Kempton (eve) 17/4/09

[fintron]

7.10 Good luck for White Moss Bill :ok 8.50 I nearly spat my tea all over the screen when I saw Espy was 22/1 for this. Admittedly, he did flop at Bath last time out and he does race from just out of the handicap here, but I think he is overpriced off the back of just one bad run. Last season he was most progressive, and although he has never won in this grade, he won handicaps off 71 and 77. He is rated 79 for this and although 2 lbs out of the handicap, effectively making that 81, David Probert takes off a useful three to, IMO, ensure he races from within the handicap proper. I backed him last time out at Bath and he looked short of fitness to me. He dwelt leaving the stalls, which wasn't a great help considering he was at the back of the field in a race run at a crawl, and when Baker did manoevre him out wide to try go on and win the race he found little. It may be that the handicapper has nailed him, but it may also be that he needed that run as it was his first run since May 2008. This looks a nice little race, with Al Gillani and Mullein also in fine form and open to more improvement, but at the price I'm having a little on Espy, and even if he fails to win today, I think he still has a race in him, perhaps dropped in grade next time out. 22/1 VC Bet, 0.25 pt

[billy the punter]

Re: Kempton (eve) 17/4/09 Thanks mate, her race is a bit competitive, and like I said she is coming back after a little set back so hopeful of a better run.