Horrible Spot

[billy the punter]

Haven't been in this section for a while as, due to the busy racing schedule, it's been over a month since I've seen a card. As it was your typical boring Good Friday I made a little comeback. Now most of the time I'm happy with my decisions. Even when they turn out to be incorrect, I can at least justify them (usually). However every now and again I find myself unsure of a play I've made. Unsurprisingly it usually comes when holding JJ, QQ or AK - less so AK as I'm happy with regards to how tight I play that hand. One such instance occured in the tourn I played tonight. 99% sure there were 18 left (9 paid).... ***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 507656170 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $55 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee, Level:11 Blinds(250/500-50 ante) - Friday, April 10, 21:40:07 GMT 2009 $7,000 Guaranteed NLH Deep Stack #234106 Table 1 9-max (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of active players : 9 Seat 1: freesole ( 9,695.50 ) Seat 2: ahbibi87 ( 24,181 ) Seat 3: subman ( 52,207.36 ) Seat 4: swansen ( 38,014.81 ) Seat 5: bethammer ( 21,698 ) Seat 6: unlckey5 ( 39,406 ) Seat 7: Harold Boom ( 28,154.50 ) Seat 8: BENALMADENA ( 23,341.50 ) Seat 9: Badger6666 ( 28,681.50 ) Tourney Level:11 Blinds(250/500-50 ante) freesole posts ante [50] BENALMADENA posts ante [50] unlckey5 posts ante [50] Harold Boom posts ante [50] bethammer posts ante [50] Badger6666 posts ante [50] swansen posts ante [50] subman posts ante [50] ahbibi87 posts ante [50] ahbibi87 posts small blind [250] subman posts big blind [500] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Harold Boom [ Qd, Qh ] swansen folds bethammer raises to [1,600] unlckey5 folds Harold Boom calls [1,600] BENALMADENA goes all-in BENALMADENA raises to [23,291.50] Badger6666 folds freesole folds ahbibi87 folds subman folds bethammer folds I've deleted the bottom for the time being, call or fold? Extra info - played BENALMADENA many times, he is a fair player, rails a lot too, non-believer with regard to my bets. He respects bethammer. He wouldn't necessarily be scared of my call as he would put me on any number of hands, he thinks I'm aggressive and I think he thought I was calling, getting protection from the early raiser, with a busting hand.

[GaF]

Re: Horrible Spot It's a massive overbet - for most players this means a scared bet and not AA or KK. Most likely he has AK, but maybe also something like JJ

[JulioArca]

Re: Horrible Spot It looks like an AK type shove to me - dont think I would shove with AA or KK in this spot. Question is do you feel lucky? Racing for your tournament life - I think you folded.

[happyhornet]

Re: Horrible Spot I would fold. I agree that it appears to not be AA or KK because of the massive overbet, but I have seen a lot of these plays with Aces. Unless it a complete bluff, I would guess you are racing at best, and there is no need in this situation IMO.

[SteveO]

Re: Horrible Spot You folded Bill. You're not gonna put another 40+bbs in with QQ hoping he has an underpair or AQ- and you don't really wanna race against AK at this stage. Could he be doing it with KK-AA? I have done similar moves in the past agaist opponents who overvalue their hands and usually get outdrawn lol.

[Blatch]

