Drawing to Conclusions (Chester)

[billy the punter]

From my blog... Drawing to Conclusions Much is made of the draw at Chester, especially over shorter distances in double-figure fields. Just how suicidal is it to back horses drawn high in these races? How much is myth and how much is reality? Below I have singled out the four races that fit the bill from the spring meeting. Race 1 5f Class 2 Handicap on day one Looking at the past 11 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners; 7-2-8 (14) 6-7-4 (13) 2-4-8 (15) 6-1-4 (14) 4-2-1 (14) 1-5-6 (14) 3-1-5 (16) 8-2-5 (12) 6-4-1 (12) 6-1-2 (10) 4-2-3 (8) Winners: 36% drawn low, 64% drawn middle, 0% drawn high Placed: 64% drawn low, 36% drawn middle, 0% drawn high ------------ Race 2 6f Class 3 Handicap (3yo) on day two Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners; 2-11-3 (12) 6-8-1 (10) 9-4-6 (10) 13-12-7 (14) 1-5-6 (14) 1-4-6 (14) 2-6-8 (15) 12-9-16 (16) 6-1-5 (16) 9-11-3 (15) Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high Placed : 40% low, 33% middle, 27% high ------------ Race 3 7f Class 2 Handicap on day three Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners; 6-4-1 (11) 5-6-3 (12) 10-4-8 (9) 13-5-9 (18) 1-4-3 (18) 4-3-2 (16) 2-14-3 (17) 16-6-5 (18) 3-1-13 (17) 7-5-4 (17) Winners : 40% low, 30% middle, 30% high Placed : 60% low, 20% middle, 20% low ------------ Race 4 5f Class 2 Handicap (3yo) on day three Looking at the past 10 runnings of this sprint, here are where the 1-2-3 were drawn followed by the amount of runners; 7-3-9 (8) 3-6-1 (8) 1-5-9 (12) 4-6-2 (10) 7-8-14 (15) 8-1-6 (15) 11-1-5 (10) 1-7-4 (14) 4-1-5 (12) 5-2-3 (12) Winners : 50% low, 30% middle, 20% high Placed : 47% low, 37% middle, 17% high If we ignore those races with less runners (10 or less) ... Winners : 50% low, 50% middle, 0% high Placed : 44% low, 44% middle, 11% high ------------ On races 2 and 3 we see that highs do seem to be at a slight disadvantage. Although this should be factored in when deciphering a race, the disadvantage isn't great enough to discount a horse on draw alone. Races 1 and 4 is where the bias really kicks in. Both races are over the minimum trip of 5f and the speed the runners hit the first bend makes it extremely difficult for those drawn high. In the all-age handicap on day one (Race 1), no horse in the high third of the draw has even made the frame. Interestingly, middle drawn horses have a better win record than lows, perhaps suggesting that if breaks are missed on the inside it can be difficult to get into a winning position thereafter. It's a similar story with the 3y0 handicap on the final day (Race 4) , especially when looking at those races with 12 or more runners. Those drawn in the lower two thirds of the draw performing well, accounting for 89% of all horses placed. The bias is slightly stronger for Race 1, maybe due to the speed these seasoned handicappers leave the gates and hit the first bend, as opposed to the 3yos in Race 4. Without doubt it is a disadvantage to be drawn high in most races at Chester, although it's possible to overcome this with class or a good ride, however in big fields over 5f, there is an argument (at least) for ignoring horses on draw alone. Be lucky.

[stewartd14]

Re: Drawing to Conclusions (Chester) Interesting read as always Billy.