English League Draw System (Beta Phase)

[Crouch Potato]

I'm currently testing a draw system that I have devised for English Football. So far I have only research the EPL, but over the four seasons I've tested there are on average just 25 bets per season. What I want to know/am concerned about is: 1) How much will the small bets/season ratio affect my ability to have trust in my numbers and results 2) I believe that my system parameters work a little differently in each of the divisions. How much trust can I put into a combined set of data? 3) I expect that from season to season, my numbers will differ a fair bit, particularly from league to league. What can I learn from the fact that from season to season, particularly in each league, my numbers are somewhat eratic? My results so far are (flat stakes -1pt per bet): EPL 2008/09: 32 Bets/10 Wins. Profit +4.18 (Yield = +13%) EPL 2007/08: 32 Bets/16 Wins. Profit +24.44 (Yield = +76.3%) EPL 2006/07: 19 Bets/9 Wins. Profit +15.65 (Yield = +82.36%) EPL 2005/06: 18 Bets/2 Wins. Profit -11.66 (Yield = -64.7%) Overall: 101 Bets/37 Wins. Profit +32.61 (Yield = +32.3%) I know 101 is comparatively, a very small sample size, but as I said before, there are very few games each year which fall in my defined parameters. Anyway, I've heard a Chi test is a good barometer in terms of testing the validity of data. I've searched the forums and tried to understand it, but I was wondering if maybe somebody could do a preliminary Chi result with the data I have so far? I have attached a spreadsheet - I believe the relevant information is there. In column 1 I have the season, column 2 the league (I'm obviously going to be adding to the file). Column 3 are the draw odds, column 4 is the book % (based on HW/D/AW odds for the match). All HW/D/AW odds were obtained from the same bookie, and wherever possible I have used Pinnacle's odds. Column 5 is the Win column, with a 1 denoting a win. I'm sure somebody out there understands this Chi-test better than I do :hope In the meantime, I'll start backtesting the Championship.

[KThom]

Re: Data Analysis (Chi Square etc.) Hi. I've set up a chi test calculator in excel so will pump your results and odds in total and see what it gives. Also using the same data I can produce a simple t test analysis. I'll have a look this morning.