Stewart's Road to Cheltenham

[stewartd14]

The Cheltenham Festival excites me hugely. For me, it is the racing festival of the year and I would happily take the Triumph Hurdle over the Derby. It stops the racing nation for 4 days and offers quality racing throughout. Due to this publicity and popularity, the ante post markets are very playable, and there is often plenty of information in the press about the wellbeing of horses etc. So, here comes this thread. The aims of this thread:

• To build up a vast knowledge of horses likely to be running at Cheltenham, and horses potentially good enough etc
• To create a form preview for every horse with information such as likelyhood to handle Cheltenham, stay distances etc.
• Track ante post bets, and try to beat the prices on the day.

All will probably become clearer once I start, and it may well be possible that I have seriously underestimated the task at hand. The intention is to have many of the old yardsticks done before the season starts - e.g. Gold Cup contenders, and then I only need to analyse their runs as they run etc, but the basic outline of the form will already be there. I will create a post for each race and then open this thread. Although I will be able to watch most races, I am obviouslygoing to miss a couple of races, miss some horses etc, so the input of other members would really be appreciated here. The intention is to build a detailed Cheltenham guide for all members of PL. Here goes many frustrating withdrawals and horses appearing from nowhere. For what its worth, I will mainly be focussing on the Group races. I will add links to this post for ease of viewing and finding each race. I should add, I will be attempting to develop my own speed ratings for the build up to Cheltenham. Day 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle The Arkle WH Handicap Trophy CHAMPION HURDLE Cross Country Chase David Nicholson Mares Hurdle DAY 2 Ballymore Hurdle RSA Chase CHAMPION CHASE Fred Winter Novice Hurdle Champion Bumper DAY 3 Pertemps Final Ryanair Chase WORLD HURDLE DAY 4 Triumph Hurdle Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle GOLD CUP Grand Annual Chase FORM ANALYSIS RSA Chase 2008 - Formwatch ANTE POST BETS GOLD CUP 3.5 pts win Denman @ 6.62 Av Betfair (Apr 09) 1 pt win Denman @ 6/1 William Hill (Apr 09) 0.5 pt win Denman @ 7.2 Betfair (21 Oct 09) CHAMPION HURDLE 2 pts Hurricane Fly @ 5.3 Av Betfair (Apr 09) 0.3 pts Dunguib @ 44.0 Betfair (21 Oct 09) WORLD HURDLE 0.7 pts Big Bucks @ 4.5 Betfair (Apr 09) CHAMPION CHASE 0.5 pts Well Chief @ 36.0 Betfair (22 Oct 09) RSA CHASE 0.6 pts Pride of Dulcote @ 22.0 Betfair (20 Oct 09) ARKLE CHASE 0.5 pt win Jered @ 65.0 Betfair (22 Oct 09)

[stewartd14]

Supreme Novice Hurdle Supreme Novices Hurdle 2m 110 yards 4 y o and upwards Supreme Novices Hurdle - Final Blackstairmountain Willie Mullins' first string for the race. Not a horse that appealed to me much prior to this season, but you cant fault him. Done nothing wrong, has a turn of foot, and hasnt been off the bridle over hurdles. My worry lies in the below average performances he put in when faced with tougher opposition - mainly behind Universal Truth. Fits more of the trends than most of these .... and I think he may be a runner worthy of a saver. Chain of Command Only 1/4 in his career, and his only win came in a weak Hereford race. Well beat at Ascot last time. Discount. Cootehill Probably the most experienced runner in the field. Previously a 117 rated handicapper - raced in novice company for most of this season. Will find this too tough. Dan Breen Hard to assess. Won all 3 starts under rules, but with only 1 run over hurdles, experience is a worry. David Pipe has hit form at the right time though. 20/1 ... I can avoid - better bets here. Dunguib The favourite here, and many people's idea of a banker. His jumping has been pinpointed as the big negative, but many of the top trainers in Ireland expect a big improvement in his hurdling when he lines up tomorrow. That said however, it is still a doubt. Form wise though, he is a just favourite - my 1 issue is that all his hurdler wins have been on heavy, and whether he will be able to jump fluently when going at a quicker pace than he is used to is a worry. I cant be a backer at odds on win or lose. Fiulin Very classy flat performer, but I'm not sure what to make of the fact he went off 20/1 on his hurdles debut. A horse that was rated in the low 100's on the flat has to be respected, but its hard to ignore his very poor run on debut. Evan Williams is in a bit of form, however, which is a positive. Flat Out Willie Mullins' apparent 2nd string here, but was very impressive on his hurdling bow at Punchestown. Again, he didnt beat a great deal, but not much in this field has bar Dunguib. The fact Ruby has chosen Blackstairmountain is a negative, but maybe Flat Out may run slightly above what his price indicates. General Miller Probably needs further than 2 miles, and may find this a bit sharp. Beaten behind Restless Harry last time - and although some could say he didnt get home that day, I think he is rightly a bigger price than Oscar Whisky. The won last time out stat is probably a key trend here, and General Miller would be ruled out by that. Get Me Out of Here Rare for a horse that has gone through the handicap routes to even line up here, never mind line up at 9/1, but Get me Out of Here has gone from strength to strength for Jonjo O Neill. Beat a number of decent elders in the Totesport Trophy last time, and will handle the big field and the likely fast pace. I do, however, feel that we have missed the boat with regard to price, so I will be letting him run with no financial interest. Menorah Already on this one ante post before he ran last time when defeated by a poor Richard Johnson ride (no more about that). Dissapointed behind Bobby Ewing though, and I'm not sure how many more chances you can give this horse. Certainly not owrthy of topping up at around 12/1. Oscar Whisky Already my main ante post bet in this race, and I still fancy him strongly. I wrote this about him when I posted the bet, and stand by it - especially with the chinks in Dubguib's armour. Quote:

Looks a live threat to Dunguib, and one of the only horses that can actually challenge him. I took this bet just after OW won on his re-appearance, and I was very taken by that run. It now looks to be all systems go for the Supreme, and the Henderson yard is going strong. Is now unbeaten in 4, jumps fluently, and has a high crusing speed. Looks a genuine danger to Dunguib.

Bets 1 pt ew Oscar Whiskey @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (Already Advised) 2.5 pts win Oscar Whiskey @ 17.0 Betfair (Already Advised) 1 pt win Menorah @ 11.0 Betfair (Already Advised) Adding: 0.75 pt ew Blackstairmountain @ 12/1 William Hill 0.2 pt ew Fiulin w/o Dunguib @ 66/1 Bet 365