Grex Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Apologize for a silly question. You mean betting on Arsenal (-1.75), Chelsea (-0.25) Villa (0) ? Because first I thought you meant betting against the handicap offered by the bookies , i.e. Blackburn (+1.75), Liverpool (+0.25) and City (0). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Not a silly question at all..... I probably didn't explain myself very well. In fact, I'm betting against Blackburn, Liverpool, Man City and Sampdoria.... all of whom are on a winning streak of one. Hope that makes sense :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Interesting project. But how many plays does this "system" generate per season ? and how many plays is the total sample in the Premierleague and Serie A ? Just wondering how big this sample is you have researched. As I recall this did not work over the long haul with the NFL, and I'm sure the asian bookies does not calculate their spreads over who is on a losing or winning streak either. But in theory it could be like that - but I think it could rather be the punters who is betting the teams on a winning streak, giving value on the underdog.. How do you count pushes ? Arsenal pushed the spread last round, so they are not on neither a winning or losing streak ? What about spreads that changes, like opens +0.25, but ends with 0:0(DNB), will you count that as a push or a win if it ends in a draw result ? I think you forgot one play in the premiership. Stoke is on a losing streak against Everton who is on a winning streak ? Good luck - will be interesting to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Thanks for your input, Dominator….. you’ve obviously been doing your homework! To answer your questions: a)I researched 5 seasons of data for both the Premiership and Serie A. The “system†selects about 25% of matches, that is 2 or 3 per round per league. b)I am sure the bookies fix the AH to balance their risk on either outcome. c)The system at the moment considers a “push†as a loss. This is because basically I am lazy and like to automate analyses using Excel…. and when I was trying to differentiate between total wins, half-wins, pushes, half-losses and total losses, the formulae had so many nested IF statements it blew-up. However, I have now overcome this problem by using HLOOKUP functions, so I can now factor in all possible outcomes. I will adjust the system for future selections. d)According to my records Everton were on a winning streak of 2, so their game wouldn’t figure (only teams on a winning streak of 1 are opposed). Having said that selecting Stoke would have produced a win! Anyway I hope the above explains a few things. Results today went well today, with 3 out of 3 wins. I will post the weekend’s results after tomorrow night’s game between Villa and ManCity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Thanks for the explanations Grex. Couldn't ask for a better start on a system I guess :) I missed that a team had to be on an exact one winning streak to qualify. I take that this is because that teams on more than 1 game winning streak does not produce semilar strong results ? If that is the case, its kindda odd I think, since the longer winning streak ATS a team is, the more tempted the bookies should be to give a bit extra on the spread for the hot team, since they know the puclic loves to bet the hot favorites.. Atleast you should think it could be like that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Not a silly question at all..... I probably didn't explain myself very well. In fact, I'm betting against Blackburn, Liverpool, Man City and Sampdoria.... all of whom are on a winning streak of one. Hope that makes sense :D Hello Wise Man, where did get old (past) asian hadicap result? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathsplitter Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) I know it's not one of your selected leagues but in the Norwegian D1 (Adeccoligaen) tonight, Honefoss v Tromsdalen, Honefoss are on a winning streak of 1, Tromsdalen on a losing streak of 2. Tromsdalen +1.5 @ 2.1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Hello Wise Man, where did get old (past) asian hadicap result? Thanks for dropping in, lawalahmed..... I use football-data.co.uk. Its free, and has lots of information. But please note that for the current season, most of the AHs are quoted for a handicap of (0). I contacted the owner of the site and the reason for quoting AH(0) is apparently that most online bookies use this handicap, rather than a balanced handicap, because it is more popular. I am working on an Excel sheet to convert 1X2 odds to balanced AH Odds, and will share it with everybody when it is finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) I know it's not one of your selected leagues but in the Norwegian D1 (Adeccoligaen) tonight' date=' Honefoss v Tromsdalen, Honefoss are on a winning streak of 1, Tromsdalen on a losing streak of 2. Tromsdalen +1.5 @ 2.1.