ardman123 Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 49) Hacken v AIK - Lay Correct Score 0-1 - 9.6 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 50) Brann v Viking - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 8.6 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Another bad day starting to sound like a broken record as i managed to find a loser out of only 2 bets. There's quite a few matches tomorrow so should be a few bets but whether that is a good thing remains to be seen. Day 12 Results Bet 49) Hacken v AIK - Lay Correct Score 0-1 - 9.6 - Won +12.39 Bet 50) Brann v Viking - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 8.6 - Lost -99.18 Day 12 P/L: -£86.79 Day 12 Strike Rate: 50% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2775.03 Overall Strike Rate: 76% Level Stakes Profit: -21.45 pts 38 wins from 50 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Hmmmm... I don't want to sound like a general after the battle now, but I also didn't want to comment prior to bet, trying not to bring the bad luck; take this just as a suggestion - your bet was very risky; when laying correct score, people usually choose something that happens rarely - they lay 3-3, or any unquoted, or 0-0, hoping for a single goal; but I can't see any reason to lay 1-1, except when you have the intention to trade out (even that has no big support, as the odds on 1-1 remain pretty unchanged as long as there is no goals, and then shorten after first goal; rarely may they lengthen, for example, if favourite scores early into the game). You should consider that 1-1 is pretty frequent result - this season in Norway 1, it occurred 15 times, or 8%; both teams had last result 1-1 exactly 10 rounds ago, and their last two mutual meetings finished 1-1... Which, I think, was your main trigger to choose this bet - one would not expect two teams to have the same result in three consecutive games, but it's probability, not reasoning... For comparison, 3-3 occurred only 2 times this season. I said that, IMO, this bet was risky; according the odds, it was not - odds of 8.6 give you probability of only around 12 % to lose your bet... but in comparison to odds for other correct scores, I believe they were at least the second shortest, if not the shortest, so that means very, very risky, given your profit in comparison with liability... Now, hope you'll recover soon from this downfall, as you're on Maria's pathway, you were prepared for ups and downs... Good luck in bets to follow! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 51) West Brom v Doncaster - Lay Doncaster - 7.2 - Backers stake £19.58 Bet52) Leicester v Peterborough - Lay Peterborough - 5.4 - Backers stake £19.58 Bet 53) Wolfsburg v CSKA - Lay 1-0 Correct Score - 9.8 - Backers stake £13.05 Bet 54) Maccabi Haifa v B Munich - Lay Under 3.5 Goals - 1.56 - Backers stake £32.64 I may have some in play bets later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Hmmmm... I don't want to sound like a general after the battle now, but I also didn't want to comment prior to bet, trying not to bring the bad luck; take this just as a suggestion - your bet was very risky; when laying correct score, people usually choose something that happens rarely - they lay 3-3, or any unquoted, or 0-0, hoping for a single goal; but I can't see any reason to lay 1-1, except when you have the intention to trade out (even that has no big support, as the odds on 1-1 remain pretty unchanged as long as there is no goals, and then shorten after first goal; rarely may they lengthen, for example, if favourite scores early into the game). You should consider that 1-1 is pretty frequent result - this season in Norway 1, it occurred 15 times, or 8%; both teams had last result 1-1 exactly 10 rounds ago, and their last two mutual meetings finished 1-1... Which, I think, was your main trigger to choose this bet - one would not expect two teams to have the same result in three consecutive games, but it's probability, not reasoning... For comparison, 3-3 occurred only 2 times this season. I said that, IMO, this bet was risky; according the odds, it was not - odds of 8.6 give you probability of only around 12 % to lose your bet... but in comparison to odds for other correct scores, I believe they were at least the second shortest, if not the shortest, so that means very, very risky, given your profit in comparison with liability... Now, hope you'll recover soon from this downfall, as you're on Maria's pathway, you were prepared for ups and downs... Good luck in bets to follow! :ok No offence taken Froment i will take any advice on board and it was a poor bet no doubt about it. I will probably only lay the 1-1 in matches where there is a heavy favourite and not in games where there are 2 evenly matched teams unless i feel the 1-1 is severely underpriced which clearly wasn't the case yesterday. I