1:2 lost -6.0012/13/2009Middlesbrough1Cardiff44.91%30.14%24.95%2.233.324.01 Back Draw3.43.40 ladbrokes 1 1 0:1 lost -1.00Bets counter41Strike rate0.46Staked285.61Profit51.26Yield17.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 14, 2009 Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Seems to be going well so far, my only concern would be that the ratings could be a bit mis-leading if they take into account only the last 6 games. For example a team could have played all the top teams within thoose 6 games, yet next game they could be against a team near the bottom and they may no be favourable when in truth they are a much better team they've just gone through a hard run of fixtures. It is interesting though this system, runs on the idea of form which can never be under-estimated in football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Seems to be going well so far, my only concern would be that the ratings could be a bit mis-leading if they take into account only the last 6 games. For example a team could have played all the top teams within thoose 6 games, yet next game they could be against a team near the bottom and they may no be favourable when in truth they are a much better team they've just gone through a hard run of fixtures. It is interesting though this system, runs on the idea of form which can never be under-estimated in football. thanks for your interest :ok I agree there are some concerns, but those you mentioned are extreme situations, and you always have to use common sense ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 18, 2009 Author Share Posted December 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 25, 2009 Author Share Posted December 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 25, 2009 Author Share Posted December 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 28, 2009 Author Share Posted December 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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