US Open First Round

[dave]

All the prices I use here are betfair, there may be better around. Here's a few that stand out initially to me. Anyone have any thoughts on these or any other matches? T Berdych to beat J Bjorkman @ 1.78 Bjorkman will be concentrating on the doubles more than the singles I would think, and has been in pretty poor form. Berdych surprised many people at the Olympics, but he had been threatening all season to breakthrough, and should be the player who wants this most. N Davydenko to beat M Philippoussis @ 1.82 The Aussie has played just twice since Wimbledon, losing both, and you have to ask how fit is he really? Is he just playing because it's a slam? Davydenko has looked solid enough recently and could take out the Scud. A Costa to beat R Federer @ 12.0 Federer has played poorly by his standards since winning in Canada, and has lost his last 2 meetings with Costa, one of them on a hard court. Costa's won a few on the hard courts this year, and I feel that this is priced on reputation. Maybe a lay of Federer 3-0 could be a good bet, at around 1.45. R Sluiter to beat P Mathieu @ 1.77 As far as I can see Mathieu has done nothing to justify being close to 2.1, so Sluiter looks exceptional value. Someone tell me if I'm missing something. C Saulnier to beat G Rusedski @ 2.0 Saulnier destroyed Rusedski when they met earlier in the year, and has been playing pretty well recently. Rusedski has won matches recently, but not very convincingly, and will struggle if he can't make a good start.

[edtkh]

Re: US Open First Round Agree with you on Berdych there, dave. It's brilliant value given his form really. As for the rest, I really don't fancy too many of your picks. :b Davydenko is out of the question for me unless you know a thing or two about the Scud's fitness I'm not aware of. Similarly, I wouldn't touch Saulnier as this is pretty much a 50-50 match - Rusedski seems to have been rejuvenated of late and this would really be touch-and-go as I reckon Rusedski has had the psychological upperhand over Saulnier in their previous meeting(though that was on grass) when they played in the US a couple of months ago. Picking Costa hardly represents value IMO(not at 12.00 anyway) as he's hardly been half-decent on hardcourts this year(tired as Federer may be, I still see him having too much to see off Costa). Rather than laying Costa, I'd back Federer 3-1 as I can't see past a Federer 3-0 or Federer 3-1 scoreline here. Best of luck for the round nonetheless... :p