am hoping that by the time i have reached 100 bets the thread will be back in profit and i can analyse my selections to find where i am making or losing money and adjust my selections accordingly as there's always room for improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria A winning day today which could have been better if Bayern didn't decide to only start playing in the 2nd half. I was a bit worried when West Brom and Leicester both went 1-0 down but it all worked out in the end. Day 13 Results Bet 51) West Brom v Doncaster - Lay Doncaster - 7.2 - Won +18.60 Bet52) Leicester v Peterborough - Lay Peterborough - 5.4 - Won +18.60 Bet 53) Wolfsburg v CSKA - Lay 1-0 Correct Score - 9.8 - Won +12.39 Bet 54) Maccabi Haifa v B Munich - Lay Under 3.5 Goals - 1.56 - Lost -18.27 Day 13 P/L: +£31.32 Day 13 Strike Rate: 75% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2806.35 Overall Strike Rate: 75.9% Level Stakes Profit: -19.16 pts 41 wins from 54 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 16, 2009 Author Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 55) Lyon v Fiorentina - Back Over 9.5 Corners - 1.8 - Ladbrokes - Risking £40.80 to win £32.64. Bet 56) Liverpool v Debrecen - Lay No Liverpool Cleansheet - 2.94 - Backers stake £32.64 Bet 57) Stuttgart v Rangers - Lay Correct Score Any Unquoted - 9.4 - Backers stake £13.05 There may be some inplay bets to follow later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 16, 2009 Author Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 58) Standard v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal InPlay - 4.3 - Backers stake £19.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 17, 2009 Author Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria A profit on the day but once again just that one selection that lets me down. I thought the price for Arsenal was stupid 4.3 when 2-0 down and would take them odds any day of the week. What made it even worse is that they equalised with a goal that should of been disallowed and the winner was scored by a cheat who up until the day before was banned for the match. Day 14 Results Bet 55) Lyon v Fiorentina - Back Over 9.5 Corners - 1.8 - Ladbrokes - Won +32.64. Bet 56) Liverpool v Debrecen - Lay No Liverpool Cleansheet - 2.94 - Won +31 Bet 57) Stuttgart v Rangers - Lay Correct Score Any Unquoted - 9.4 - Won +12.39 Bet 58) Standard v Arsenal - Lay Arsenal InPlay - 4.3 - Lost -64.61 Day 14 P/L: +£11.42 Day 14 Strike Rate: 75% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2817.77 Overall Strike Rate: 75.8% Level Stakes Profit: -19.61 pts 44 wins from 58 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 17, 2009 Author Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 59) CSKA Sofia v Fulham - Lay Fulham - 3.65 - Backers stake £19.58 Bet 60) Ajax v FC Timisoara - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 13.5 - Backers stake £13.05 Bet 61) Genoa v Slavia Prague - Lay Slavia Prague - 11 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Alzheimers Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria A profit on the day but once again just that one selection that lets me down. I thought the price for Arsenal was stupid 4.3 when 2-0 down and would take them odds any day of the week. What made it even worse is that they equalised with a goal that should of been disallowed and the winner was scored by a cheat who up until the day before was banned for the match. :lol, same here my friend ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria A good day yesterday with all bets winning without any real trouble. It will be interesting to see how the bookies price up the next match Fulham play in the Europa League as i have a funny feeling they may take it a bit more seriously in their home games so there could be some value to be had if they assume that Fulham are only going to play their reserves in every match. Day 15 Results Bet 59) CSKA Sofia v Fulham - Lay Fulham - 3.65 - Won +18.60 Bet 60) Ajax v FC Timisoara - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 13.5 - Won +12.39 Bet 61) Genoa v Slavia Prague - Lay Slavia Prague - 11 - Won +12.39 Day 15 P/L: +£43.38 Day 15 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2861.15 Overall Strike Rate: 77% Level Stakes Profit: -16.76 pts 47 wins from 61 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 62) Schalke v Wolfsburg - Lay 0-0 Correct Score - InPlay - 11 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Got some early bets for tomorrows football. Bet 63) Niigata v Oita - Lay Draw - 3.7 - Backers stake £19.58 Bet 64) Arsenal v Wigan - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 13.5 - Backers stake £13.05 Bet 65) West Ham v Liverpool - Lay Over 4.5 Goals - 7 - Backers stake £19.