Grex Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Nice one Grex! :cheers Thanks, David :ok Total Clean Sheet' date= Three Treble Score Line and Finally, FULL HOUSE:drums ... and you bet on all of them ?? :loon.... congratulations ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Well done Grex...I got my 3 leg acca and my 4 leg acca... cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Congratulations, Mr Magoo..... perhaps I should also start putting hard cash on my own selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Congratulations' date= Mr Magoo..... perhaps I should also start putting hard cash on my own selections :ok Now that sounds like a plan mate... Is that Georgie Best on your Avatar...I am a devoted ManU fan and have been for years...great chance this year and good odds atm for a ManU Arsenal Exacta (Forecast) Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Yes, Mr Magoo... that is THE late, great George Best :notworthy. I am afraid I was breast-fed on Man United (Best, Law, Charlton era).... so, I didn't stand a chance. As for the Arsenal game, I wouldn't put too much faith in a United victory..... they are simply too unpredictable at the moment.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield I saw Stoke (1.61) vs Blackpool in bet365 is that the match for weekend ? :cow I don't choose Everton because the odd is just 1.40 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Hi, Winningbin..... yes it looks as though Stoke will be the only selection from the EP. Palermo will probably qualify from the IA.... Juventus are currently slightly above the upper limit at 1.85... shall we see how the odds look later in the week. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Blackburn / Man City double on Sat and the other 2 were single bets , didn't have the bollocks to go for the 4-timer . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Blackburn / Man City double on Sat and the other 2 were single bets ' date=' didn't have the bollocks to go for the 4-timer .[/quote'] Still quite a good return..... lang may yer lum reek (translation into English.... one day) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Palermo (1.65 in Bet365) vs Parma it's 1.741 in Pinnacle for Palermo to win, great odd :tongue2 :loonplaced bets on Stoke at 1.637 and Palermo at 1.741 in pinnacle :cheers waiting for Juventus later :gimme Hi' date= Winningbin..... yes it looks as though Stoke will be the only selection from the EP. Palermo will probably qualify from the IA.... Juventus are currently slightly above the upper limit at 1.85... shall we see how the odds look later in the week. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Grex, I read the first posts and realize that the stakes changed after each match, but now the stake is not changed after each match, may you explain here for me ? Too many pages to read.... :unsure :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield He found that a level stakes staking plan returned a higher yield than the variable stakes staking plan, that's about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield He found that a level stakes staking plan returned a higher yield than the variable stakes staking plan' date=' that's about it.[/quote'] Glad to see somebody is reading all the posts, Averick. You have answered Winningbin's question perfectly :clap A few weeks ago, I compared (on paper) the level stakes plan with the percent bank plan, and the two were producing more or less the same yield for the current season, so I decided to stick with the simpler level stakes plan :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Thanks a lot, Averick & Grex ;) He found that a level stakes staking plan returned a higher yield than the variable stakes staking plan' date=' that's about it.[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield I too am a long term reader of this thread, but am yet to place money on the selections. * However, after seeing its success continue into the 2010/2011 season ive decided to jump on board too.* For ease of use im simply going to place the selections on Betfair, I could shop around to get the best odds, but I feel this would be too labour intensive in return for the small increase in profit I would see. * So, im going to jump on board these starting this weekend.* Tbh im surprised that such a simply little system has remained profitable, even more impressive when you consider the topsy turvy season we’ve had so far.* Long may it continue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Tbh im surprised that such a simply little system has remained profitable' date=' even more impressive when you consider the topsy turvy season we’ve had so far.* Long may it continue![/quote'] Don't worry, Skinnyman.... you're not the only one who is surprised ;) Good luck this weekend.... obviously I can't offer any guarantees :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie4 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Hi Grex, On the first page the odds are 1.45-1.80 . I see from the results that you have had winners over 1.80 what is your cut off point now? Great thread cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Thanks, Eddie. The selections are based on Bet365 odds within the range 1.45 - 1.80.... because that is how the back-testing was done. However, I then compare Bet365 and Pinnacle odds and post the higher odds (usually Pinnacle).... that's why there have been 5 selections this season over 1.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie4 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Ok appreciate the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oddsfather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Hi Grex. My first post and I start straight with question. How do you pick the team you are going to place the bet on ? I kept in mind the "5 games" those teams must have played so a pick will be considered on them and to me that sounds as you are using Poisson Distribution ?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Hi, Oddsfather.... and :welcome to Punters Lounge. I don't think you read the first post on this thread, did you??:spank. I am afraid the system is totally simple... nothing to do with Poisson's Distribution (something to do with the logistics of delivering French fish from the ports to the wholesalers, isn't it?? - I'll explain that "joke" when I have time) :tongue2. The system simply selects home teams from the English Premier (EP) and Italian Serie A (IA) that have odds between 1.45 and 1.80 as published by Bet365. The reason the simple system waits until teams have played 6 games is that, during back-testing, the beginning of seasons produced poor returns. I hope this explains the very SIMPLE system :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield And here too, put some cash on these bets too! :loon They ask you so many questions Grex because they can't believe that such a simple system works so well! :clap Good luck this week! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield They ask you so many questions Grex because they can't believe that such a simple system works so well! They ask so many questions because they can't be bothered to read through 430 posts :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Stoke hit the woodwork 3 times and even Ian Holloway admitted that Blackpool were pretty fortunate to have won that one. Good result in Palermo though :ok , Serie A does appear to have a more profitable edge at the moment . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RicardoFuller Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Stoke hit the woodwork 4 times, but we were so bad! It was our most flat performance of the season :/ very disappointing, btw im a stoke city season ticket holder :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield Stoke hit the woodwork 4 times, but we were so bad! It was our most flat performance of the season :/ very disappointing, btw im a stoke city season ticket holder :D Stoke hit the woodwork 3 times and even Ian Holloway admitted that Blackpool were pretty fortunate to have won that one. Good result in Palermo though :ok , Serie A does appear to have a more profitable edge at the moment . Looks like Stoke were unlucky, even though they didn't play well. Parlermo's comfortable win limited the damage over the weekend :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 40 bets +25% yield this does not work in the long run Thanks for the constructive and well-explained comment, Jaysright. I would point out that the system has shown excellent yield for the past one-and-a-half seasons. Perhaps you could explain why it will not work in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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