Newcastle - 27/4/09

[fintron]

4.20 Newcastle A tough looking handicap here but I think Barney McGrew could run a race. Michael Dods' gelding is capable of going well at this level and showed himself to be a competitive sprint handicapper last season with several strong runs, notably a 4th to Knot in Wood in the Scottish Stewards Cup (Hamilton), a second to Chief Editor at Haydock and a second to Invincible Force at Doncaster on his final run of the season. He was also a course and distance winner, albeit in a lower grade, last May. He runs off a mark of 95 tomorrow, which is 5 lbs higher than his last win which was that CD run, but he has placed form off 3 lb lower to suggest he is still handicapped to have a chance. With the likes of Thebes and Tamagin in the field here he should get the race run to suit, and he will strip fitter for his last run at Doncaster, when a respectable fifth behind the hugely progressive Palace Moon. A couple of those were behind that day, whilst Advanced boosted the form with a win at Pontefract last week. 6/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

[RussP]

Re: Newcastle - 27/4/09 4.20 Newcastle Without doubt, the best race on the card. An 11 runner Class 2 handicap over the straight 6f. It seems likely that there will be a strong pace here so I think the hold up horses could hold sway here. Ultimately, this means I'm against some of the likelier types. Thebes, who is also 6lb above its highest winning mark, falls into this category as does Tamagin (9lb above HWR) and Captain Dunne. I'm also passing over Rising Shadow and Celtic Sultan who both make their seasonal reappearance as well as Valery Borzoc, off for almost 3 months. Of the others, Capricorn Run is probably better on the AW whilst Machinist, a grand old servant, may be getting long in the tooth now. A shortlist of 3 remains and all of them can be given chances. However, in the quest to isolate a selection, Excusez Moi is crossed out as it may need a longer trip and a slight easing in class whilst Barney McGrew is only opposed due to the tight looking price. This leaves us with the bottom one: Sunrise Safari (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Stable and jockey in top form, and this horse looks capable of adding to their run. Races from the foot of the handicap and has not been in great form last term but this race is well within its limits. Down to a winning mark of just 85 today, not raced off this low for almost 2 years when it won at Doncaster. Loves to come off a fast pace which it will get here and has a nice draw providing the breaks come. Recent form not so great but last twice has had apprentice on and with the visor left off. Visor is now back on and dropped further 3lb in the weights for this run. All its wins have come with the visor on so the return to headgear sure to suit. Has form in this grade but may be better in Class 3, whilst is effective over both 5f and 6f. This horse has contested some very competitive heats too, worth decent prize money. If you like at its form in the last 2 years when the prize money has been under £20K (as today), with visor fitted, it reads 1-4-1-3-1-3. Its form over the same period without visor and/or races over £20K reads 4-12-4-4-7-8-15-11-13-10-15. Admittedly, needs things to drop right but I think this might just be the time to get its career back on track. Nice EW bet against a decent set of handicappers, most of which have questions to answer.