Fintron's Fast Flat Fancies - 2009

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I'm going to try cut down on the number of races I play in and concentrate on the better quality handicaps this season. To start with I'm going to concentrate on class 2-4 sprint handicaps over 5-6f and see how it goes for the time being. I did a bit of digging into these races last week, looking over 50 5-6f C2-4 handicaps from the 2007 flat season to try get a better feel for the sort of horses that win these races. This is what I found. SP Less than 9/2: 10 5/1 - 6/1: 12 13/2 - 9/1: 16 10/1 - 20/1: 11 22/1+ : 1 The reason I chose 9/2 as the lower SP limit was because of work done in David Duncan's excellent books. He recommends backing horses between 9/2 - 8/1 if I remember correctly, as part of his very useful instant handicapping system. My findings above suggest 5/1 - 20/1 is the price bracket to focus on, as 78 % of winners in the study fell into this bracket - a decent stat and it looks like you have resist the temptation of the 50/1 outsider lurking at the bottom of the handicap. Just for the record, Colorus (19/6/09) was the sole 22/1+ priced horse, when winning at 33/1. The biggest SP's all came in double figure fields - field size in brackets.... 20/1 (5), 18/1 (14), 20/1 (14), 20/1 (29), 16/1 (13) and 33/1 (20) so it makes sense to be a more lenient when looking at the market in big fields which makes sense. Days since last run The horses I looked at were from the start of the flat season that year in Newcastle (Doncaster was out of action that year) up until the end of May, so we are looking at the start of the season - to compare with the current time. less than 30 days: 35 31 -100: 1 101 - 200: 8 201+: 6 So it is worth siding with ones that have a recent run to their name in general, which is understandable. However, it is worth noting that a lot of the

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Fast Flat Fancies - 2009 A tricky race to kick things off but we've had months and months off the flat and just glad to get back into the swing of it again. 4.15 Doncaster The favourite Palace Moon has been well backed overnight and into 9/2 with most firms. Skybet are a standout 11/2 though and its clear to see why he is the favourite. Hugh Morrison's gelding makes his handicap debut here and although carrying bottom weight, is the least exposed runner in the field and one of the most likely to win from the bottom third of the weights. He has shown much promise in maidens, running a second second over this trip at Salisbury over this trip before following that up over that same CD next time out with a win on fast ground. He was last seen in a Newmarket conditions race, finishing third and less than a length away from Godolphin's Khor Dubai. He returns from a lenghy break but so do many others and he has to be backed from a low draw I feel. Next in the betting is Harrison George from the Richard Fahey yard. He is a course and distance winner from last May and 7 lb higher than when winning a class 4 handicap at York in July. He is versatile ground wise and comes from the other rail in stall 21. He is versatile tactics wise. He was a decent second in the Silver Cup at Ayr when last seen which shows he can hold his own in this company although is he is bordering the bottom third of the weights which is a slight negative. Thebes is rated only 1 lb higher than Harrison George but in this tightly knit field is located in more favourable territory in the handicap and arrives in good form. A recent winner at Wolverhampton in this grade over this trip he possesses plenty of speed and from a high draw here he makes plenty of appeal. He is raised 3 lbs from his latest win which equals his previous career high but he is open to further improvement as has to command respect as a Mark Johnston runner. He's prominent in the betting at 9/1 and I like him a lot. Northern Fling hails from the David Nicholls yard, who are flying at present, and won at this track on his reappearance last season. He will see out 6f for sure though and won on fast ground at Ripon in the past. He was rated 1 lb lower at the start of last season so he may be up to winning again. He's been running over in Dubai and looks well handicapped as he is 6 lbs lower than his 103 rating at Haydock from last year. He could have been handed a kinder draw, although did win at Ripon after being held up. Fathsta makes his debut for Nicholls after being bought out of Sylvester Kirk's yard for 38,000 gns in October last year. He was very consistent last season and although 7 lbs higher than his last win, was holding his form well. He's gone well fresh in the past and will be backed as a saver. River Falcon is prominent in the handicap and racing off the same mark as when 4th to Judge n Jury in a decent course sprint over 5f at the end of last season. He is 4 lbs higher than his last win but is worth a saver on the basis that I think he is better with a bit more cut. He is above 20/1, but could feabily be backed in before the off. Five against the field: Palace Moon - 11/2 Skybet - 40 % stake Thebes - 9/1 VC Bet - 40 % stake Northern Fling - 12/1 Blue Sq - 10 % stake Fathsta - 20/1 Paddypower - 5 % stake River Falcon - 25/1 Ladbrokes - 5 % stake