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Golf: US Open


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have'nt been on for a while so thought i'd make my return with four crackers (i hope) my record in US open betting is good though. villegas 45/1. this lad is going to win a major no one who knows about golf disputes that, could it be this one well it's possible. has been chugging along nicely this year and i think this price has great value especially each way. tim clark 75/1. this is a massive price, far too big for a golfer of his ability, has a solid all round game and has a very respectable record in the US majors, definatley a each way here, for me . retief goosen 33/1. twice he has won this previously and both those victories were well deserved, especially the one where he went shot for shot with mickelson, on farcical greens ( think it was Shinnicock hills), So he knows how to play on the glass greens that the US open is famous for. has'nt been in contention in a major of late but his class is not in doubt and i think this price is real value. sergio garcia 33/1.i admit perhaps a wee bit heart ruling head here, but he HAS to win a major soon and the threeevents across the pond are the ones he should be in contention for. i'm going to finish with a mention of Paul Casey, i'm not a fan of him very arrogant, has a great love of himself, and i've noticed he is not a good chaser, i.e when he is in the lead of tournaments he has the game to stay there, however if he is chasing a leader he is very ordinary and i cant recall him winning from behind.

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Re: Us Open really enjoy this event, no playstation golf in this tourney ! very few break par due to the length of these courses for the US open, Bethpage Black New York is no different, a monster 7,500 yards is the 2nd longest on the major circuit, only Tiger shot under par here 7 years ago when winning it. It has 525 yard par 4 !! the longest in US golf history Tiger big favourite, and probably rightly so, hes the best on the planet - but my worry with Tiger is his driving accuracy, its very low down the table and unlike most tour tourneys theres little forgiveness for wayward driving in the US open, and IMO driving accuracy ( no primarily distance ) is the key. For that in mind my bet just now is David Toms for a top 5 finish @ 20/1 betfred - he is the top of the US driving accuracy for hitting fairways and playing very well right now, just won a tournament and in the top 3 as I type in the St Jude classic, I reckon if he wins this his price may drop a notch or 2 so going to take it just now. My other bet is Zach Johnson top 6 finish @ 14/1 with paddypower - Johnson always up there on fedex points and a previous major winner.

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Re: Golf: US Open 1st time on guys. im thinking anthony kim mayb a little big at 80/1. already won this year, top 20 last major, long enough off the tee, good enough putter. might not be accurate enough off the tee, but iv heard theyv widened some of the fairways this year. so ill b having a few quid each way on the man whos birthday it is on sunday! good luck!

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Re: Golf: US Open

1st time on guys. im thinking anthony kim mayb a little big at 80/1. already won this year' date=' top 20 last major, long enough off the tee, good enough putter. might not be accurate enough off the tee, but iv heard theyv widened some of the fairways this year. so ill b having a few quid each way on the man whos birthday it is on sunday! good luck![/quote'] Indeed they have widened the fairways this time john, which imo will give the big hitters an added advantage, to the one they already have around Bethpage this week. The reason Kim is that price though, is that as you probably know, his form is by his standards and what we saw last year is very poor. In saying that so was Cabrera's going into the Masters this year, so you never know and i wish you the best of luck.:ok Don't be shy to post any other fancy's for this week on in the future mate and :welcome to pl.
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Re: Golf: US Open

