Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 This is doing my head in as i just can't seem to work it out. I have a bet at a bookie for 25 @ 2.30 which is a free bet, stake not returned, so if it wins you only get the profit being 32.5 I want to cover this bet by laying at an exchange and thus securing a profit both ways. Lay odds are 2.30 with 5% commission. (but odds are usually a little bigger say 2.35 ) Now i know that i need to Lay 14.44 for a liability of 18.78 ( as there's a site with a calculator that tells me this :D ) How the f*** do you work it out ? I'll spell it out first: winning at the bookie: 25 @ 2.30 gives 32.5 profit when winning at the bookie, minus the liability at the exchange -18.78 is an actual profit of 13.72 winning at the exchange: 14.44 @ 2.30 gives (-5%) 13.72 profit if winning at the exchange side, no loss at the bookie as that is a free bet anyhow so actual profit 13.72 So either way the actual profit is the same: 13.72 How do i work out the 14.44 so i get equal profit either way ????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melcon Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability Hi datapunter: you want to equal both sides: winning at bookie stake bookie * 1.3 - Liab *1.3 winning at exchange liab * 0.95 so stake b * 1.3 - liab *1.3 = liab *0.95 ==> stake b * (1.3) = liab * (0.95 +1.3) ==> stake b * ( 1.3 / 2.25) = liab stake b is 25 in your case so liab = 25 * 1.3/2.25 = 14.44 hope that helps melcon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability You've completely lost me on that one 14.44 is not the liability, it is the stake you enter, in this case 14.44 @ 2.30 gives a liability of 18.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trevman Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php but your backed at 2.30 and your trying to lay at 2.30 - commission = this is not going to work odds after commission = ((2.30-1)*0.95)+1 = 2.235, enter that in hte above calculator and you'll see what you'll lose also http://www.arbcruncher.com/back-lay-betting-calculator.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability Don't care what i win/lose, irrelevant in this case as basically i want equal both side, win or lose, just how the calculation works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability You're on the wrong track trevman, i'm talking about a free bet stake not returned, so there is no loss at the bookie when you win at the lay side. http://87.106.102.151/bet/index.php Pick any bookie, pick "Free bet, stake not returned", click on the "Go" button next to any match. How do you do those calculations, that's the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability Can you get to the script behind the button on this page? http://www.matchedbetting.net/betting-calculator/ Thinking of signing up for some new accounts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability Aghhh a bit of reverse engineering, been a while since i done that, let's have a look then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melcon Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability hi. Sorry for the misleading name. Just replace liab by exchange stake. It just set the case of bookie win in which case you lose at the exchange and the exchange win ,then you lose nothing at the bookie, equal. That must hold for the stake you look for. The rest is just some algebra to get the bookie stake alone on one side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability Right, for stake not returned its: bookieprofit / (layodds - laypercent ) = laystake 32.5 / ( 2.3 - 0.05 ) = 14.44 = liability of 18.77 @ odds of 2.3 14.44 * .95 = 13.72 net 32.5 - 18.77 = 13.72 net lovely jubbly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: Math question on calculating stake/liability thanks melcon, you got it, just me that didn't get it :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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