bowles10 Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Dont know too much about this race, but Gosden seems to have got his string into some form this week & Bronze Cannon with Ryan Moore up on board appeals to me at 8/1 Corals. I expect it will start nearer 6/1 or less. Favourite Premio Loco doesnt have a distance win to its name with all its 6 wins at a mile or less. Bronze Cannon won 1st time up in April last year winning a 3yo handicap at Newmarket over 1m 2f. Doctor Fremantle & Desert DReam desert filled 2nd & 3rd respectively. Desert Dream looks one to follow this year on the AW. THat was off a rating of 84, by the time the season was over its rating had risen to 104. It didnt pefrom in the King Edward stakes (grp 2) at Royal Ascot. Its 3rd behind With Interest at Newmarket was probably its best run of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Stuck two up Wednesday night, wanted to beat the odds before the final dec. Make it three runners, Premio Loco, Re Barolo and Bronze Cannon. Decided to tip/back Re Barolo (6/1) and Bronze Cannon (10/1) as I thought that Premier Loco would hold his then price of 5/2. After the decs, Premio Loco is still 9/4, surprisingly Re Barolo is still 6/1, but as expected Bronze Cannon is now as short as 5/1 (big as 8/1). Gosden's form is a plus for Bronze Cannon. The run at Royal Ascot is best ignored, JF overdone the hold up tactics that day and he was given no chance out the back off a slow pace. I don't think we have seen the best of Re Barolo yet, he needs a strong gallop over 10f on the A/W, something he hasn't had as yet. He has held his form despite this so I do think there could be some improvement in him on Saturday. Will maybe save on the fav on the day as I do think he will stay the trip around here - he is related to a 10/12f winner. There are some interesting stats for this race.... The Winter Derby Trial winner has done well - the last 9 have seen 4 winners 2 2nds 2 unplaced 1 didn't run FTO for the season 1/9 Dubai LTO 0/9 Ran on A/W this season 8/9 Won on A/W in Feb 8/9 Won on A/W in Feb with it being LTO 6/9 Distance winner 8/9 Course/poly winner 8/9 A/W winner 9/9 Can only see three in it. RUK did some decent work on the race last night inbetween Kempton races. Did anyone hear my email? I was talking up Re Barolo's chances (they previously dismissed his chances) and they gave it plenty of airtime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Yeah, I heard it Billy........... Of course though...........I didn't know it was you !!..........:lol How about Baylini as an EW squeak at around 50/1 ? I put it up in BBotD the other night for the Listed race on the basis that it had finished a close up 3rd in the Winter Derby Trial. It finished 2nd in the Listed race at 33/1. Watching the race the other night it struck me that the horse was ridden for place money. He held it up until the others had made their efforts, then went round beaten horses to grab 2nd. Might do the same on Saturday and run into a place at big odds ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday I've given up on the AW now but this is the one race I'm dipping back in for. Re Barolo for me too. I'm a big fan of this horse and like Botti as a trainer - he seems to do very well on the all-weather. First time I backed this one was at York in July and it came in at a massive price. He had already won a conditions race so has proven himself beyond handicaps and I also backed him last time out when he was well backed and came from off the pace to beat Suits Me by a neck in a listed race. He ticks all the boxes for me and I think is an each-way bet to nothing. He's won over course and distance and although not yet won beyond listed level, is open to improvement and well worth a crack at this level. Jockey won on him last time. Has a decent chance at the weights and trainer is in form, saddling Saltagioo to victory last night at Kempton. Although I rate Chris Wall Highly, I agree with Bowles, that Premio Loco may have his stamina stretched so will take him on. Bronze Cannon is proven over trip and on poly so could feasibly make the frame if fully tuned up, as you would expect from his excellent trainer. Hasn't won beyond listed level though so not above Re Barolo in the pecking order for me. Suits Me is the other one that could be vying for a place IMO, has had a superb season and the only concern I have with him is that it is hard to make all over this trip at Lingfield. At any other course I'd give him a much better chance but he has been running big races at listed level and worth a crack at this Group pot. This would be the icing on the cake for Tom Tate's highly progressive horse if he were to win. Kandidate was behind many of these in the Winter trial and has to be placed carefully now because he struggles in pattern races yet is too high in the weights for handicaps. Internationaldebut struggles even in handicaps now. Docofthebay has no option other than running in these races now as too high for handicaps and is not proven even in listed grade. Halicarnassus the one to beat on official figures but never looked like winning of late. Mahadee is a good handicapper but was well behind Premio Loco in a listed race at Kempton. Spencer will try and hold him up probably from stall 11, but all of last three wins have come up with the pace, or setting it. Scintillo comfortably beat Baylini at Kempton this week but is held by Re Barolo on recent Lingfield running in the Winter Derby Trial. Without a Prayer looks one of the more likely challengers. Handles surface and been running credibly in turf races over in Dubai lately at this trip. Was behind Halicarnassus in a handicap and less favourable weighted here though so I think others have stronger claims. Baylini has the benefit of a fillies allowance but is up against it on official figures and must reverse recent form with Scintillo. I'll back Re Barolo at the price but for a bit of fun will have a little go at the tri-cast: 1) Re Barolo 2) Suits Me 3) Premio Loco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday 3:05 Lingfield: Suits Me 3pts e/w 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) Just been having a look at the Winter Derby on Saturday. Premio Loco heads the market at 5/2 and is on a hat trick after wins at Lingfield and Kempton. However, they were over a mile and looking back through his form the Racing Post comments in running question whether he got the eleven fulongs of the Cambrigheshire, with that element of doubt he is worth taking on over this mile and two with Suits Me at 7/1. Suits Me is a front runner and he may be able to dictate things and prove hard to catch. Re Barolo ran him down the last time they met, but you can't always guarantee a clear run through the field, so I'll stick with Suits Me with Micky Fenton again in the plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blair Boy Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Been looking at the field for this race back and forward during