1st time on guys. im thinking anthony kim mayb a little big at 80/1. already won this year' date=' top 20 last major, long enough off the tee, good enough putter. might not be accurate enough off the tee, but iv heard theyv widened some of the fairways this year. so ill b having a few quid each way on the man whos birthday it is on sunday! good luck![/quote'] :welcome to PL John. Good luck with Kim this week mate :ok.
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Re: Golf: US Open Bethpage course is going to be a bit of a monster to negotiate and there has been a bit of a deluge of rain and more is expected over the course of the tournament. This 7,426-yard course will suit the long hitters of the game. Tiger as usual is silly odds and can't be a worthwhile proposition. Paddypower are offering the 1st 6 places at 1/4 odds! Predictions: Bubba Watson EW @151.00 Paddypower There is nobody on the tour who is a longer hitter than Bubba who currently ranks 1st in driving averaging 313.2. He has played in the US Open twice missing the cut last year when he was relatively out of form, however in his first attempt he finished 5th in 2007. He will line up in fairly good shape having recorded a 2nd at Quaill Hollow, 7th in The Buick, 17th at The Northern Trust and on his most recent outing he finished 23rd at The Memorial. Dustin Johnson EW @101.00 Paddypower For a guy who is on his 2nd year on the tour Dustin Johnson has made impressive progress this year having won the AT&T Pebble Beach, finishing 4th at The Byron Nelson, 10th at The Northern Trust, 11th at The Mercedes Benz and 14th on his most recent outing in last weeks Memorial. He ranks 3rd in driving stats averaging 307.9. Nick Watney EW @91.00 William Hill Watney has made great strides this year winning The Buick, finishing 2nd at The World Golf Championship, 4th at The Arnold Palmer, 19th in The Masters. In his most recent event last weeks Memorial he finished 14th. He ranks 5th in driving stats averaging 302.7. Phil Mickelson EW @23.00 William Hill 22/1 is just too big for lefty, although he comes here with a lot on his mind with his wife ill. However his wife is responding well to treatment so he can get on with his game and around this monster course you would have to say he is one of the likelier winners. He's in fine fettle considering having won The Northern Trust and The World Golf Championship and finishing 5th at The Masters, 9th at The Accenture World Matchplay. He finished 2nd here behind Tiger in 2002 and ranks 16th on driving stats averaging 298.4. :ok

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Re: Golf: US Open Im hoping to back tiger in running, cant bet at 2/1 Ive gone for Paul Casey @ 28/1 He has the game to win but will need a good start Villegas @ 65/1 for reasons stated above, gonna win one soon Brian Gay @ 80/1 In V good form, again see this as a good price with a view to trade it off Raphael Jacquelin @ 860/1 :loon consistant straight hitter which will obviously be important here and hoping he gets off to a flier with a view to laying off good luck all :hope

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Re: Golf: US Open Tiger Woods is the 2/1 favourite, that just sounds too short for my liking.

Course

BethpageStateNational Park and will be the longest ever US Open course. Certainly has some mighty long Par 4’s.

Hole 7– 525 yard par 4. The longest Par 4 in US Open history. The Driver will need to come out here, even then some players will not be reaching the green in regulation.

Hole 10 – 508 yard par 4. Narrow fairway with lots of bunkers to catch long or short tee shots. Then more bunkers guarding the front of green. Another stinker even for the Pro’s.

Hole 12 – 504 yard par 4. Tough hole. Safe drive leaves a very long shot to the two tier green. Try and cut the corner! Go on I dare ya.

Wetter weather than usual in the area raising suggestions that the course is greener and slower than ideal has lead to the widening of a few landing areas, or so the story goes.

Player Profile

Traditionally thought of the as the hardest set up of the Majors often throwing up a unusual or 1st time Major winner, but Woods has won 3 US Opens, including here in 2002.

For a winner I’m looking for Can clout the ball Strike a good long iron approach shot cope with wet weather can tough it out and take his medicine attitude can improvise.

Certainly Tiger fits most of those criteria. But looking at those qualities perhaps there’s a good chance of a European Tour hardened winner.

Interesting Players

Angel Cabrera - pressure doesn’t seem to bother him, Major winner who spanks the ball a mile. He rarely seems fazed by an odd dropped shot.

Sergio Garcia – Temperament is a little worry, but by the time he tees off he will know that dropped shots are inevitable. Has played in tough conditions, has imagination and is a good long iron player. Wet greens should level the putting.

Kenny Perry – Been in good form for an old un. But think he’s a fair weather, spin it to the hole kind of guy. Long walk, rain, wet greens and long iron after long iron wont suit.

Padraig Harrington – Seems to find too may double boggies these days. Not in form and even a visit back to Ireland didn’t perk him up.

Paul Casey – Has won in the US. Hits it long, consistent Iron player, hits greens in regulation. Confident, steady should like the course.

