muppet77 Posted July 30, 2009 Share Posted July 30, 2009 Re: Data Analysis (Chi Square etc.) stake per corner is not always the total stake though. that's the problem. i take the profit or loss to be the stake- thats the best i can think of and pretend it is an even money bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 12, 2009 Author Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: Data Analysis (Chi Square etc.) Lost focus on this a bit, but have managed to finish off the 07/08 Championship data. Bets: 48 Wins: 18 Profit: +12.66 Yield: 26.3% Think I will start on League One and Two, partly due to time, though I am almost certain the 06/07 Championship was something like 12/50, so obviously not too motivated to get those numbers. I will include them before initiating the system proper though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 15, 2009 Author Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: Data Analysis (Chi Square etc.) Ok, not really been too motivated to do the research for this, but I'll implement a beta version of this system. I am fairly confident that this is a profitable system (albeit not convinced it's a greatly profitable one), so I will be using real stakes. All bets will be with Paddy Power (for this beta phase) Match Day 1 €50 - Doncaster v Preston @ 3.30 €50 - Hereford v Cheltenham @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Solid start with both games ending 1-1. Bets: 2 Wins: 2 Staked: €100 Returned: €335 Profit: +€235 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) :ok Good start CP! Hope it continues, will watch with interest! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Cheers mate. Match Day 2 €50 - Sunderland v Chelsea @ 3.75 €50 - Plymouth v Cardiff @ 3.30 €50 - Walsall v Leeds @ 3.50 €50 - Rochdale v Cheltenham @ 3.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted August 18, 2009 Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) 2 late goals spoiled you today Crouch Potato, good luck with this it looks promising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 21, 2009 Author Share Posted August 21, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Yeah, it's promising, but non system results are killing most of the enthusiasm I have for this (and gambling in general for that matter). Bets: 6 Wins: 2 Staked: €300 Returned: €335 Profit: +€35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 22, 2009 Author Share Posted August 22, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 3 €50 - Birmingham v Stoke @ 3.20 €50 - Cheltenham v Bradford @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 23, 2009 Author Share Posted August 23, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) 1/2 on Saturday. Bets: 8 Wins: 3 Staked: €400 Returned: €495 Profit: +€95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 29, 2009 Author Share Posted August 29, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 4 €50 - Nottingham Forest v Derby @ 3.25 €50 - Brentford v Oldham @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted August 29, 2009 Author Share Posted August 29, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) 1/2 Today. Final push by Derby wasn't enough. Bets: 10 Wins: 4 Staked: €500 Returned: €665 Profit: +€165 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 2, 2009 Author Share Posted September 2, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 5 €50 - Northampton v Barnet @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 2, 2009 Author Share Posted September 2, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 6 €50 - Carlisle v Tranmere @ 3.30 €50 - Leeds v Stockport @ 4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted September 3, 2009 Share Posted September 3, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Good start to this CP. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 7, 2009 Author Share Posted September 7, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Good start to this CP. :clap It was for a while :sad Bets: 13 Wins: 4 Staked: €650 Returned: €665 Profit: +€15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 11, 2009 Author Share Posted September 11, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 7 €50 - Coventry v Bristol @ 3.30 €50 - Preston v Swansea @ 3.40 €50 - Tottenham v Man Utd @ 3.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) 1/3 yesterday. Bets: 16 Wins: 5 Staked: €800 Returned: €830 Profit: +€30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 8 €50 - Fulham v Everton @ 3.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Into negative territory for the first time. Bets: 17 Wins: 5 Staked: €850 Returned: €830 Profit: -€20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 9 €50 - Barnsley v Swansea @ 3.40 €50 - Brentford v Bristol @ 3.40 €50 - Cheltenham v Rotherham @ 3.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Same profit levels that we were at after bet 10. Bets: 20 Wins: 7 Staked: €1000 Returned: €1165 Profit: +€165 Yield: +16.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 10 €50 - Chelsea v Tottenham @ 4.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Bets: 21 Wins: 7 Staked: €1050 Returned: €1165 Profit: +€115 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 11 €50 - Stoke v Man Utd @ 4.20 €50 - Scunthorpe v Doncaster @ 3.30 €50 - Leicester v Preston @ 3.30 €50 - Blackpool v Peterborough @ 3.40 €50 - Gillingham v Norwich @ 3.30 €50 - Southend v Oldham @ 3.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) 2/6 for the day so extremely standard. Would be nice to strike at better than 1 in 3. Bets: 27 Wins: 9 Staked: €1350 Returned: €1495 Profit: +€145 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Crouchy, perhaps combine your selections with further filtering. These are your selections with my ratings. Not looked at the scores, but would have steered away from Stoke, Southend, may be Blackpool. I'd have looked at anything between 50-65%, as the ratings include the hometeam advantage: Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy 26/09/2009 Championship Blackpool Peterboro 63.83% 26/09/2009 League 1 Gillingham Norwich 53.59% 26/09/2009 Championship Leicester Preston 58.01% 26/09/2009 Championship Scunthorpe Doncaster 54.75% 26/09/2009 League 1 Southend Oldham 74.25% 26/09/2009 Premier League Stoke Man United 17.27% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Match Day 12 €50 - Doncaster v Swansea @ 3.25 €50 - Watford v Coventry @ 3.30 €50 - Leeds v Carlisle @ 4.50 €50 - Southampton v Bristol @ 3.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Crouchy, perhaps combine your selections with further filtering. These are your selections with my ratings. Not looked at the scores, but would have steered away from Stoke, Southend, may be Blackpool. I'd have looked at anything between 50-65%, as the ratings include the hometeam advantage: Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy 26/09/2009 Championship Blackpool Peterboro 63.83% 26/09/2009 League 1 Gillingham Norwich 53.59% 26/09/2009 Championship Leicester Preston 58.01% 26/09/2009 Championship Scunthorpe Doncaster 54.75% 26/09/2009 League 1 Southend Oldham 74.25% 26/09/2009 Premier League Stoke Man United 17.27% The criteria I've used at the moment is strongly filtered. There is perhaps a strong argument to filter out the big 4 teams due to their superior strength but such an argument can't possibly extend to the lower leagues. For instance, even though the Southend game wasn't a draw, Southend didn't win the game either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: English League Draw System (Beta Phase) Bets: 31 Wins: 11 Staked: €1550 Returned: €1882.50 Profit: +€332.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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