Newmarket 22/05

[RussP]

5.15 Newmarket Expecting to see 11 runners for this Class 5, 1m handicap at HQ. Looking at these individually, I'm opposing Indian Skipper as it is an example of a horse raised in mark without winning. Up 2lb for a 2L 2nd lto, will need to step up and I think this mark is too high. Similar comments apply to Driven, raised in mark for a 2nd lto but the horse is on the upgrade and probably justifies favouritism. However, the rise in weights makes it an opposable fav at around 11/4. Grand Vizier has claims if fully wound up ans won first time up last term but 6/1 RPF is plenty short enough after 7 months off. Sonny Parkin is better on the July course, makes its seasonal reappearance and doesn't look particularly well handicapped. Thunder Gorge may be better on an easier surface and has a poor strike rate, shown nothing so far this term either. Charlevoix won lto and has a great record on quick ground so is a real danger but again, I'd prefer to seek out some EW value, it certainly looks one for the placepot. Bahiano also has claims off this mark but suggestion the downgrade has firmly kicked in and I think price will be a little prohibitive with Ryan Moore on board. Steig is poorly handicapped and will struggle here whilst the other 2 looks outclassed. This leaves us with one at a very tempting double figure price in: Marning Star (RPF 12/1) - Consistent type and still quite lightly raced so I think there is improvement to be had from this horse. Seems to have ideal conditions for the race with class, mark, trip and going all looking ideal for the first time in quite a while. Since winning in a Class 4 at Haydock last summer off a 4lb higher mark, has failed to get its head in front but with valid excuses. Finished 3rd nto off 79 (8lb higher than today) but 3 of the 6 went off at a furious pace and it was almost certain something from behind would take the event, and followed that up with a poor run off the same mark when the ground was heavy and clearly didn't suit. Came back in Jan and had 2 runs on the AW followed by a run on turf where, each time, the trip was too far and the horse didn't get home. Has been dropped a grade as well as 4lb for the run and, with a 2f less trip also strongly in its favour, this is no way at 12/1 shot in my eyes.

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Newmarket 22/05 pretty unoriginal....,but TRYST could be far better than a 87 rated handicapper. STOUTEY excells in improving older horses,this 7f handicap is full of old exposed types,with TRYST being the glaring exception!!!,a mark of 87 on what it has achieved in 2 runs so far seems fair enough,but i will be staggered if this 4yo horse doesnt have bundles of improvement to come!!! the 15/8 with PADDY POWER wont last long!!!!:ok