[/quote'] :welcome to Punters Lounge, Deathsplitter (nice name!). Thanks for the tip.... to be honest, I tend to steer away from Scandinavian leagues.... they are rather unpredictable, except for "overs" ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominator Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) I contacted the owner of the site and the reason for quoting AH(0) is apparently that most online bookies use this handicap' date= rather than a balanced handicap, because it is more popular. What BS. Using just 0:0 makes the AH stats almost useless, since the whole idea behind asian hcap is to use a balanced spread. So if he does not collect the true asian handicap for the games, he might as well not collect them at all. If he just collected them from Pinnaclesports, instead of the wanna-be asian bookies like Ladbrokes & Gamebookers, it wouldn't an issue. If he's been collecting the true asian hcap earlier seasons, its strange and a shame if he suddenly started to corrupt the AH data by using an un-even 0:0 spread for most games. But its ofcause his data and he can collect it any way he wants! :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Hold on a minute, Dominator….. I think you’re being rather unfair. Football-data is a very good site…:clap it’s a gold-mine of information, and I think most stats “freaks” on this forum use it as a basis for developing their systems. The site is FREE and the owner, Joseph Buchdahl :notworthy is highly-respected in betting circles. However, he has to automate his system and he uses Betbrain to download most of his statistics….. Betbrain quotes the most popular odds, and at the moment most punters apparently go for AH(0), which is the same as DNB. So let’s not slag off a free site which most people treat as a “bible”. :spank PS. I agree that Pinnaclesports offers the best option an AH.... that's why I quote their odds on my system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) I know it's not one of your selected leagues but in the Norwegian D1 (Adeccoligaen) tonight' date=' Honefoss v Tromsdalen, Honefoss are on a winning streak of 1, Tromsdalen on a losing streak of 2. Tromsdalen +1.5 @ 2.1.[/quote'] Bad luck with your tip, Deathsplitter..... Tromsdalen lost the Handicap in the 3rd minute of added time :(. Perhaps it was the same referee that gave 200 minutes of added time in the recent Manchester derby ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) This has probably been tried before…… it is inspired by a previous thread (which I can’t find now) which tried to develop a profitable system for American Football by betting “against the spread†(ATS). The system was based on the assumption that a team on a losing run ATS playing a team on a winning run ATS had a better chance of success. The logic is understandable…. the “spreads†are calculated by the bookies to give a realistically balanced advantage to one team, based on previous performance…. it follows that a team that has performed poorly “against the spread†will eventually beat the spread. It was some -Valiant's- thread. Interesting idea and I followed this 2 years but after succesfull start (NFL and NBA) later it was losing stuff. But I liked this idea and will follow you ! sorry for my english Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Thanks, Yomica..... yes, it was Valiant's thread, and I also followed his selections for a few months with small profits. As I said before, I am in the process of "adjusting" the system.... but as there's no matches for 10 days, I have plenty of time! By the way, your English is excellent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) As I said before' date=' I am in the process of "adjusting" the system.... but as there's no matches for 10 days, I have plenty of time![/quote'] Well, I have re-analysed the historical AH performance, this time taking into account half-wins and half-losses…. and the trends that I mentioned in the first post have more-or-less disappeared. HOWEVER……. other trends did manifest themselves. The analysis now includes English Premiership, Italy Serie A, Spanish Primera and German Bundesliga for 5 seasons since 2004…. a total of over 7,000 matches. An example of a particular trend is the performance where the home team has a handicap of -1.75. There are 163 such matches and., of these, the home team only managed to completely overcome its handicap 24% of the time, with a further 18% being half-wins. On the other hand, the Away team successfully defended its handicap 58% of the time. Other trends relating to the size of the AH and winning/losing streaks were also identified and have been included in the overall selection criteria. The overall performance during the past 5 seasons was around 13% yield, and what is particularly encouraging is that the yield was consistent over each of the 5 seasons and also between leagues (although, as usual, the Bundesliga was lagging behind the rest). I think that the system will throw up 5 to 6 selections per round….. I will post the first selections tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Very interesting Grex. I have a lot of respect for you system buffs who put in this much effort. Let's hope it pays off in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 18, 2009 Author Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Thanks for your support, Ultravires........ for "system buffs" read "people who have nothing better to do than play around with Excel data sheets all day" :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 19, 2009 Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) The bet on Man City (+0.75) was not a winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 19, 2009 Author Share Posted October 19, 2009 Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) The bet on Man City (+0.75) was not a winner? I wish it was...... but the AH(H) column refers to the home team handicap... in this case Wigan had an AH of +0.75, so the bet on Man City lost :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 26, 2009 Author Share Posted October 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.