Making Money on Betfair

[bravo470]

Guys after yet another losing saturday footie accumulator when the obligatory sure thing went and lost it got me thinking of a new stratergy for the laying of favourites on bet fair. Now it would appear to me that the bookmakers have essentially built their empires on the back of losing favourites. With this in mind it looks llike statisticaly only one in three favourites actually win. My system is that I aim to start with a large bank in relation to the stakes I aim to place. In my case I will start with a bank of £250 and lay each favourite to win 0.26p (0.25p profit and 1p commision). Yes this is such a small amount but this can hopefully be played up time and time again. Should the favourite lose the next bet is your losing amount plus your required 0.25 profit should this bet lose you would repeat your loses adding on your expected profit.Continue until you lay a loser and then revert to your original stake. With a bank as large as £250 in relation to your stakes this would require a series (obviously depending on your odds) of several or more winning favourites. In my whole 20 years betting I have never personaly expirianced such a run but I have seen long long losing runs and often. The favourites can be in any sport and other than blindly backing the favourite no knowledge of these sports is required. The profit in this system may not be to everybodies liking but my thoughts are that the gamblers biggest enemy is that of greed. My sole intention would be to make more than I could with the same amount in the bank so my expectations are not massive(although its always healthy to dream lol) I can see this system failing if you set your stakes too high in relation to your bank. I would hope to double the bank within a year and on doing so up the stake relative to the bank. Further tweaks of the system could be implemented I for one do not like to lay any favourite over 4.0 My current expectaions would be to make £1 a day therefore requring four losing favourites. Any thoughts guys.

[Sixaside]

Re: Making Money on Betfair

Should the favourite lose the next bet is your losing amount plus your required 0.25 profit should this bet lose you would repeat your loses adding on your expected profit.Continue until you lay a loser and then revert to your original stake.

Very interesting. I think the key is targeting specific events. the 1 in 3 favs stat refers to favs of all prices. Not sure of the exact ratio but when it comes to odds-on favs in the nags, more than 1 in 3 will win so the price is a determining factor. Of course the liability would be lower laying hotpots so you would be able to sustain a longer losing run. Also you would need to take commission into account. Say you lost €1 in your first bet you need to make €1.25 after 5% commission. so you would need to use a stake of €1.31 in your 2nd bet. I must work out how many 2/1 winning favs it would take to blow the bank. That's the key. A little bit like doubling up in roulette - it's all about how many successive losses your bank can sustain.

[Sixaside]

Re: Making Money on Betfair Ok. I've worked out how many consecutive winning 2/1 favs you could sustain using the model you suggest. Not sure whether the answer is encouraging or not! If you had 8 consecutive losses at 2/1, you would need to win on your 9th bet, otherwise the bank is blown! what's the odds on that?:unsure

[bravo470]

Re: Making Money on Betfair Six aside thanks for the update.I would think this scenareo encouraging as thinking back over my long gambling career I cant recall such a run.I do however see that it is possible and with this in mind I would argue that should you not be greedy then taking small hits often and having the largest bank possible in relation to the profits required would give you a good chance of succsess.My aim would be only to double up in the year if this was achievable then I would think we are onto a winner.:hope

[Sixaside]

Re: Making Money on Betfair Here's a few questions for the statisticians: Does anyone know what the longest sequence of winning favs is for the following? UK racing single meeting Irish racing single meeting UK racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races? Irish racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races? Irish and UK racing by start time across all meetings on a particular date and following on to the next day's races?

[Kanga]

Re: Making Money on Betfair For UK racing the longest winning streak for favourites is 10. This happened at the Catterick meeting in October 2001 when 8 winning favs won on the trot. The last race fav won at Windsor the day before, and the first race fav won at Wolverhampton (evening racing) the same day as Catterick making 10 winning favs on the trot.

[The.Profit]

Re: Making Money on Betfair The 10 in a row mentioned above sounds like an unlikely occurence, What are the odds of this happening again ? And even if it did you could well have made your money back. The insurance industry thrives on calculated risk after all.

[methuselah]

Re: Making Money on Betfair I bet on Soccer only now. But I do have a bot that I was running on australian racing about 18 months ago. I was trying it in simulation mode only to observe the sequence of Favourite winners and was surprised to see over a 5 week period that twice there was a run of 16 Favourite sequential losers, The races were from all tracks including the Trots. This put me off betting on the Nags.

[betting101]

Re: Making Money on Betfair This is a very dangerous game....there are much easier ways to make money with betfair.....you just need to dig in deeper. Good Luck ;)