Tulenos Posted May 27, 2004 Share Posted May 27, 2004 Now, this bet is a HEDGE and applies ONLY if you are on Calgary to win the whole thing. You should be on them for 1/2 a point @ 41.84/1. Now the time is right to hedge as I have found a decent price and the series can still go either way. We are into the final series and the Flames won Game 1 last night. Before Game 1, the price on TB to win was too low (1/2 @ best). As you might remember, I pointed out goalies are the key. We have two teams with two top goalies and Tampa's Khabibulin is the one I fear (as I have Kiprusoff on our side). The Lightnings have had a gorgeous season and are more consistent. Calgary have upset all favs on the way to the final and seem to have the momentum. Anyway, the series can really go either way and the time has come when books can't split the teams and it may be unwise to sit on the fence. Again, there is Khabibulin AND the fact Tampa OUTSHOT Calgary in Game 1. Should they win Game 2 (on Thursday) we are at the beginning once again, incl. the price. So, I've decided to secrifice a 1/4 of our potential return and lump it on Tampa to win the whole thing. This way, you win either 4.05 pts (if Tampa win the series) or 15.92 (if Calgary win the series). In fact, this means an absolutely free bet and you can sit back and relax and enjoy the final. If Calgary wins even Game 2, I will consider sacrificing some two more points @ a very nice price. BET TAMPA TO WIN THE FINAL SERIES @ 1.91 *Pinnacle* 5 PTS The price is much lower elsewhere (1.73 to 1.83 most books and 1.96 @ Betfair which is app. the same as the quoted price. Season Recap 142-178-26, +9.45 pts, yield +2.38 per cent (with the final bet(s) to go - sure return) That's it, enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted June 4, 2004 Author Share Posted June 4, 2004 UPDATE After Game 5, the Flames are leading 3-2 and are in with a VERY loud shout. I firmly believe now they will lift the Cup and don't think any further hedge is necessary. We will collect in both cases anyway, but much more if the Flames can do the trick and edge the Lightnings.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted June 4, 2004 Share Posted June 4, 2004 Re: UPDATE Was thinking about hedging again myself Tulenos but you've called it correctly so far so will sit tight. Hoping they can do it now as the 50/1 price I got when you first picked them will be the highest odds winner I've ever had (ignoring the partial hedging). Great tipping ! :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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