AFL Round 9

[Crouch Potato]

Will normal service resume this week? Couple of early sighters for me are the Adelaide Games. Despite some sub-par performances of late not sure the Power should be as under-valued in the betting as they are. Given the way the Swans play at home I don't forsee them getting hammered and have a very strong value feel for Port 1-24 @ 4.50. Conversely to Port, I feel that Carlton are perhaps being a bit over-rated after one good win. They've not been impressive before that and have lost 7 of their past 9 clashes v Crows at AAMI. Both wins were by just 4pts. Unsure of Crows injury status but feel that due to their style of play they are unlikely to win big. Crows 1-24 resonates nicely @ 4.25. Patful and Merrett out for the Lions. Saints defence has been great and the Lions are the most 2 B-mensional attack in the game. (That pun was rather poor on second look :\). Expecting Brown and Bradshaw to be well controlled with the Lions no answers in defence (Where Bradshaw will likely find himself by 3/4 time). Saints short at 1.17, but I have big trouble seeing how the Saints lose this game any more than 1 in 20. Beyond that feeling not so strong, think that the Essendon Richmond game might be a U15.5'er, but my knowledge of AFL greatly diminishes when we're talking about these types of teams. Have a feeling for Geelong 20-39 but can't really rationalise it in a manner that I like.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 9 Agree with a lot of that Oscar...which is a bad sign for us early! Not on the same page with the Crows tho...I think Carlton win this game pretty handily (well, handily enough!) and I'll be on -7.5 Have lost their last 5 at home!...all by 26 or more, and I don't think the Doggies are going any better than Carlton atm. Haven't kicked more than 12 goals in their last 4 games and I suspect they'll struggle again here against a surprisingly solid Carlton D. Blues' scoring is a slight concern, but Adelaide defense has been horrible all year...and now their midfield has deserted them, going 43-61 I50's to Dogs and 46-58 last week. Like I said, the Doggies hadn't won there for a bloody long time either and I don't think Carlton are any worse. No Murphy means a certain Geelong win...even with Aker playing 300. Not sure about the h'cap tho...Geelong have had a great month, but played some poor teams. First game for Cats indoors this season where they've won their last 10 by an av. of nearly 70 points and covered the spread 9 times... Snooze-fest @ the Dome on Saturday...no idea who will win, but I'm guessing whoever does won't kick 15 goals ;) Happy that West Coast will do enough at home to win. Have been very unlucky to win just 1 of their last 4...Pies likely to get some scoring power back this week, but Eagles have allowed Richmond/Ess...thinking the slightly more wimpy 24.5 myself. :ok Tigers been pretty good last 4, Bomber defense continues to impress. Should be a close one. (Tiges have to be some value @ 2.40ish :\ ) Same line of thinking @ Sydney. Should be a close game. Port's D sucks on the road, would scare me off backing them specifically... ...of course, havg said that the Swans have lost their way. Av. just 45.8 I50's in their last 5 games (equal lowest with North), so Port just may ave too much firepower to negate any leaks at the other end. St. Kilda are definates...have no problem at all with taking 1.15. My numbers suggest Saints will have at least 10 more shots...5.5 would barely cover, the way things are going for us all here it's more likely to be 2.8. :eyes You'd have to think Hawthorn would be too strong for a slightly improving Melbourne, but not interested in taking 1.20 about a team who have only really 'deserved' to have won 2 games so far (13th and 14th on the ladder...which, I guess means they should beat 16th too!...but still not interested! :lol )