Kempton 4/5/09

[fintron]

2.30 Kempton The Williamhill.com Can Shearer Save Newcastle Handicap looks a nice little handicap and even after the withdrawl of two runners, the presence of Lenny Bee, Desert Strike, Cecily and Bajan Tryst make for a fascinating race. Bajan Tryst is the one that I like the most, and I'll take him to continue his improvement for Kevin Ryan. I signed up to the Hambleton newsletter on Ryan's website as he is one of my favourite trainers, and in their last edition there was an interview with the yard's 7 lb claiming jockey, Amy Ryan, who said this fellow was the horse she was most looking forward to seeing this season. After reportedly bulking out well during his break, he came back in good shape when winning a Lingfield maiden with ease 41 days ago. He was bought for 60,000 guineas as a two year old and had some decent juvenile form, often shaping as if a drop back to the minimum trip would be ideal. His last run was the first time he had tackled five furlongs, and he got the job done well. The handicapper has slapped an official rating of 78 on his head and this Speightstown colt, the least exposed runner in the field, looks as if he can continue to pay his way this season. On his debut in a Ripon nursery when second he had Mark Johnston's Holberg behind, that rival has been winning off 85 in handicaps, and the third, Prime Mood, was rated 83 when hacking up in a Newcastle maiden. The likes of Shaker Style and Embasy Crag, well back in the field, have also scored since going handicapping, albeit in lesser races off lower marks, but at least they haven't proven complete duds. You could look at things from a pace angle here and say the rejuvenated Cecily (who has only been raised a couple of pounds for a nice win last time out) may contest the lead, but I think Bajan Tryst, as he did during his two year old campaign, may track the leader and look to make his move late on. He had Lenny Bee comfortably behind last time out and although that rival runs off a two pound lower mark here, I think that Bajan Tryst can still confirm that form off these revised weights, and if anything, see Lenny Bee's last time out win as another boost for the chances of Bajan Tryst. Desert Strike is also unexposed and didn't enjoy a clear passage last time out when dead heating with Lady Vivien at Great Leighs. However, he hasn't raced for 111 days and I think Bajan Tryst is better treated off 78, as well as holding a slight fitness advantage. 9/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Kempton 4/5/09 3.30 Invisible Man 13/8 sj bog 10 pts I wonder of this one can finally get off the mark. So far he has been expensive to follow after twice losing when odds but in fairness it was only his odds that suggested he ran below par. Certainly his second run wasnt that bad at hq, the winner won easy once again at the weekend and stablemate euston square ran well in defeat too on fri. IM stayed on well that day under a quiet ride in truth and the step up to a mile should suit. He also returns to the a.w today which should be fine and whilst stall no.1 isnt ideal and there are some promising newcomers, Invisible Man could get off the mark today.