Cheltenham Myths

[billy the punter]

#1 - 4yo hurdlers have a bad record in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. True or false? When initially looking at the stats it seems the statement is true. From 28 runners over the past 20 runnings there has been just one 4yo winner - Hors La Loi. Is this a reliable stat though? 19 of those were complete no-hopers, made up of the following 33/1 (2), 40/1 (1), 50/1 (1), 66/1 (5), 100/1 (5), 150/1 (1) 200/1 (3), 250 (1) and therefore should be ignored (although Olinstar (4th at 66/1 in 1990) and Dubai Seven Stars (9th at 100/1 in 2002) both ran well and above form). The 8 priced under 33/1 were: Binocular 8/1 - 2nd Quatre Heures 10/1 - 11th Locksmith 20/1 - 7th Hors La Loi 9/2 - 1st Slew Man 12/1 - 6th Pridwell 14/1 - 2nd Lemons Mill 10/1 - 2nd Nordic Surprise 6/1 - 4th Showing a formline of 20716224 The single figure priced 4yo runners show 214 formlines Martin Pipe's 4yo runners price under 33/1 show 71622 formlines All UK trained 4yos under 33/1 show 271622 formlines It's worth noting that Locksmith ran a lot better than his 7th position suggests, beaten just 14l after making most of the running. All this plus the fact that two rank outsiders also ran well in the past bodes well. So in my opinion the statement is false. it's a myth that 4yo's have a poor record in the Supreme Novice. Even including all the rank outsiders we have 8 horses than run upto and above their form in this (with obviously the more fancied runners doing even better). Not only can 4yos run well in this, they probably will run well. No prizes for guessing who I'm backing in this! ;) Although I will probably go top heavy on the place side (maybe even place only), as running well without winning is probably the likeliest outcome.

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Myths Does it begin with a T? :lol Interesting stuff Billy - Just goes to show that whilst trends can be useful, you have to be selective in which ones you apply.