Wincanton - Sat 7th Nov

[fintron]

3.25 Wincanton - Badger Ales Trophy This looks a really competitive chase as you would expect and last years winner Cornish Sett is turned out by Paul Nicholls. He is a strong stayer but is 7 lb higher than when winning last year and I think others are open to more improvement. Nicholls' other runner, The Tother One heads the betting and although he won on his chase debut in a novices event he failed to complete last time out at Newbury and for now I think he is best watched even if the trainer will have likely improved his jumping. Of more interest I feel I Carruthers, who won a Grade 2 chase at Ascot last term and ran credibly in the RSA in March when fourth, stepped up in Grade to mix it up with the best of them. He ran a cracker from the front before a jumping error close home saw him surrender several places at the finish and although I think he is probably up to defying a mark of 149 in handicap company, the prospect of an easy lead is far from certain. Irish National winner Niche Market has been put up 9 lbs from that win but hasn't been seen since, whilst Nenuphar Colllonges is another classy sort that has fitness to prove so is opposed for that reason. The Package is yet to win over fences but placed in a Newbury Grade 3 last season and is open to more improvement, but I think others look better bets tomorrow. Bowleaze ran well when second at this track last time out and runs off the same mark again. However, this looks a tougher race to tackle and it is the less exposed trio of Valley Ride, Kilcrea Asla and Beat The Boys That Appeal more. Valley Ride won wearing first time cheekpieces at Market Rasen last time out on his debut for Peter Bowen and if they have the same effect here it would be no surprise to see him defy a 9 lb rise. Kilcrea Asla failed to live up to expectations in the Midlands National and returned to action over hurdles when last seen. His jumping will need to have improved though to figure here and I think Beat The Boys is a more likely winner. He too has been hindered by jumping errors in the past and he failed to complete either the Welsh National, Midlands National or Blue Square Gold Cup last season. However, he must have worked well at home as he was an impressive winner at Chepstow last time out, slamming the field by fourteen lengths and staying on well to score under Paddy Brennan. With the yard in good form he may well be able to defy a 13 lb rise in the handicap as he was placed at Cheltenham off this mark previously during the Open Meeting, when outstayed by Joe Lively and Halcon Genelardais but tiring close home. He seems to have improved since then and could register a new career best. Beat The Boys 11/1 Paddypower, 0.55 pt win/0.3 pt place Kilcrea Asla 20/1 Paddy, 0.5 pt saver Valley Ride 11/1 Bet 365, 0.1 pt win

[Tipster5000]

Re: Wincanton - Sat 7th Nov Spotted a few useful pointers at this track today and here they are; Wincanton 3.25 Below will be points i will give for how well they should do 10 being good, 5 being a possible and 0 being likely to struggle. :eek 10 ---- :hope5 ---- :spank 0 Nenuphar Collognes November form 10 :eek) 1/1 November 2008 @ Bangor over Chase fences Ground 10 :eek) Won on Soft at the above meeting and likely more rain to come Weight 10 :eek) Won the above meeting carrying 11-12 so a drop of 4lbs but going up to a class 1. Cornish Set November form 10 :eek) 2/2 Nov 2006 & 2008 @ Cheltenham & Wincanton over Chase fences. Ground 10 :eek) Won on Soft & Good to soft at the above meetings so should be ideal on this ground. Weight 10 :eek) Won off 11-7 at Cheltenham so his 2lbs drop will be no issue. Bowleaze November form 5 :hope) Form reads 3-f-1 in November but did win last year @ Sandown Ground 10 :eek) Won that above race on soft. Weight 10 :eek) Also won the above race carrying 11-2 in a Class 3 race so weight should not be a problem as he is coming down by 9lbs.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Wincanton - Sat 7th Nov 3.25 Wincanton - Bowleaze e/w Backed him last time and this is a tougher race, but at the price on offer I had to have a bet. I think he can be in the shake up again and the yard is having winners and placed horses all over the tracks. Reading the thoughts of the trainers for the other runers, most of them run this as a prep race for Hennessy or whatsoever, so I think Bowleaze will run his usual race and could be in the mix again.

[Ricochet]

Re: Wincanton - Sat 7th Nov 3.25 Wincanton I really fancied Beat the Boys chances in this one but I feel that 13lb higher mark since last run will be too big an ask & the stronger race will prove very difficult. I'm going to side with Valley Ride who I feel can still go well even though up 9lbs. Has previously won over further than this and should be in the mix again today. 0.5pts Valley Ride E/W @ 12/1 (StanJames, SkyBet & SportingBet)

[Rainbow]

Re: Wincanton - Sat 7th Nov wade farm billy 1240 winc. 0.5 pts ew. more exposed than most, so taking a chance of others not improving more than expected. the trip and ground isnt a problem and i think a few of the more fancied unexposed runners will find it tough. the price is there to take the chance.