Furlong Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hi Adam, assuming we have both used same race times, i make it a 'paper' profit of £57.50 for today...see below. Wk2 09/07/09 10 3 Newmarket 2.00 7 4 5.71 10.00 W 27.50 10 Thursday 10 5 Warwick 2.20 2 1 5.00 5.00 W` 15.00 10 10 8 Warwick 2.55 9 4 4.44 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 13 Folkeston 3.55 11 4 9.09 10.00 L 35.00 45 45 3 Epsom 6.50 9 4 20.00 20.00 L 65.00 75 75 5 Epsom 7.25 6 4 50.00 50.00 W 125.00 10 10 8 Doncaster 8.15 11 8 7.27 10.00 L 110.00 167.50 57.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Please explain your c/f column - I think I may have missed a formula here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help It is my understanding that the c/f column is this: If the horse won then the c/f column = 0 If the horse lost then the c/f column = the stake lost. This is then added the the end column which is used to determine the next races pts places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hi I did explain this in an earlier post but to clarify......... "Should your bet lose you add together the values of col's 1 & 8 and enter this value into col 11. You now ADD 10 to this value and enter that figure into col 13 - and carry forward to col 1." Hope this makes it all clear now Adam...did you get the same outcome for yesterday as me? Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Thanks mike. With 6 straight losses and a horse priced below evens in the 7th race of the day could this lead to a huge stake needing to be placed? £300+? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Thanks mike. With 6 straight losses and a horse priced below evens in the 7th race of the day could this lead to a huge stake needing to be placed? £300+? Yes, it is possible that with 5 or 6 big odds-on favs losing the stakes would become quite high....but in my experience the majority of these short priced horses do win and i have never had a run of more than two losing in one day. Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hey Mike, first I got a totally different result as I forgot to round up the nearest £5 but yes eventually I got the same result as yourself. I think the continuation of the evening races combined with the day races would make a big difference. I know kthom has 6 months of results just for the day races but it would be interesting to see what the results would show with the evening races included. Overall tho my staking system is played with a £100 starting bank and yearly profits are over £100 meaning a 100%+ profit. Which I think is pretty good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Yes, it would be interesting to back test all results but for now i am happy to let this ride for a few weeks and see what the outcome is. At the end of the day a profit is a profit - regardless of the amount and how much you bet. The only problem is when you hit a losing run - and it happens - which can quickly wipe out any profit plus your bank. That is why it is so important to have a sensible betting bank and this being money that you can afford to lose. Just to clarify todays selctions, am i correct with the following, taken from RP.....? 215 York 235 NM 310 NM 410 Ascot 640 Chester 700 Chepstow 735 Chepstow 830 Newbury Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Yes just checked and I have the same selections for today. Yes I know what you mean about the bank, and i'm thinking that the evening races would make all the difference in the long losing runs. Since the middle of May i dont think iv seen a day where there hasnt been a winner between the day and evening races. Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Well it looks like we have a pretty good system going on here. Kthom is there any chance you could post a little more detail such as the longest losing run etc? As Mike said thank you for putting in all the hard work - hopefully you can reap the benefits soon :) Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hi both, no problem. Afterall it was only after shadowvkc asked for analysis help and furlong provided his staking plan that my involvement came in. Incidentally I forgot the stake aswell on shadowvkcs results but furlongs were still more profitable. I do have streak results and also max/avg stakes. Will post up later as got proper work to do first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Have