Tiger Woods, Hits the ball a mile, hangs in there even when things get tough, very rarely not got some chance on the Sunday. But I still want to lay him, I should lay him, he will trade at higher in running. I’m just not sure I’m brave enough.

Picks (all Betfair)

Sergio to beat Harrington (72 holes) @ 1.95 – 2pts

Vijay Singh to beat K Perry (Match, no tie) @ 2.12 – 2 pts

Outright Garcia @ 50 & Cabrera @ 75 both 1pt

And what the hell, Lay Tiger to win 6pts (12pt risk)

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Re: Golf: US Open 2 outrights for me. To be honest I can't see anyway Tiger can be beaten so I should really bet without Woods but such is the difference in prices in the two markets, I'll go with him in. 1pt ew J.Furyk to win US Open 25/1 Totesport (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Jim Furyk is a very solid golfer who is having an ultra consistent season. So far in 2009, he's racked up no less than 6 top 10's including top 10's in his last 3 tournaments, the latest of which being a 2nd at the Memorial a couple of weeks ago. His record in this event isn't too shabby either. He's won the tournament in the past and in 2006 and 2007 he was runner up in both years. His game seems to be set up well for this course as well. While he's not the longest hitter on tour, he's not the shortest either but one thing he is, is he's deadeye straight and he's a good putter - both essentials on this course. The lanky American's game is in top shape at the minute and at 25/1 he could be the one to stop Woods this week. 1pt ew K.Perry to win US Open 66/1 William Hill (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) Kenny Perry doesn't have a great record in this event but then again he didn't have a particularly good one at The Masters either but he should have won that tournament. He's the straightest hitter week in week out and is deceptively long off the tee. When the short stick is going, the Kentucky golfer is very dangerous. Perry is another one who is having a decent year with 6 top 10's himself, the highlight being his playoff win in the FBR Open. His form has tailed off a bit since the Masters but that could be expected given the manner he lost the tournament. Having said that he has all the credentials to be a force in this event and at 66/1 he looks worthy of an ew interest.

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Re: Golf: US Open And one more. 2pts ew I.Poulter Top Englishman 6/1 Sportingbet (1/4 1,2,3) Ian Poulter is another who is enjoying a decent year across the pond. His highlight was his 2nd to Henrik Stenson at the Players last month. He played solid golf that week and I expect a similar showing this week. His driver can be erratic but if that works this week there's very few who strike irons as well as Poults and even fewer who putt as well as him. Ian Poulter will win a major in his career, I've no doubt about that and I expect him to go well here. I'm not that convinced by the other Englishmen in the field. I'm not a particularly big Paul Casey fan and find it laughable he's no3 in the world. Donald isn't long enough which makes me believe the main danger could be Lee Westwood who probably has the best record in this event of the Englishmen. Saying that though, Poulter has upped his game since the Ryder Cup last year and I think he can lead the English contingent home this week.

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Re: Golf: US Open RORY MCILROY 70W BF/TOP5 13 BF Has had a couple of weeks off should come into this raring to go. He goes down well with the yanks so will be eager to impress. The long course will suit his game. Can't not back him at the price may even have a wee bet on him leading after the first round. Best of luck whoever you back:ok

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Re: Golf: US Open Really looking forward to the US open this year and with Tiger looking close to his best, i fancy him as strongly as i ever have around Bethpage Black this week but at that price i'l give it a miss. Anyway a lot has been made about the length of the course and how it will advantage the big hitters this week, but if you look at the top 25 in the betting, at least 20 of the players(the best in the world) hit it absolutely massive as most do these days, so i'm not sure what all the fuss is about tbh. No outright bets for me, but if pushed bar Tiger, i would think the winner would come from Furyk, Stricker,Ogilvie ,Mahan or Goosen. I'm also hoping for a big week from Paul Casey but history is certainly against him. Anyway on to my bets of which as there are a few,so i will post each market seperately over the next few hours. Top twenty finish J Furyk @ 10/11 tote One of the best and most consistent players in the world for well over a decade now, Furyk's got a very good open record over the years and is always there or thereabouts in the majors. A previous winner of this event, runner up two years ago and he's not finished outside the top 11 in the last four years. In great form this season and t2 a few weeks back tells me he's still in top form going into this week. S Stricker @ 11/8 tote Another player with a tremendous open record down the years, and is one of the world most in form players this season with an amazing six top tens icluding a win last month, and a 2nd and 3rd. A real solid all round player,He's in the form of his life and i fancy him to be in the mix again this week. H Mahan @ 5/2 tote A great young talent and a player we havn't seen the best of yet. I fancy this guy could make into the top ten in world rankings in years to come. A great ball striker he also hits it a long long way but with more accuracy than others. He tied for 6th round the monster that's Carnoustie two years ago and finished t10 at the masters this year, so i fancy this long course will suit him. He's finished in the top twenty in the last two US opens, and with a very impresive showing at the Ryder cup last year i believe he's now a better player overall, and with his recent good showing a few weeks back, not only do i think he'll go well, i think he's good value this week.

