Kempton 3rd Nov (AW)

[chris34]

2.20 Kempton Femme de fer ran much improved race on handicap debut and first try at 5f and looks potentially well handicapped and from another good draw today. La capriosa has proved she isn’t just an aw runner with a few wins and good efforts on turf, but wide draw today and is probably well held by handicapper at the moment although first time cheek pieces may help. Irish music ran an interesting race finishing 4th on turf handicap finishing well but not enough and could be capable in this having shown some promise in sprint maidens on the aw. Asaint needs brass is one to watch in the betting having shown very little lately but was highly thought of as a 2yr old winning a maiden round here and a class 4 novice stakes and did contest Windsor castle stakes and newbury sprint but shown such little since. 1pt win femme de fer 0.25pt e/w irish music 2.50 Kempton Lithaam will need a career best to take this under a penalty. Malapropism is clearly in good heart over 6f on aw but will probably find 5f a little to sharp now. If come one buckers can run a similar race like he did in claimer last time out is potentially in with a chance. Bookiesindex boy has run 2 good races in defeat lately finishing 2nd over this trip at wolverhampton and is well handicapped on prevous form winning off a mark of 73 now rated just 65 and Hughes eye catching booking. Silver prelude won over CD when a warm favourite in September winning off a mark of 62 and is now rated 67 but ran well in defeat and only just missing out on second place and is another well handicapped winning off a mark as high as 71. Both selections have wide draws which means min stakes for me. 0.25pt win silver prelude (0.125pt e/w if over 6/1) 0.25pt win bookiesindex boy 3.20 Kempton Ask the oracle is one to watch in market but personally looks to be entering handicapping on a slightly harsh mark. Thunderstruck has only ever won a maiden but has been recently running well in defeat with a 2nd over wolverhampton over furlong short stamina doesn’t look a problem and is slipping rapidly down the weights and has run some good races off higher marks than this. 0.5pt win thunderstruck 3.50 Kempton Bab Al Salam was un beaten until running in a 3 runner handicap at newmarket and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back to take this he has shown a clear liking for the aw surface and Durcan appears to get on well will the horse and has beaten the useful rosika aswell prior to getting beat last time. Mafeking will find this tougher than his latest CD second but he might well get an easy time up front and may have a chance on that and is still potentially well handicapped on previous form and is clearly coming into form. 1pt win bab al salam 0.5pt win Mafeking 4.20 Kempton Cracking sprint for a Tuesday but Hajoum is clearly well handicapped having finished 2nd last time out over CD and looks a reasonable handicapper and is clearly gonna only go one way at the moment and that’s improve and looks a big price at 3s from a great draw in stall 12. We have a dream is a massive danger if getting his way upfront having had a great season when able to to make all and callan on board but maybe a little high in handicap now and also bad draw. Toms laughter ran a good race back in 3rd behind green manalishi on Sunday and is well handicapped on some of his form last summer and any return to that sort of form could be a massive threat with probert on board riding for his life! 1pt win hajoum 3/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w toms laughter 9/1 bet365

[RussP]

Re: Kempton 3rd Nov (AW) 2.20 Kempton Class 5 handicap over 5f on the inner bend with 11 going to post. A race where I'm keen to oppose the fav hailing from the yard of Clive Cox. Femme De Fer does admittedly have a nice draw in 10 but the concern for me is the 2lb rise in the weights for finishing 2nd lto on its handicap debut. I also think that 6f is its trip and an extra furlong would make it more of a betting proposition. With 2 major worries for me, I'm happy to oppose. Looking at the other contenders, I think Punching could go well but being winless over 5f is enough to put me off, whilst Ask Jenny will go close with a clear run but its ability to find trouble in running makes me want to oppose. Albeit a short price but I can't get away from the excellent chance held by: Irish Music - Lightly raced 4yo and still a maiden but very well handicapped and must surely go close here today. Has an excellent draw in 11 and its racing style will be suited here, sitting just off the leader. Was off the track for a year before reappearing in the summer off 67 over 6f, finishing a promising 5th of 10. Was then off the track for another 4 months before running at Yarmouth over the minimum trip, off a tempting mark of just 60, eased 7lb. Looked the winner a furlong out before a combination of lack of fitness and a rival hanging badly left scuppered its chance. Races off the same mark today but also has the plus of a very promising 5lb claimer on top, making it look 5lb well in here. Stable in great form too and, provided it doesn't prove to be one of those frustrating maidens, I really fancy this one to take this at the expense of a fast finishing Ask Jenny and Punching. Odds may be a little skinny but anything around the 11/2 mark should be taken. 3.20 Kempton 14 for this low grade, Class 6 handicap over 1m2f. The 2 favs here are both opposable with Ask The Oracle making its handicap debut, something I always look to take on, whilst Thunderstruck is drawn wide and is raised in mark despite a defeat, another factor I look for. Of the other market principles, Hannicean is a negative having run in a 2m hurdle race just 24 hours ago, Inside Story has claims but I'm concerned over recent form, whilst Blue Turk is another to give its running but may be a few pounds too high. The horse I'm strongly drawn to is: Megalala - This one has major claims here over a C&D it clearly adores. Is one of the trainers 2 in the race but this holds the best chance and has a nice draw in 8. Big drop in mark from 64 back to 60, it now races off its last winning mark and, coupled with the ease in grade, should go really well. Loves the track but particularly loves the C&D with 3 wins from 4 starts, certainly more successful than when racing at other distances here. I firmly believe that's because of its front running tendencies and the 1m2f races here take place round the inner bend, meaning a much shorter straight and less chance for those in behind to get past. Another plus is that it should get an uncontested lead here so can dictate the tempo and kick hard off the final turn. In 10 starts at other distances here, has managed just 1 2nd & 1 3rd, whilst at this C&D, has finished 2nd at 33/1 and won its other 3 at 12/1, 7/1 and 9/2, all under this jockey. If the races pans out as I expect, this horse will prove very difficult to pass and could result in a nice double figure priced winner. Take anything around 10's when the race is priced up. 4.20 Kempton A really nice race, a Class 3 6f handicap with 12 runners. Quite an open looking heat with the exception of the Godolphin fav that I opposed just over a week ago, Hajoum, and I'm prepared to pass over it again, especially with the move to a stronger race off a 4lb higher mark. Several in with chances but the one for my money is: Toms Laughter (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Strictly on a form line through Fantasy Explorer, this one has the beating of the fav, being 4lb better off for just under half a length. However, there is much more to this ones chances than that. Has been off the boil this term until its good run 2 days ago but I can find reasons for the poor showings. Firstly, its mark in the 90's was too high and it only showed improved form when returned to its last winning mark of 89 lto. The other positive is the return to 6f; 5 wins and 2 2nds from 11 starts is an impressive return compared with 2 wins and 1 2nd from 22 starts over other distances. Despite this stat, this is its first race over its ideal trip this term after 5 starts. Draw in 4 is not ideal but the longer straight will give it plenty of time to wear down the leaders, and Kempton is a track the horse likes; has a 2 from 2 record here. It's quick return to the track is also in its favour; has reappeared 4 times in its career within 5 days with a record of 2nd at 16/1, 1st at 8/1, 3rd at 7/1 and 4th (of 20) at 6/1. Too big a price to ignore and will go well at a rewarding price.