dico Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 I would say on the whole I can win money at .50/1 and 1/2. However, no matter how much i win i always keep playing until i lose the lot. How can I make myself stop when up a certain amount:unsure For example this week I turned £150 into about £520 and then lost it all by playing just one more hand, then just one more etc Do i need to set limits? Do i need to do a challenge to motivate myself to stop:unsure Anybody else suffer from this? I guess it's just greed:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit I tend to put a time limit on how long I'm playing for and get out once its over. If I end up with an ammount at a very active table that I am uncomfortable with losing I move to another table. Say I buy in for $100 and get up to $300 but other players have similer stacks I move as I dont like the Idea of losing £200 on the turn of a card. Overall I have a bankroll of "x" and when ever I reach "y" I withdraw back to "x". If I get a decent win that shoots me to "z" I carry on playing back down to "x" or untill I have won enough to pay for christmas or something else that is desirable. The "x" bankroll is a million miles away from "A" so I should be O.K:ok Hope that makes sense:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit I would say on the whole I can win money at .50/1 and 1/2. How sure are you of that? I know nothing of your game - so just chucking the idea out there - it may apply to you it may not.... If you always lose your winnings, then could it not be that the way you are playing is not quite as successful as you believe? If your style lets you win lots of small pots, and lose occasional big pots, it may be that you win 80% of your hands, but are still a losing player. But because you often win lots of small pots, you may have the impression you're playing winning poker when you're not. Just to be clear, I'm not directing this at you personally, because I know zilch about your game - but poker has an ability to persuade the worst of players that they're winning players. Very few poker players underestimate their ability. Very few poker players think that they're losing players (even though most are!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadlydaveLDN Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit How sure are you of that? I know nothing of your game - so just chucking the idea out there - it may apply to you it may not.... If you always lose your winnings, then could it not be that the way you are playing is not quite as successful as you believe? If your style lets you win lots of small pots, and lose occasional big pots, it may be that you win 80% of your hands, but are still a losing player. But because you often win lots of small pots, you may have the impression you're playing winning poker when you're not. Just to be clear, I'm not directing this at you personally, because I know zilch about your game - but poker has an ability to persuade the worst of players that they're winning players. Very few poker players underestimate their ability. Very few poker players think that they're losing players (even though most are!) I made (and when I say made, I mean copied from a CardRunners video) a spreadsheet that takes your winrate/number of hands played/standard deviation, and works out the % chance that you are a winning player. It should also tell you when you input your bankroll, your risk of ruin, but I've done something wrong with the formula there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadlydaveLDN Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit I've just run the figures through for the 5k hands that GaF played in stage 1 of his coaching, and there is a 71% chance he is a winning player at $10NL. Obviously based on how he's played since it is going to be way higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit Out of curiosity - what did it say after the first 2000 hands? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadlydaveLDN Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit Out of curiosity - what did it say after the first 2000 hands? 99.99%, you were winning 34.65BBs/100. But it's pretty meaningless with such a small sample size. The math behind it isn't perfect either, but it's a decent guide if sample size is big enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit Surely the standard deviation takes account of the sample size? :unsure (though obviously it doesnt...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit The last 3months i've set a 4 buy-in stop loss so as soon as i hit 400 max i quit (apart from 1 day i forgot about the stop loss and dropped 650 :lol). Other than that i can spot the signs of me drifting off concentration wise very early on now through experience really. If i start to lay back in my chair, browse the web, pay more attention to the TV then i know it's time to quit as i start to go into weak passive mode which is seeing lots of flops but giving up post flop when i miss. To combat playing 'just one more hand' just realise that banking a win is gold and the game will still be there tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit Surely the standard deviation takes account of the sample size? :unsure (though obviously it doesnt...) But any formula will have to estimate the standard deviation from your results, and the smaller the sample size, the less accurately it will do so. For example, if you have an unusually small number of "big" hands in your sample, the standard distribution of the sample will be a lot smaller than the "real" standard deviation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGremlin Posted October 30, 2009 Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: knowing when to quit I would say on the whole I can win money at .50/1 and 1/2. However, no matter how much i win i always keep playing until i lose the lot. How can I make myself stop when up a certain amount:unsure For example this week I turned £150 into about £520 and then lost it all by playing just one more hand, then just one more etc Do i need to set limits? Do i need to do a challenge to motivate myself to stop:unsure Anybody else suffer from this? I guess it's just greed:$ I know I mostly play tournaments and in cash you can have a stack pot ratio in cash that doesn´t really exist in tournament or SnG. I found out I had a bad leak in my game when I was to bigstack, dunno, maybe you have the same problem? Are you a winning player when you´re lowstack or normal stack, but when you´re bigstack you turn into a losing player? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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