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Re: Golf: US Open TOP GB & IRE G Mcdowell ew @ 14/1 betfred first 3 1/4 I poulter ew @ 9/1 will hill first 3 1/4 With serious question marks over Harrington and Westwoods form, Donald's lack of lenth/not nearly at his best since his injury, and this possisbly being a bit to soon for young Mcilroy and Ross Fisher imo Mcdowell and Poulter are the stand out value bets in this market. Even if there wasnt so many question marks about the players mentioned, Poulter and Mcdowell would still have a great chance in this market in their own right. Both are seriously good long ball strikers and have the game to do well at this course. These guys are have been around the block a few times now and are coming into their prime, and with them both seriously imposing themselves across the pond this year, and in great form, they can hopefully lead the British home this week. Ross Fisher has been tempting me all week at a standout 25/1 with coral, as he has the game imo, but with his inexperience in a us open and majors, its a tough ask and i think i'l just leave him this week. I hope i don't regret it.

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Re: Golf: US Open I’m certainly letting Tiger past at his current odds. Sure he was very impressive in his last round and with it his win but that was only his second win since his return and both of those have been very narrow wins which indicates there might not be as much between himself and the field as one might think. Also so far since his return in the really big events, WGC, players and masters he has coem up short and he is not for me at his current price. Four e.w selections for me, some 5 places some 6. Also going for some respective top special markets to accompany the selections. My only concern for some of the shorter hitters I have picked is possible future storms this week which could make this course even longer but still going for them. 36 pts staked on outrights. Will post some three balls for the opening day up next: Z.Johnson 70/1 wh 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 5 places) and top American without Woods 20/1 sj 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) Zach Johnson has a poor US Open record and I find that pretty surprising in truth. He is the type of player I could see doing well in US Open’s given his accuracy, solid iron play and unique but effective enough putting style. However it hasn’t happened for him in US Open’s in the past. Still he could change that this week. Despite not being the longest hitter of all time, his accuracy will be crucial around here as will his good in 2009. After a poor year last year he has won twice this year, had a third and a couple of other top 10s. Not many have a better record and Zach could have a really solid week. H.Stenson 66/1 lad 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 5 places) and top European 12/1 betfr 3 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) Stenson comes into this on the back of 3 m/c, two of which were in Europe and some which included some horrific rounds. However the week before he played the best round of the year and probably the best round of golf all year with a vintage display to win the ‘fifth major,’ the players and do so in style. After that round it would have been extremely difficult to think that he could have been 66/1 for this. That price is massive if on anything like the form he demonstrated at sawgrass and also on a couple of other occasions this year shown with three other top 3s. Sure he hasn’t followed it up or have a great US Open record but I still think he has been badly underestimated by the bookies, one good round and it could all click again. T.Clark 90/1 wh 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 5 places) and top ROW 18/1 wh 3 pts e.w (1/5 odds 4 places) Clark is a steady golfer who should enjoy the challenges of a US Open as ended he has done in the past with T3 to his name in the past. He isn’t long but he hits an awful lot of fairways which is a trademark of players who generally do well in US Open’s. Also he is another player who is in good form in 2009. He probably should have won two weeks ago and ended up settling for second but before that he has had a fifth and also five top 13 finishes this year so he is consistently playing well. H.Mahan 66/1 sj 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 6 places) and top American without Woods 25/1 wh 2 pts e.w (1/4 odds 4 places) Hunter Mahan proved he is a golfer who seems to rise to the big occasions in the Ryder Cup last year and whilst he has been lacklustre since, he has been solid enough and could fire this week. Looking at his record he hasn’t missed one cut since the PGA last year and whilst it is disappointing he hasn’t really contended more since then, he has had the odd solid week. He has had three top 11s this year and encouragingly showed a bit of form last event for him at the memorial. Again he is fairly consistent golfer, solid ball striker and in particular a good iron player. Sometimes his putting can let him down but he could be one to watch this week.

