Newcastle - Sat 25th July

[fintron]

2.30 Newcastle Temperament is an issue with such lightly raced types. As they learn their job they often display signs of greenness or unwanted behaviour pre-race, and this was what ruined Ananda Kanda's chances last time out at Kempton where she was reluctant to load into the stalls. However, my experience with Tom Folan says that one should not give up on such horses if the belief that they are well handicapped remains, as they may settle down and show their true colours at any moment, and I'm hoping that is the case here. I backed her that day at Kempton because I thought her Haydock beating of Jeanie Johnson read well. That rival is well regarded and was second to Jira in a listed race when last seen. Refuse to Wait, third at Haydock that day, has also won since (conincidentally at this track) so I think that form has been boosted. 12/1 Bet 365.

[bowles10]

Re: Newcastle - Sat 25th July

28-06-2009, 13:30

#41 (permalink)

bowles10 Trend Specialist Join Date: 07 Nov 2002 Location: Block NU, Loft Upper, W12 Age: 42 Posts: 18,176 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1

Re: 2009 Effects of the Draw Quote: Originally Posted by RussP Newcastle Draw Guide Over 5f it pays to be drawn either very high or very low. The size of the field can be crucial as in smaller fields they tend not to split into two groups. Over 6f however, you would usually be happier drawn high even in big fields. The one problem with Newcastle is that strong biases do occur, but not all the time. Having said that, it would have paid dividends perming the three highest draws in 5f/6f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £210.07 (ROI +71.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race. Over 7f there is an advantage to be being drawn very high. Indeed backing the highest drawn horse “blind” in all 10+ runner handicaps from 2005 to 2008 would have yielded a profit of £31.50 (ROI +101.6%). 1m races are round on both the straight and the round course. On the straight course high draws have a slight edge, while there is no bias over the round 1m. There is also now draw bias at longer distances on the round course. after what i posted up this week at Newcastle, i think the mid to high numbers have such an advantage now when the stalls are stands side.

Just posting this up again, time & time again this season high numbers have won at Newcastle. 3 highest drawn runners in each race are : 2.30 Olympic ceremoney 3.00 Young firth 3.35 Aquarian spirit 4.10 Mister laurel 4.45 Protector 5.20 Luscivious 5.50 Ozone trustee up to 7f, the races are above. looking at perming ew trebles.