Wolverhampton 27/2/09

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8.20 Wolverhampton

H = Highest ever winning mark, L = latest winning mark. Numbers next to each runner on the left are racecard number and draw. Number to the right is horses official rating. Wolverhampton-Racecourse.co.uk Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+, 0-95) Winner £9,462 6f

1. (9) Ebraam: 92 H: 93 (Feb ’08) L: 93 (Feb ’08)

Hold up horse that has been running consistently and has been placed on several occasions recently, but often finds one or two too good. He won over course and distance in Jul ’07 and was narrowly beaten off a 2 lb higher mark over this trip at Lingfield in December. He is handicapped to win again soon, but predicting when he can follow his stablemate Gallantry back into the winners enclosure isn’t easy. He has CD winning form and although was behind Little Edward last time out is 1 lb better off today.

2. (3) Little Edward: 89 H: 88 (Jun ’08) L: 88 (Jun ’08)

Another hold-up horses that is prolific at Lingfield but he only has the one run here to his name, in December, when a 0.5 length second to Ivory Silk. He has no problems with the trip and is only 1 lb higher than when winning a handicap in the summer, but his only win since came in a claimer. He has done enough in handicaps (narrowly beaten by Matsunosuke last time out) to suggest this mark isn’t beyond him but it is worth noting that his decent second to Matsunosuke came with a claimer on top taking off 5 lb and with a 'proper' jockey on today he is a couple of pounds too high in the handicap for my liking.

3. (4) Dvinsky: 88 H: 84 (Jan ’09) L: 84 (Jan ’09)

Trailblazer who made all to score at Great Leighs in January when allowed a soft lead. He has valid excuses for failing to follow up since, as he ran under a penalty next time out and was probably a little too exposed, and a combination of a step up in class and a failure to get the race run to suit explained two unplaced efforts at Kempton and Wolverhampton and Kempton in February, with the first of those runs also coming over a trip that probably stretches his stamina. He faced a hopeless task last time out when running off level weights with the likes of Swiss Franc and Ceremonial Jade in a listed race at Lingfield, especially since we wasn’t guaranteed an easy lead, and from a low draw and with a lack of pacesetters in the field tonight he could be seen in a better light.

4. (10) The Tatling: 88 H: 95 (Oct ’02) L: 82 (Feb ’09)

Former Group 3 winner (2005) who has been resurgent on the sand this winter, picking up a couple of decent sprint handicaps for Milton Bradley. He is hard to predict though now at the grand old age of 12 and the wins seem to be sandwiched inbetween a couple of unplaced efforts now so he is no banker to follow up. Will probably sit mid-division/track leaders.

5. (1) Xpres Maite: 87 H: 85 (Feb ’09) L: 85 (Feb ’09)

Another horse that has been resurgent this winter and he put behind him a losing run that extended to around nine months with a surprise win at Southwell in January when getting the better of Charles Parnell. However, he confirmed he is in great heart at present with a last time out win off a 2 lb lower mark so is handicapped to have a chance here. He is equally effective on polytrack as sand and has 4 course wins to his name. A plum draw will also help this one who likes to track the leaders.

6. (2) Mrs Penny: Non-runner

7. (8) Mutamared: 87 H: 98 (Sep ’06) L: 84 (Feb’ 07)

Fantastic servant to Kevin Ryan who once picked up three class 2 handicaps off marks in the 90’s in his heyday. More recently he has paid his way in claimers and has been prolific over this trip at Lingfield and Kempton. He moved back into handicaps last time out and won off a 3 lb lower mark but the form of that race is questionable and they ran at a dawdle (even if the third has boosted the form since). He’s making his course debut and in his current mood warrants respect, but there is the possibility he may find a few too good in this company tonight.

8. (5) Methaaly: 83 H: 74 (Jul ’08) L: 74 (Jul ’08)

Is versatile tactics wise as had won tracking the leader but has raced further back in the field in recent starts, often being held up. He ran on to take second behind the useful Flowing Cape in a class 2 course and distance handicap for today’s claiming jockey Heslop last time out (Mrs Penny and Dvinsky behind), but does also have CD winning form. The usual headgear is on as usual and with the benefit of the 5 lb claim, looks to have a decent chance.

9. (6) Soopacal: 83 H: 78 (Feb ’08) L: 78 (Feb ’08)

Returns from a 28-day break here and is likely to be content sitting mid-division/tracking the leaders. He is a course winner and was running in higher grade races not so long ago, but both of his wins came over the minimum trip and he may be best watched for now after a poor effort last time out over CD.

10. (7) Artistic License: 82 H: 79 (Sep ’08) L: 79 (Sep ’08)

Finished second in a two-horse affair when last seen but did win a couple of all-weather handicaps in the summer. He has won twice over the trip, placed on his only course start (5f) but is another that looks best watched for now after three disappointing efforts on her last three runs. Was beaten by Dvinsky at Kempton in October and likely to be held up.

Verdict

I think the outcome of this race, in which many are handicapped to win, will be decided by whether Dvinsky is allowed a soft lead or not. Although he may be a couple of pounds too high at present, this represents his best opportunity for some time to score if he is able to dictate the tempo. The likely fly in the ointment could be Xpres Maite, who has made all on a couple of occasions, although, in the main, seems content to track the leaders. Xpres Maite is due to be ridden by Jimmy Quinn, who knows all about what makes Dvinsky tick having won on him for 4 of his 12 career wins and it will be interesting to see if he takes him on with the Bowring runner as both are drawn low. If they do battle it out then that would play into the strengths of Ebraam and Little Edward but I am hoping that Quinn will allow Dvinsky to go off infront in the hope of him running out of steam in the closing stages as the weight of his rival begins to take its toll, rather than trying to rough him up and setting it up for a fast finisher in the process. But it would be ironic if Dvinsky were to pull something extra out of the bag and beat him. History suggests that is within the realms of possibility as Dvinsky has won when partnered for the first time with both Mongan and McLaughlin so with Stephen Donohoe on top for the first time I am not taking the jockey switch as a negative sign.

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Re: Wolverhampton 27/2/09 7.50 Wolverhampton Teasing - worth another chance as she didn't get the race run to suit last time over what may have been an insufficient trip. She did have winning form over 7f, but has been catching the eye over further of late. Havlin gets on well with her and she responds well to a visor. I would have liked to have seen her in a smaller field, but will take the chance anyway at the price (14/1 SJ) as she goes well over this CD.