AFL Round 14

[ozgamer]

Bombers are dogs again. 4 favs are playing interstate (one game is neutral). 2 of these have poor interstate form and are playing bottom 4 teams. COLL 1.51 ESS 2.58 --- -/+12.5 MCG MELB 2.16 WCE 1.70 --- +/-5.5 MCG PORT 2.58 BRIS 1.51 --- +/-12.5 AAMI RICH 4.00 ADEL 1.25 --- +/-25.5 Carrara WB 1.36 HAWKS 3.17 --- -/+18.5 Etihad SYD 1.30 NTH 3.55 --- -/+21.5 SCG STK 2.47 CATS 1.55 --- +/-9.5 Etihad FREO 2.37 CARL 1.57 --- +/-9.5 Subiaco

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 14 Forgive me if this all gets a bit disjointed...typing on the fly here... ...not sure what to make of the Friday Night game. Bombers 'stole' Anzac Day in a stupidly free-flowing game (57-60 I50's!)... ...Collingwood now 7-0 ats when scoring at 2.00 or better (why didn't I go with it last week against a terrible Freo D?! :wall)...but Bomber D has been pretty good. 1.97 on the year, 2.03 last 5. As over-rated as we all agree Carlton are, you'd have to say the Bombers were impressive last week... ...have been impressive (number-wise) v. Carlton twice, v. Collingwood, AT Brisbane, v. St. Kilda, v. Adelaide...only really pumped by Geelong... They have struggled agaisnt good defenses... ...but Collingwood D just may be a bit over-rated. Have only played Geelong [Pies allowed 1.59] and St. Kilda [1.70] once (2 of 3 top scorers) not Bulldogs, Carlton 4th [1.71]...Bombers next on the list (behind Pies themselves)...in fact, throw in the Adelaide and Ess games and Collingwood are 0-5 SU when allowing a shot better than 2.04. So, I'm back a square one! :lol Who-ever scores at better than 2.00 will win. Not sure I can pick it. ...although Ess have gone at 1.87 last 5, and are second to the Dogs in goals/I50's @ 2.89. ok...the extremely resistable force v. the unwilling to move object! 13 (?) straight road losses up against a team who can't win when trying, and more than likely isn't... WC have to win, don't they?... ...although, now I look, Melbourne have played just 2 games (in Melbourne) against bottom 8 teams! :eek (Kangas rd. 1, and beat Richmond.) Still, Eagles numbers aren't that bad on the road. Were close AT Brisbane...should have beaten Hawthorn in Tas, should have won AT Sydney (although, how good does that look? :\)...belted by Carlton, and Richmond (new coach theory...and +8 I50's, just couldn't score)... ...and I suspect that will be the theme of the day. :zzz ;) As bad as Port have been I was really surprised to see them as 2 goal home dogs. Brisbane have been poor on the road...only av'ing 20 shots...but did turn it around last game @ Tassie when they pumped Hawthorn. (I know, I know...easy enough to do)... ...Port have been good at home...although they have played the bottom 3... :\ Brisbane won here easily last year...in fact, won 3 of last 4... ...but these two have a remarkably similar form line this year... Both pump Melbourne at home (+17 shots to +15) Both beat Hawthorn away (30 points to 42, but edge Brisbane) Brisbane +4 shots @ Kangas, Port +5 Brisbane -15 I50's v. Saints, Port -16 (at home tho) Both beat Crows by 36 and 26 Both beat Ess at home, 46 and 41 Brisbane +1 I50 v. Richmond, Port +0 (home tho) Couldn't take Brisbane on the road as favs, and despite Port being under-rated, given they've played just 2 of their last 7 at home...I'm not too keen on taking them either. Now, one game I am interested in is the Tiges +25.5 (although I do admit to being semi-interested early last week too :unsure) Just not sure the Crows deserve to be big road favs...Haven't had more than +4 shots away from home this season (inc. @ Freo)...only beat Melbourne by 17 away... ...they are suddenly being talked up as contenders (yes you Mike Sheahan)...but have played just 2 of their last 8 away from home!! :eek Richmond forward line still going ok (1.89 shot last 5), but didn't get the chances with a horrible 27 I50's last week! Crows give up 48 on the road, so they should be able to get enough ball forward to keep it close A low scoring ground (this could be a REAL low scorer, but expecting a sub 165 total), but the lack of scoring also lends itself to close games. 7 of the last 10 games here (since 2006) have been under 24 points at the end. Richmond have travelled well this season, losing by 19 @ SCG (Mattner tackle game), 3 @ Port and won by 3 @ Freo. Taking the points here I feel. [Although, this HT spread thing certainly has it's merits ;) ]