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Re: Golf: US Open Ra1nmaker makes a few good points in his profile of what the winner needs to be. Definetly don't want anyone who has the dummy on a piece of string and there is a few I would avoid on that score. Not quite sure if young Mc Ilroy will keep his in over the four days, he has an excuse as he is only a kid, but the question of temprement hangs over several experienced pros. Big Phil has great control over his emotions and really has the bit between his teeth at the moment. If there was one golfer I would follow round the course it would have to be Mickleson, most entertaining player on the planet and a great EW shout @ 22/1. I think in the current cicumstances he will have huge support from the crowd, to which he usuall reacts. Broonboys makes a few juicy selections and I think he could be in the money. On one however I would advise caution and that one is Graham Mc Dowell. Mc Dowell would be known in Belfast as a "Raker", a "Messer" etc, in other words not the most mature or reliable of pros. Doubtless talent but if you compare his "perfect day" profile against Tiger Woods, then you may find the answers to his inconsistency. Good Luck all.

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Re: Golf: US Open

Ra1nmaker makes a few good points in his profile of what the winner needs to be. Definetly don't want anyone who has the dummy on a piece of string and there is a few I would avoid on that score. Not quite sure if young Mc Ilroy will keep his in over the four days, he has an excuse as he is only a kid, but the question of temprement hangs over several experienced pros. Big Phil has great control over his emotions and really has the bit between his teeth at the moment. If there was one golfer I would follow round the course it would have to be Mickleson, most entertaining player on the planet and a great EW shout @ 22/1. I think in the current cicumstances he will have huge support from the crowd, to which he usuall reacts. Broonboys makes a few juicy selections and I think he could be in the money. On one however I would advise caution and that one is Graham Mc Dowell. Mc Dowell would be known in Belfast as a "Raker", a "Messer" etc, in other words not the most mature or reliable of pros. Doubtless talent but if you compare his "perfect day" profile against Tiger Woods, then you may find the answers to his inconsistency. Good Luck all.
Does he/or did he have a bit of reputation back home in NI mate?, as i thought he had a great temperament tbh. Ive watched a few interviews with McDowell over the last year to 18 months, and he always mentions how he's matured so much, and has never been so content and confident about his game, especially with the great team he has around him. Lets not forget, he's been in the top twenty in the last 3 majors around 3 very different tracksand comes in here in great form. Good luck if you have a bet.:)
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Re: Golf: US Open I agree with you Broon. And in the Ryder Cup where the pressure is at it's most intense he seemed to be completely fine emotionally. I've watched him around Woburn before in the past having backed him that week and he's looked ok to me on the golf course. Anything he may have shown in the past must've been his competitive streak I'm sure. My only problem with him this week is I question if he has the length to tame the course.