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Just the one bet today as wasn't much that took my fancy and didn't want to have a bet for the sake of it. Day 16 Results Bet 62) Schalke v Wolfsburg - Lay 0-0 Correct Score - InPlay - 11 - Won +12.39 Day 16 P/L: +£12.39 Day 16 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2873.54 Overall Strike Rate: 77.4% Level Stakes Profit: -15.81 pts 48 wins from 62 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Another poor day on Saturday. I couldn't believe the West Ham match i didn't see how there were going to be 5 goals in that game. There were no bets yesterday as i was out all day. Day 17 Results Bet 63) Niigata v Oita - Lay Draw - 3.7 - Lost -52.86 Bet 64) Arsenal v Wigan - Lay Correct Score 1-1 - 13.5 - Won +12.39 Bet 65) West Ham v Liverpool - Lay Over 4.5 Goals - 7 - Lost -117.48 Bet 66) Newcastle v Plymouth - Lay Plymouth - 11 - Won +12.39 Day 17 P/L: -£145.56 Day 17 Strike Rate: 50% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2727.98 Overall Strike Rate: 75.7% Level Stakes Profit: -22.61 pts 50 wins from 66 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 67) AIK v Orgryte - Lay Any Unquoted Correct Score - 6.2 - Backers stake £19.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 21, 2009 Author Share Posted September 21, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 68) Kasimpasa v Galatasaray - Lay 1-1 Correct Score - 13 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria The two bets were winners yesterday but Galatsary left it very late. I am considering betting on all sports for this challenge as i feel i am limiting myself by only sticking to football. Day 19 Results Bet 67) AIK v Orgryte - Lay Any Unquoted Correct Score - 6.2 - Won +18.60 Bet 68) Kasimpasa v Galatasaray - Lay 1-1 Correct Score - 13 - Won +12.39 Day 19 P/L: +£30.99 Day 19 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2758.97 Overall Strike Rate: 76.4% Level Stakes Profit: -20.71 pts 52 wins from 68 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 69) Arsenal v West Brom - Lay 1-0 Correct Score - 11.5 - Backers stake £13.05 Bet 70) Sunderland v Birmingham - Lay 0-0 Correct Score - 11.5 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria I had 2 very contrasting results today the 0-0 lay was a winner after only 4 minutes but the Arsenal bet i had to wait a lot longer for but it won in the end maybe my luck is starting to change. I am still a long way from where i want to be but if I could get back to my starting bank after 100 bets i would be happy. Day 20 Results Bet 69) Arsenal v West Brom - Lay 1-0 Correct Score - 11.5 - Won +12.39 Bet 70) Sunderland v Birmingham - Lay 0-0 Correct Score - 11.5 - Won +12.39 Day 20 P/L: +£24.78 Day 20 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2783.75 Overall Strike Rate: 77.1% Level Stakes Profit: -18.81 pts 54 wins from 70 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 71) Rosenborg v Tromso - Lay Tromso - 9.2 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Just the one bet yesterday which was a winner although it wasn't as comfortable as i would have liked with the game ending 0-0. Day 21 Results Bet 71) Rosenborg v Tromso - Lay Tromso - 9.2 - Won +12.39 Day 21 P/L: +£12.39 Day 21 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2796.14 Overall Strike Rate: 77.4% Level Stakes Profit: -17.86 pts 55 wins from 71 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 72) Man City v West Ham - Lay 7 or more goals - In Play - 9.19 - Backers stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Day 25 Results Bet 72) Man City v West Ham - Lay 7 or more goals - In Play - 9.19 - Won +12.39 Day 25 P/L: +£12.39 Day 25 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2808.53 Overall Strike Rate: 77.7% Level Stakes Profit: -16.91 pts 56 wins from 72 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 73) Rubin Kazan v Inter - Lay Correct Score Any Unquoted - 12.5 - Backers stake £13.05 More to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Day 26 Results Bet 73) Rubin Kazan v Inter - Lay Correct Score Any Unquoted - 12.5 - Won +12.39 Day 26 P/L: +£12.39 Day 26 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2820.92 Overall Strike Rate: 78% Level Stakes Profit: -15.96 pts 57 wins from 73 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Bet 74) Man Utd v Wolfsburg - Lay 9 Booking Points or Over - 3.2 - Backers stake £32.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Football Laying like Maria Day 27 Results Bet 74) Man Utd v Wolfsburg - Lay 9 Booking Points or Over - 3.2 - Won +31 Day 27 P/L: +£31 Day 27 Strike Rate: 100% Starting Bank: £3000 Current Bank: £2851.92 Overall Strike Rate: 78.3% Level Stakes Profit: -15.01 pts 58 wins from 74 bets Stakes remain the same: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £32.64 Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £19.58 Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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