any of you compared this 3,5,8,13 system to just backing the favs @ evens and above in every daytime race ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Update on results for yesterday plus running totals for current 'paper trading week' 09/07/09 10 3 Newmarket 2.00 7 4 5.71 10.00 W 27.50 10 Thursday 10 5 Warwick 2.20 2 1 5.00 5.00 W` 15.00 10 Day1– Wk2 10 8 Warwick 2.55 9 4 4.44 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 13 Folkeston 3.55 11 4 9.09 10.00 L 35.00 45 45 3 Epsom 6.50 9 4 20.00 20.00 L 65.00 75 75 5 Epsom 7.25 6 4 50.00 50.00 W 125.00 10 10 8 Doncaster 8.15 11 8 7.27 10.00 L 10/07/09 10 3 York 2.15 2 1 5.00 5.00 W 15.00 10 Friday 10 5 Newmarket 2.35 3 1 3.33 5.00 L 10.00 20 Day2-Wk2 20 8 Newmarket 3.10 11 8 14.55 15.00 L 35.00 45 45 13 Ascot 4.10 5 2 18.00 20.00 L 65.00 75 75 3 Chester 6.40 5 2 30.00 30.00 L 105.00 115 115 5 Chepstow 7.00 15 8 61.33 65.00 L 180.00 190 190 8 Chepstow 7.35 3 1 63.33 65.00 L 255.00 265 265 13 Newbury 8.30 2 1 132.50 135.00 W 405.00 10 340.00 420.00 80.00 Week 2 £450.00 £587.50 £137.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Why was the stake on the first Chester race only 30? Shouldnt this have reflected the 75 point carry over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Why was the stake on the first Chester race only 30? Shouldnt this have reflected the 75 point carry over? 75 divided by the odds of 5/2 gives a stake of 30 Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help kthom as you have most of the data already, how hard would it be to do a 6 month sheet using the system furlong is using - i.e picking 3,5,8 and 13 from both the day AND the night? Because this seems to be very profitable compared to just 3, 5, 8 and 13 regardless of day or evening? Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help kthom as you have most of the data already, how hard would it be to do a 6 month sheet using the system furlong is using - i.e picking 3,5,8 and 13 from both the day AND the night? Because this seems to be very profitable compared to just 3, 5, 8 and 13 regardless of day or evening? Adam Hi Adam You have to bear in mind of course that during the winter jump season you will only have the day meetings and on some days only two meetings a day. Here are the 'paper' results for Saturday 11th July, day 3 - week 2. 11/07/09 10 3 Nottingham 2.15 7 4 5.71 10 L 20 30 Saturday 30 5 Chester 2.25 13 8 18.46 20 L 50 60 Day3-Wk2 60 8 Ascot 2.50 15 8 32.00 35 W` 100.62 10 10 13 Chester 3.30 6 5 8.33 10 W 22.00 10 10 3 Hamilton 6.35 11 8 7.27 10 L 20 30 30 5 Hamilton 7.05 5 4 24.00 25 W 56.25 10 10 8 Salisbury 7.55 5 2 4.00 5 L 10 115.00 178.87 63.87 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 73.00 Week 2 £565.00 £766.37 £201.37 35.64% Average Bet £22.47 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Daily Average £164.00 £225.94 £61.94 37.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 12, 2009 Author Share Posted July 12, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help ahhh ok, theres my inexperience with horse racing showing :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Up-date for Sunday 12th July - day 4 week 2. First 'losing' day, but still showing a 'paper' profit overall :) 12/07/09 10 3 Southwell 2.20 10 3 3.00 5 W 21.67 10 Sunday 10 5 Perth 2.40 8 13 16.25 20 L 30 40 Day4-Wk2 40 8 Perth 3.10 6 5 33.33 35 L 75 85 85 13 Stratford 4.05 9 4 37.78 40 L 10 100.00 21.67 -78.33 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 77.00 Week 2 £665.00 £788.04 £123.04 18.50% Average Bet £22.60 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Daily Average £158.18 £207.37 £49.19 31.09% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Another good day - I show profits of £67.95? How do you paste the spreadsheet in like that and keep it formatted? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Another good day - I show profits of £67.95? How do you paste the spreadsheet in like that and keep it formatted? We must have different race times or something because my data is showing a profit of £37.27. I just highlight the cells i want to copy and then paste into the reply box! 13/07/09 10 3 N Abbot 2.15 1 1 10.00 10 W 20.00 10 Monday 10 5 N Abbot 2.45 5 4 8.00 10 L 20 30 Day5 Wk2 30 8 Ayr 3.30 Race abandoned due to unsafe going 10 10 13 N Abbot 4.45 3 1 3.33 5.00 L 15 25 25 3 Wolverhampton 6.50 4 1 6.25 10.00 L 35 45 45 5 Wolverhampton 7.20 6 4 30.00 30.00 L 75 85 85 8 Windsor 8.00 8 11 116.88 120.00 W 207.27 10 10 13 Wolverhampton 9.20 9 2 2.22 5.00 L 10 190.00 227.27 37.27 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 85.00 Week 2 £855.00 £1,015.31 £160.31 18.75% Average Bet £22.71 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Daily Average £160.83 £209.03 £48.19 29.96% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Update for past two days 'paper trading' and weekly results: 14/07/09 10 3 Beverley 2.45 10 3 3.00 5.00 L 15 25 Tuesday 25 5 Beverley 3.15 5 2 10.00 10.00 L 35 45 Day6 Wk2 45 8 Brighton 4.00 11 4 16.36 20.00 L 65 75 75 13 Beverley 5.15 8 15 140.63 145.00 L 220 230 230 3 Yarmouth 6.50 3 1 76.67 80.00 W 320.00 10 10 5 Yarmouth 7.20 9 4 4.44 5.00 L 15 25 25 8 Southwell 8.10 5 4 20.00 20.00 W` 45.00 15/07/09 10 3 Lingfield 2.2 11 8 7.27 10.00 L 20.00 30 Wed 30 5 Uttoxeter 2.40 2 1 15.00 15.00 L 45.00 55 Day7 Wk2 55 8 Uttoxeter 3.10 7 4 31.43 35.00 L 90.00 100 100 13 Catterick 4.00 15 8 53.33 55.00 L 155.00 165 165 3 Kempton 6.50 5 2 66.00 70.00 L 235.00 245 245 5 Kempton 7.20 9 4 108.89 110.00 W 357.50 10 10 8 Worcester 8.10 2 1 5.00 5.00 W 15.00 10 10 13 Kempton 9.20 11 8 7.27 10.00 W 23.75 10 595.00 761.25 166.25 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 100 Week 2 £1,450.00 £1,776.56 £326.56 22.52% Average Bet £25.25 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Winning Bets 34 34% Daily Average £180.36 £233.54 £53.18 29.49% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help yea i have the same results furlong. Im thinking of starting this with real money soon.. im pretty suprised that there's not more interest in this as the system is showing consecitive profits? Are you betting with money yet or still paper trialing it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help yea i have the same results furlong. Im thinking of starting this with real money soon.. im pretty suprised that there's not more interest in this as the system is showing consecitive profits? Are you betting with money yet or still paper trialing it? I still don't see the relevance of selecting (and having to double check with others) the 3rd, 5th, 8th and 13th races. They have no significance apart from the time order. I may well attempt a test that checks the results for the first race of each meet using Furlong's staking system. The results do look good on paper, but I doubt if many people can afford to stake / risk up to and over £1,000 a day (in some instances) chasing losses or obtaining profits which is what would have happened historically. I suggest a bank of well over 2000% (£2,000) if attempting real betting using the staking plan above. (Or level bets of 0.5%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help I still don't see the relevance of selecting (and having to double check with others) the 3rd, 5th, 8th and 13th races. They have no significance apart from the time order. I may well attempt a test that checks the results for the first race of each meet using Furlong's staking system. The results do look good on paper, but I doubt if many people can afford to stake / risk up to and over £1,000 a day (in some instances) chasing losses or obtaining profits which is what would have happened historically. I suggest a bank of well over 2000% (£2,000) if attempting real betting using the staking plan above. (Or level bets of 0.5%) Hi both, To answer shadow's question first.. I am just following this out of interest at the moment and have no immediate plans to use real cash. Ktom... Having looked back to your previous 'back test' - albeit it only includes races 3,5,8 & 13, i am a little puzzled at your risk/stake figure of £,1000 per day. Your results show an average of around £2,000 per month. Perhaps you could explain this for me please. In my own test the highest weekly stake is £1,450 so far so i am even more confused with your statement! Also, it is worth remembering that the target point figure can be adjusted to suit - this was never intended to be a 'blue print' for others to follow- just my own personal staking plan used for other activities. And as i stated near the begining of this thread i thought it would be interesting to use my staking plan with shadow's ideas as it fitted his system. Overall i agree that random selection of favourites is perhaps strange, BUT the results so far suggest that it is following the accepted fact that around 33% of all favourites win their races. A point to bear in mind perhaps! Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ktom... Having looked back to your previous 'back test' - albeit it only includes races 3,5,8 & 13, i am a little puzzled at your risk/stake figure of £,1000 per day. Your results show an average of around £2,000 per month. Perhaps you could explain this for me please. In my own test the highest weekly stake is £1,450 so far so i am even more confused with your statement! I think there were a few occurrences were there was a 5/6 race loosing streak (when I tested using an 8 race per day strategy), followed by an odds on favourite. This meant a lay out of around £700 on the one race, added in with the other loosing bets for the day meant over or around £1,000 risked in one day. Admittedly this only happend 2 or 3 times over the 6 month data set - but still easily enough to wipe an average punters bank balace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help I think there were a few occurrences were there was a 5/6 race loosing streak (when I tested using an 8 race per day strategy), followed by an odds on favourite. This meant a lay out of around £700 on the one race, added in with the other loosing bets for the day meant over or around £1,000 risked in one day. Admittedly this only happend 2 or 3 times over the 6 month data set - but still easily enough to wipe an average punters bank balace. After reading your comments i thought it might be interesting to see what effect taking out any odds-on bets would have on the overall outcome of my 15 day 'test' period. The results are interesting to say the least! Here are the results for yesterday, Thursday 16 July..day1 wk3 together with running totals:- NB: There were joint fav's for the 8.20 Epsom - stake was divided between both. 16/07/09 10 3 Hamilton 2.20 4 9 22.50 25.00 L 35 45 Thursday 45 5 Leicester 2.40 1 1 45.00 45.00 L 90 100 Day1– Wk3 100 8 Leicester 3.15 9 2 22.22 25.00 L 125 135 135 13 Cartmel 4.15 11 10 122.73 125.00 L 260 270 270 3 Doncaster 6.35 5 2 108.00 110.00 W 385.00 10 10 5 Bath 6.50 11 4 3.64 5.00 L 15 25 25 8 Bath 7.25 2 1 12.50 15.00 L 40 50 50 13 Epsom 8.20 4 1 12.50 15.00 W 37.50 10 365.00 422.50 57.50 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 108 Week 3 £365.00 £422.50 £57.50 15.75% Average Bet £26.76 Week 2 £1,450.00 £1,776.56 £326.56 22.52% Average Daily Bet £192.67 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Winning Bets 36 33% Daily Average £192.67 £246.14 £53.47 27.75% Same data except for all odds-on favs (9 bets) removed:- Thursday 10 5 Leicester 2.40 1 1 10.00 10.00 L 20 30 Day1– Wk3 30 8 Leicester 3.15 9 2 6.67 25.00 L 55 65 65 3 Doncaster 6.35 5 2 26.00 30.00 W 105.00 10 10 5 Bath 6.50 11 4 3.64 5.00 L 15 25 25 8 Bath 7.25 2 1 12.50 15.00 L 40 50 50 13 Epsom 8.20 4 1 12.50 15.00 W 37.50 10 100.00 142.50 42.50 Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 99 Week 3 £100.00 £142.50 £42.50 42.50% Average Bet £21.52 Week 2 £1,075.00 £1,349.29 £274.29 25.52% Average Daily Bet £142.00 Week 1 £955.00 £1,334.00 £379.00 39.69% Winning Bets 32 32% Daily Average £142.00 £188.39 £46.39 32.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Update for today - Friday 17th July. Day2 - Wk3 I will be 'testing' this for two more weeks only so have decided not to include any odds-on favourites in the remaining period. This will give a fair comparison as to the overall results after four weeks. 17/07/09 10 3 Haydock 2.20 6 4 6.67 10.00 L 20.00 30 Day2-Wk3 30 5 Nottingham 2.45 9 4 Jt Fav 15.00 15.00 W 24.30 10 10 8 Nottingham 3.20 2 1 5.00 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 13 Newbury 4.20 11 4 9.09 10.00 W 37.50 10 10 3 Hamilton 6.20 11 4 3.64 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 5 Newmarket 6.45 10 3 7.50 10.00 W 43.33 10 10 8 Newmarket 7.15 7 4 5.71 10.00 W 27.50 10 10 13 Pontefract 8.05 7 2 2.86 5.00 L 10 70.00 132.63 62.63 89.48% Stakes Returns PROFIT Yield Total Bets 114 Week 3 £145.00 £240.13 £95.13 65.61% Average Bet £23.42 Week 2 £1,450.00 £1,776.56 £326.56 22.52% Average Daily Bet £166.88 Week 1 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 38.88% Winning Bets 40 35% Daily Average £166.88 £219.36 £52.48 31.45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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