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Re: Golf: US Open Right just a bit of reasoning to my 3 matchbets which i posted earlier, and another to add aswell. Poulter to bt Westwood @4/5 hills Basically looking to take Westwood on this week as he is seriously struggling to find any form this season, and around bethpage he could well struggle again this week. Iv'e already mentioned Poulter could go well this week, and with a very impressive 7 t20's from 10 tournaments in America this year, he's the clear form pick and i'm happy to take the odds on. Mahan to beat Gay @10/11 Ladbrokes Already mentioned i fancy Mahan to go well here, but this is all about taking on the red hot Brian Gay. It may be a dangerous choice but i think he could struggle around bethpage, simply because he it's it way way too short, too really compete at the business end in this tournament imo. Way below average in the driving distance stats, he's going to be faced with hitting lets say 3 and 4 irons into greens compared to others hitting 7 and 8 irons.which is obviously a big disadvantage. He's also missed 5 out of 5 us open cuts, although to be fair he hasn't played in one since 2004, and he's a better player than back then. Still think he'll struggle, and it's the very talented Mahan for me here. Harrington to bt Stenson @5/6 Bet 365 Well i'm not sure what's went so drastically wrong with the Swede's game recently. Not only has he missed the last 3 cuts, he's missed them spectacularly with some shocking scores, and for that reason you would be crazy to back him with any confidence or at all, and it would be no surprise to me to see him miss another cut around the unforgiving Bethpage this week. Harrington isn't in good form either, but his whole game/schedule revolves around hopefully peaking at the right time for the four majors, and although i very much doubt he will win this week,m i still fancy him to take care of Stenson who has also missed the cut, in the last two us opens. Cink to bt Kim @ 2.00 betfair Kim's having a poor season, and with him being so wild off the tee, only hitting 50% of fairways, he another player who i think will seriously struggle this week, unless he finds a bit more accuracy from the tee. Cink has had a pretty average season too, but a t22 and a t8 in his last two tournaments(the latter being at the challenging memorial) tells me he's playing his best golf for months. He's also a long straight hitter, and his game should be well suited to Bethpage Black. Cink has a good record over the years at the us open, and with him being the much more steady player of the two which is what were looking for, and being in better form, the evs at betfair(before com) is too big a price and i'm on. Good luck everyone.

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Re: Golf: US Open

I agree with you Broon. And in the Ryder Cup where the pressure is at it's most intense he seemed to be completely fine emotionally. I've watched him around Woburn before in the past having backed him that week and he's looked ok to me on the golf course. Anything he may have shown in the past must've been his competitive streak I'm sure. My only problem with him this week is I question if he has the length to tame the course.
Aye kev, ive never seen anthing on the course from him in the last three or four years, to suggest there's anything wrong with the metal side of his game. As you mention, maybe it's just his competetive streak, or maybe in his amatuer/early pro days he had a bit of a problem, but if he did ,i think they've certainly been ironed out now. good luck with your bets.
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Re: Golf: US Open Hi Broon, see Mc Dowell isn't doing to bad at the moment, play abandonded for the day. He did have a reputation and it wasn't unfounded. Maybe he is starting to wise up a bit. A couple of years he turned up at Belfast airport and was picked up by his mate in an MG, his mate had brought someone along for the ride, so Mc Dowell lays across the back of the two seats in the MG, the driver takes off down the road, giving it some and puts the motor through a major roundabout, Mc Dowell is injured and is out for a couple of months. If he has put these days behind him, he is more than a betting proposition. I backed him for first round leader in the Irish open this year @ 40/1, he shot 7 over on the first day, went out and shot a 61 on the second day and then retired from the tournament. Anyway good luck with your bet, shame today was rained off.

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Re: Golf: US Open

Hi Broon' date=' see Mc Dowell isn't doing to bad at the moment, play abandonded for the day. He did have a reputation and it wasn't unfounded. Maybe he is starting to wise up a bit. A couple of years he turned up at Belfast airport and was picked up by his mate in an MG, his mate had brought someone along for the ride, so Mc Dowell lays across the back of the two seats in the MG, the driver takes off down the road, giving it some and puts the motor through a major roundabout, Mc Dowell is injured and is out for a couple of months. If he has put these days behind him, he is more than a betting proposition. I backed him for first round leader in the Irish open this year @ 40/1, he shot 7 over on the first day, went out and shot a 61 on the second day and then retired from the tournament. Anyway good luck with your bet, shame today was rained off.[/quote'] Cheers Jackie, i had a feeling you may have known something some of us didn't, but from what you say i don't think we have anything to worry about mate, with his bad boy days probably behind him;) As you say, its a shame the first day has been suspended as i was really looking forward to watching a bit of golf tonight, and seeing what this course is really all about. Here's hoping the rain calms down a bit for tomorrow, and the rest of the week. :hope
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