Ascot - Sat 25th July

[fintron]

3.50 Ascot The Abu Dhabi International Heritage Handicap is the main handicap of the day and from this twenty-two runner strong field I prefer the claims of Dohasa the most. Ger Lyons brings two runners over from Ireland and this gelding is due to be ridden by Kevin Latham, successful up at Thirsk when riding for Pat Morris today. The horse is one of the highest-rated runners in the field here, running off 109, 1 lb below the top-weight, but he is a classy type that has held his own in Group company this season when second to the useful Mad About You at the Curragh in April. The third, Kargali, came out of that race and won at listed level since, which boosts the form, and Dohaha himself again ran another huge race in Group company when last seen, going down by just a neck to Duff, a horse I have a lot of respect for after some top-class all-weather romps around Christmas time. Dohasa had the likes of Aidan O'Brien's Georgebernardshaw and Jim Bolger's Three Rocks (subsequent Group 3 winner) behind - it stacks up to be solid group form and as a result I have no doubt he can run to a 109 rating here. Dohaha's last win in handicap company came at Dundalk last season when he won off 4 lb lower, but his recent form suggests he can bridge the 4 lb gap and there is every chance he will get the race run to suit here. The Mark Johnston pair Crackdown and Thebes should ensure a good pace from the centre stalls and Roaring Forte and Horatio Carter will also ensure they go at a pace from the high numbers. In stall 14 inbetween, Dohasa is well positioned to capitalise off a strong pace, and I think the price on offer tonight is too good to be missed bearing in mind those two aforementioned pieces of group form came over this trip and he is better on firmer ground than soft. 40/1 VC Bet, EW.

[billy the punter]

Re: Ascot - Sat 25th July Already played ante-post in this, so here are my thoughts... Abu Dhabi International Stakes - Ascot 25th July Unsurprisingly the Abu Dhabi International, formally the Tote/Totesport International Handicap, has been won by some decent in recent years. Five of the last ten winners won of a mark in the 100's and nine had either been contesting, or went on to contest Group races. It will be a simialr story for the winner of this year's renewal. Of big three 7f handicaps this season (Victoria Cup, Buckingham Palace Stakes, Bunbury Cup) two have been a disappoinment. The Victoria Cup was of a relatively poor standard and the Bunbury Cup was ran at a farcical pace, as the result the form of both races is questionable - although seeing as the winners of both races (Swift Gift and Plum Pudding) are not taking their chance here that knowledge isn't as useful as it might have been. Unlike the Bunbury Cup, where Plum Pudding was gifted an uncontested lead, a study of the projected pace suggests a decent gallop.

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With only 22 lining up and the stalls positioned in the centre it's probable the field will come down the middle in one group, negating any draw bias. This is good news for those drawn high as they may be disadvantaged if the field were to split. With five prominent races, Signor Peltro, Crackdown, Dianes Choice, Taqdeyr and Thebes drawn in stalls 5 to 10 those drawn mid/low would enjoy a nice lead. There is just one prominent racer drawn high - Roaring Forte is stall 17. Horatio Carter in the 19 box likes to run up with the pace but will only track whatever pace is in front, he will not be forcing. We don't know a great deal about Captain Brilliance (15), he has been held up in the past but was fairly prominent when 2nd in the Bunbury, that maneuver may just have been Johnny Murtagh adapting to the slow pace. Wherever they go the gallop is certain to be strong and those held up off the pace look sure to benefit. One that fits that bill is the Michael Bell trained Redford. The 100 rated 4yo, already dabbling in pattern company, looks a typical winner of this event. 6th in this last year (as 3yo), he has been in typically consistent form this year. After a 6f pipe-opener in May he was a solid 3rd in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground possibly too quick. Then LTO he was 6th behind Plum Pudding (Captain Brilliance 2nd, Racer Forever 5th) in the Bunbury, again the ground would have been quicker than ideal and given the snail-like pace it was a monster effort to get so close given his running style. I believe him to be equally as effective over 7f or a mile so the stiff 7f here, at a decent clip, should prove ideal. With ticks in plenty of boxes, plus the added bonus of many of the originally leading protagonists doubly entered here and Goodwood, I decided to go in early with Redford and advised him ante-post at 16/1 (E/W) last week. With today's rain taking the sting out of the ground and with the draw confirming he will definitely be assured a lead I see no reason to change my mind. In fact I may go in again at the 12/1 with Stan James. There are obvious dangers... Captain Brilliance - another who would not have been suited tracking a slow pace at Newmarket but run well despite that. Very much an unknown quantity but I can't help but think he is priced up based on what Forgotten Voice (a stablemate with a similar profile), did earlier this season. Roaring Forte - always been highly regarded, broke the juvenile record at Lingfield despite easing down. Has no experience of big fields and with the (albeit small) worry of front-running alone on the fair side, he is short enough. Secret Society - progressing at a rate of knots and looks the pick of the 3yo's and those at the foot of the weights. Racer Forever - closely weighted with Redford on Ascot and Newmarket form. Also hindered by how the race was run at Newmarket and if I'm right about Redford he should be too far behind. Taqdeyr - Steadily improving and not disgraced when upped in class over 7f recently. Still weighted to be competitive. At 18/1 with Bet365 he is interesting me most as the potential 2nd selection.