Carlisle 01/06/09

[Jono333]

3:15 Carlisle 2 horses I like in this race: Off Chance and Musical Maze. Off Chance ran a nice race LTO in a class 4 when finishing 7th. It made impressive late headway and it was clearly screaming out for a drop in trip after that race where it has already shown early promise. Not only has it been dropped in trip, it has also dropped 2 lbs in the handicap for some reason and enters a class 5 race tomorrow. Trainer and jockey in very good form and it looks like it has a very decent chance. 2/1 Musical Maze looks a strange selection considering its last two runs. However it has shown promise as a two year old and looks set to go close in the race. Off quite a good mark and forgiving its last two runs because of the ground it should run a decent race back on the faster ground. Trainer is in brilliant form. Seems a good E/W bet for me currently at 9/1 16:45 Carlisle Two again I like here, Casino Night and Avontuur. Casino Night looks good to go close. Made nice headway LTO at Beverly to finish fourth after being badly held up. It has raced in better races than this class 5 race (which is pretty poor) and should go close at around 7/1 at the moment. Avontuur looks like the underdog of the race. Hasn't really done much on its last couple of outings but is a C/D winner on this ground. Its last outing was asking for a drop in trip and back to 6f should see this going close. It has been put down in the handicap by a couple of pounds and back on the turf it should relish the ground. The stable are in eye catching and impressive form.

[fintron]

Re: Carlisle 01/06/09 I agree with you Jono in the 3.15 3.15 Carlisle Off Chance deserves another chance here and although Tim Easterby's filly disappointed in a class 4 handicap at the Dante meeting, she remains open to improvement after just the three starts. I actually thought she had half a stone in hand on the handicapper after her Ripon romp, as she made smooth headway that day in April and quickened to lead inside the final furlong in the manner of, in my opinion, a filly that is better than an official rating of 67. It is worth nothing that her win came on good to firm ground and her 7th of 12 at York came on soft ground, so not only could her last run be excused on the grounds of class (raced in class 4 as opposed to class 5 today) it may have been that she would have preferred the ground on top. The fact the handicapper has eased her mark two pounds for this is an added bonus, as I would have personally been interested in this one at the start of her handicap career even if she had been running off 10 lb higher.