Re: Horrible Spot Personally I would fold in this spot. You only have 1600 in this spot and he could easily have KK or AA. Most people would expect someone to re rise to around 7500-8000 with KK or AA but this would be far too obvious and anything else is overly comitting himself so he may as well shove here with the top two hands to hope to digguise it. The other very obvious hand is AK which again I wouldnt want to be racing just yet. I would imagine his range would be AA, KK, AK or possibly QQ with the last very unlikely.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Horrible Spot Wow....tough spot and one which I think you can realistically play either way, certainly justify either a call or a fold. Looking at the fold option first. This obviously just comes down to whether you want to race or not. The most obvious hand he can have is AK. I agree with most on here that he is unlileky to have KK or AA, unless he has previous of doing this. Not really enough in the middle to justify doing this unless he thinks you'll call. After all he only has 23,000 chips and you'd think he would be trying to maximise with either of those starting hands. Now onto the call option. The first thing to consider in my mind is that if you are wrong and lose this hand you'll still have approx 5,000 chips which is around 10bb. Not a total wipeout. Furthermore THIS is a real opportunity to put yourself in an extremley strong position to go really really deep and you have the 3rd best starting hand. In addition there's a chance that BETHAMMER could be playing a weakish ace such as A-JS, A-10s,A-9s - if he is then your odds are dramatically improved to make the call. I said above that the most obvious hand he will have is AK if you want to fold but that isn't to say that he does have that. He has 23k in chips which is probably below average but hardly critical, and if he is a half decent player then he knows he can get you off a huge numebr of hands with an aggressive bet, including QQ!! If he it gets though then he pads his stack by a further 4k, around 20% of his current stack. My guess is that he had any pocket pair from 5's - jj or AK and with that in mind I'd have been calling. This is a great opportunity to become one of the chip leaders and set yourself up for a major score, epsecially someone of your ability and game. And if you are wrong, well you can always launch a comeback...:-)

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Horrible Spot hmmm yeah it's a tricky one this but i think i'd have to fold:unsure its possible he might have aa kk and likely he may have ak,on the other hand he could have 10s or js or maybe a squeeze with air(unlikely i think as its a dangerous bet)so your about evens to be ahead /behind.with that deep a stack i think i'd wait for a bit of a better situation to get money in:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: Horrible Spot Well, as many suggested, I did fold. To be honest I don't necessarily agree with the majority opinion that it's unlikely to be AA or KK. I think AA or KK is a big possibility as some have said. BENALMEDENA is a decent player, and decent players will sometimes overbet with AA or KK (especially when there is history between the players involved) - it is a great way to disguise. So, IMO has either JJ, QQ (very unlikely), KK, AA, AK, I'm certain the player in question would not be making this move with anything less. Although he isn't necessarily worried about my flat call, he respects the original raiser, another thing I took into consideration. I'm only in decent shape against JJ. After the action, bethammer declared he had folded JJ - I think jacks was the least likely hand (from the range) that BENALMEDENA would be be reraising with anyway. I suppose looking back in this instance it was an easy decision. But another time it may be less straightforward? Although I always stand by belief that I need to get myself into a position that allows me to "play" my way to a result, I worry I may be too tight occasionally at this time of a tournament. That said, calling when 'dead', or close to, when in winnable position is a cardinal sin. Further proof perhaps that each hand should be judge on it's merits. Cheers guys. :ok

[ProJordonTyler]

Re: Horrible Spot Great great fold. Very impressed by your ability to get away from the hand.

[george2loose]

Re: Horrible Spot WOW- I think his range is way wider than just AA, KK, AK. Did u flat to disguise your hand? Cos it worked! I'd snap high five fist pump call with one hand in the air

[billy the punter]

Re: Horrible Spot

WOW- I think his range is way wider than just AA' date=' KK, AK. Did u flat to disguise your hand? Cos it worked! I'd snap high five fist pump call with one hand in the air[/quote'] Good luck. ;) JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK is his range here like I said. With the original raiser having JJ and me having QQ, it's a fold, for me. Even without the knowledge of the original raisers hand it's still a fold for me. This player, at this level, at this time, is likely to have a very small range to reraise the players in question. This is why every WWYD thread is different and needs to be answered as such. If I opened and seat 1 or 6 moved in, I call in a heartbeat. :ok

[george2loose]

Re: Horrible Spot DO you think this player is flatting with all pairs below QQ then? Or AK, AQ etc?

[billy the punter]

Re: Horrible Spot

DO you think this player is flatting with all pairs below QQ then? Or AK' date=' AQ etc?[/quote'] I think he is passing plenty of hands. I expect him and many players to pass AQ, well every player of BENALMEDENA'S ability anyway. Think he would definitely reraise with AK, so it's a possibility, but I'm happy to avoid a flip at this stage anyway. He may call with 88,99,TT as he has position, but he wouldn't commit his tourn with a reraise all in when holding one of these hands. I very much doubt he'd call with less than 88. Like I've said his ALL-IN RERAISING range would be JJ-AA inc AK.