the week, now thinking about backing Suits Me who has a fair chance even though it will be his first run at group level, he has however shown some decent form of being placed 1,2 in his last 9 races. has form over C&D and looks certain to gain a place. But at his current odds I may risk a small stake on him to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday i personally looking down the betting to spencer horse madahee..it is the fastest horse lto although not producing anything like the numbers the fancied horses have i am hoping its 100per cent record at lingfield albeit lowly class six,spencer can get it to place at least at 28-1 gl all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 20, 2009 Share Posted March 20, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Decided to tip/back Re Barolo (6/1) and Bronze Cannon (10/1) as I thought that Premier Loco would hold his then price of 5/2. So far so good, Re Barolo is 11/2 (Lads stand alone) and Bronze Cannon is 7/1 (Coral stand alone). Both prices won't last and I think they will be around 9/2, 5/1 respectively come the race. Premio Loco price has held since the ante-post market as I expected. Will save on him at 3.6 or thereabouts. Split stakes the three I think, although I'm tempted to go in again on Re Barolo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday So far so good, Re Barolo is 11/2 (Lads stand alone) and Bronze Cannon is 7/1 (Coral stand alone). Both prices won't last and I think they will be around 9/2, 5/1 respectively come the race. Premio Loco price has held since the ante-post market as I expected. Will save on him at 3.6 or thereabouts. Split stakes the three I think, although I'm tempted to go in again on Re Barolo. Coral are SP and dont have prices till 08.30 :\ Well done on grabbing the value though. Hopefully they come in for you now. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Coral are SP and dont have prices till 08.30 :\ Well done on grabbing the value though. Hopefully they come in for you now. :ok Cheers mate, the easy part is over - just the small matter of winning the race now. :D;) You can click through on oddschecker with Coral and it takes you through to a betting slip - not sure if you can action the bet though. They have shortened to 13/2 now though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Really looking forward to the Lingfield card as a whole, 3 class 1s, a class 2, class 3 and 3 class 4s. Should be good entretainment. I know it's boring, but I think Premio Loco has a monster chance. Has had 2 runs in last couple of month so should be in perfect condition, and last win was much more impressive than previous win. in over a mile suggested today's trip won't be a problem, and great jockey on board. 9/4 looks a fair price imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Ive backed Kandidate @ 20's E/W with Bet365 BOG Just think he is overpriced on his very best form. I feel he can be excused his run 3 starts ago when trailing in a DISTANT 6th of 6th over c&d, he was giving away lumps of weight that day and the extreme distance of the defeat (behind 2 or 3 of todays rivals), leads me to believe he wasnt fully right on the day and needed the run after a 5 month break. 2 starts ago, he returned to form, winning well enough at Southwell in a small field over 11f, also reversing the form with Formation who won the above race. Stripped much fitter and looked a much better animal. LTO, he was for me the unluckiest horse in the race, in the Winter Derby Trial when having to be snatched up about a furlong or so from home, when still holding every opportunity, he kept on to be a close 4th behind some of todays more fancied runners, Re Barolo, Suits Me and Scintillo again over c&d. So for me excuses can be made for his run LTO and 3 starts ago, and if reproducing his form of the past then he has every entitlement to make the frame, as we know he should get every yard of the 1m2f, which is arguably a doubt concerning a few of the others in the race. Clive Brittain and Neil Callan combined yesterday to score with Kabaari, so the combination has something to offer. Might be nothing and might run a shocker, but I just feel he is overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Dont know too much about this race, but Gosden seems to have got his string into some form this week & Bronze Cannon with Ryan Moore up on board appeals to me at 8/1 Corals. I expect it will start nearer 6/1 or less. Favourite Premio Loco doesnt have a distance win to its name with all its 6 wins at a mile or less. Bronze Cannon won 1st time up in April last year winning a 3yo handicap at Newmarket over 1m 2f. Doctor Fremantle & Desert DReam desert filled 2nd & 3rd respectively. Desert Dream looks one to follow this year on the AW. THat was off a rating of 84, by the time the season was over its rating had risen to 104. It didnt pefrom in the King Edward stakes (grp 2) at Royal Ascot. Its 3rd behind With Interest at Newmarket was probably its best run of the season. nice to be sitting on the value 8/1 now as posted earlier this week George Baker was very sweet on the favs chances on C4 this morning but it still has to prove it stays. I just hope Ryan gives BC a chance to pick these off inside the final furlong when PL will get tired & need the line. Re Barolo needs to improve again but they finished in a heap last time out in the trial & not sure that will be good enough today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday nice to be sitting on the value 8/1 now as posted earlier this week George Baker was very sweet on the favs chances on C4 this morning but it still has to prove it stays. I just hope Ryan gives BC a chance to pick these off inside the final furlong when PL will get tired & need the line. Re Barolo needs to improve again but they finished in a heap last time out in the trial & not sure that will be good enough today. No pace on. He needs a strong pace to show his best so he should improve on his recent 10f efforts. That said I hope BC wins though as I win more. :lol I did go in this morning on Premio Loco so I'm split stakes on the 3 - cannot lose surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday 2:35 - Damien Ran a nice race in the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury lto when 4th behind Lord Shanakill, that form looks strong, steps up to 7f here for the first time, I only see one danger in Elnawin and that is reflected in the betting, strong chance. 9/4 Paddy Power (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday Lovely turn of foot by Premio Loco but just couln't get past Scintillo, I though he had it though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 21, 2009 Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: LIngfield Winter Derby Saturday After the way Scintillo did the business for me the other night, I really should have been on it today. :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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