Goodwood - Sat 29th Aug

[fintron]

2.05 Goodwood Golden Desert has done most of his racing over seven furlongs but is a dual distance winner over this six furlong trip too. Ryan Moore, top course jockey, replaces Tom Queally in the saddle and although up 3 lbs even in defeat from his last run, he has been in very consistent form of late and could go close. Rash Judgement has been a transformed animal since being gelded this season and chased home the classy High Standing over course and distance last time out. He clearly handles this track well and is open to more improvement for Stuart Kittow. Golden Desert 6/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Rash Judgement 7/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt win

[mowgli77]

Re: Goodwood - Sat 29th Aug Goodwood 2.35 Windflower March Stakes Listed Race 1m6f This race revolves around Urban Poet, it is likely to go off as favourite and is talked about as a St Leger entry that might be supplemented for that race yet I think it could have been massively overrated. The pundits have mentioned how it trounced the field on its debut in a maiden race but it was a field of poor horses that have not done anything of note since, yes it won by 9 lengths but it beat nothing. It was then 3rd to Harbinger at this track over 1m4f but that form does not look all that strong either, horses from that race since: Harbinger - Last, possibly something amiss Firebet - not raced since Tactic - not raced since Montaff - placed in a class 3 race Heliodor - not raced since Big Bound - not raced since Masterofthehorse - not raced since but had some good Gp 1 form but over 1m4f, 2nd last on its last outing Swindler - not raced since Urban Poet was short of room for a run and looked to finish the race well but had obviously conserved energy behind horses by not getting the run needed, when it did get out it was too late. It could be a very good horse but I feel the price is too short, has to prove its class and that it gets the trip. Mourilyan has a few bits of good form, the 2nd to Veracity in a decent 72k NAS race and the 2nd here to Schiaparelli in a Gp 2 race, only losing out by 1 length but finishing the race well in the last furlong. It was dropped slightly in trip last time out when behind Kite Wood, that horse is now the St Leger favourite. Halicarnassus was back in 3rd and is a consistent horse at this sort of level over 1m4f. The concern with Mourilyan is that it has forgotten how to win, last victory was Feb 2008. Course form is important for me here and can often be worth a few extra lbs and the 2nd to Schiaparelli was here, it steps back up to 1m6f today and that extra 1/2 f should suit it. 5-1 with VCBet seems quite generous. King Of Wands looks highly progressive but might have gone a step too far for this race, it is hard to tell. Eddie Ahern won easily and cosily on the horse off a rating of 83. It was put up 3lb and raced off 86, Ryan Moore rode it that time and instead of winning cosily he destroyed the field by 8 lengths, the handicapper has noticed and whacked it up 14lbs for today to race off 100. They say weight stops trains and that is the worry here but it could be that progressive that it could shrug off this burden of the extra weight. Its last 2 wins were over this trip in small fields of 4 runners and it placed here as a 2 yr old. 4 favs have won this race in the last 10 years but only 3 winners in those 10 years have been 3 year olds, which goes against both Urban Poet and King Of Wands. I feel the other horses are priced about right apart from Star Of Pompey which should be about 1000-1, it is a class 6 horse and has no place in this line up. I feel Mourilyan should be shorter and I'm more confident about this than King Of Wands which is quite an unknown but worth some investment and will split 20pts as follows: 15pts WIN Mourilyan 5-1 VCBet 5pts WIN King Of Wands 4-1 Bet365