muppet77 Posted October 4, 2010 Author Share Posted October 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Yes four times as much. Back to square 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted October 4, 2010 Share Posted October 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Aren't you approaching this from the wrong end of the stick ? A staking plan should first of all be a means of managing your risk. To devise a staking plan on the result of one season is a bit pointless as you have no idea how the next season wil progress compared to the previous one. Your staking plan should be designed to allow you to be at an acceptable, for you, level of risk whatever specific results you get in any one season. Once you've decided on a level of risk you can look back and see what the results would have been and reasonable estimate what results are likely to be produced next season. If the amount of profit is not to your satisfaction then you have 2 choices. Increase the risk and on average stake a bigger portion of the bank or increase the overall size of the bank. I haven't looked in detail but i got the impression you are already at a high risk. The simple fact you are considering a stake amount such that you cnnot place all bets in a given short timeperiod says a lot. So i got the impression you should actually look to stake less to get to a level which can be called "reasonable". In the eye o the beholder of course. Your only option to increase profit therefore is to increase the size of the bank. Ok, easier said than done, nobody can shit money. Are you familiar with the practise in the world of Poker called "staking". Ermmm... well i guess the name says it all :lol . You can offer people to "stake" you in return for a % of the profits. Much like a poker player does for participating in a tournament. You "buy" shares in the entry fee in return for a % of the profit the player makes. Just an example you could say i offer a "staking" participation for 80% of the profit. If 10 people stake you with 100 pounds you have a starting bank of 1000 pounds. If at the end of the season you end up with 2000 pounds, you got 1000 profit, you keep 200 and payout 80 to each of the 10 participants. Just offering a possible alternative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Thanks data. I can test out the results in a random order and so get an idea of the variability of the results somewhat. I am still clueless where to start though....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? surely the way to increase the bank is to put more into the stake as you make more money ie % bank betting? by staking (5% of bank / (total corner points for all games for the day) ) * corner points we get start bank 100 end bank 1306 highest bank 2265 lowest bank 69 max risked per day 51% bank or 1094 max win per game 349 max loss per game 724 max stake per corner point 61 max corner points per day 19 of course this assuming i dont get closed down. any comments, more data needed or stats i may have missed? Of course I forgot to allow for ten points stop loss on my heaviest defeats. I have no ten corner wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Of course I forgot to allow for ten points stop loss on my heaviest defeats. I have no ten corner wins. you do, on 9/4/09. So how much of your bank are you willing to have at risk per day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? That depends on the chances ogre going bust. 50% bank? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? That depends on the chances ogre going bust. 50% bank? change the corner cap to 20 in the spreadsheet i sent you. your max at risk will be %50 per day. setting the yellow % box to 3.5 gives a final bank of around £800. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Nice. Does this'mean though that if there is only one bet a day, there will be more bet on it compared to a busy bet day, regardless of the suggested corner stake confidence level? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I dont't know what you guys are trying to achieve here. With the method I explained earlier, betting 1,2,3,4 or 5% of the bank with each bet, depedning on the percieved value (starting bank 100), gives you 95% chance of increasing the bank 10 times the initial bank in 1000 bets, 50% chance of increasing the bank 100 times, and Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? i disagree Rob. i think that by running tests on the data (Chi?) you will seem that it easily outperforms the bookies - even with 301 bets that is taken into consideration when judging significance or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? change the corner cap to 20 in the spreadsheet i sent you. your max at risk will be %50 per day. setting the yellow % box to 3.5 gives a final bank of around £800. when the corner cap is 20 and the % bank is 3.5%, the max risk is 938% ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Nice. Does this'mean though that if there is only one bet a day, there will be more bet on it compared to a busy bet day, regardless of the suggested corner stake confidence level? a four point bet will have more staked on it than a one point bet on any given day. However once we exceed the %50 of our bank we will have to bet less per game, but the money will be split according to the point stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? when the corner cap is 20 and the % bank is 3.5%' date=' the max risk is 938% ??[/quote'] ??? on my spreadsheet the max at risk is %50 or less. im looking at column AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? a four point bet will have more staked on it than a one point bet on any given day. However once we exceed the %50 of our bank we will have to bet less per game, but the money will be split according to the point stakes. in your sheet are you still using (3.5% of bank / corner units for the day ) * corner units for the match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? ??? on my spreadsheet the max at risk is %50 or less. im looking at column AA. i'm looking at column M also look at the bank going bust on 14/11/09!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I dont't know what you guys are trying to achieve here. With the method I explained earlier, betting 1,2,3,4 or 5% of the bank with each bet, depedning on the percieved value (starting bank 100), gives you 95% chance of increasing the bank 10 times the initial bank in 1000 bets, 50% chance of increasing the bank 100 times, and Spread firms will set their spread to make the most money, not to show off their forecasting skills. ;) For example, if they always had 50/50 split between buys and sells they would make money no matter what they set the spread too. If more people buy than sell it makes sense for them to push the spread up at much a possible to increase their profits and minimize the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? run the macro in this sheet a few times - it randomises the results order and stores the final bank in sheet 1. it averages around a 10x increase. i also fixed the max stop loss at 10 corners. i am favouring this method - regardless if the 4 pointers are less than 1 pointers in some situations - it's all about how much the bank can afford!conv_1388.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? i'm looking at column M also look at the bank going bust on 14/11/09!!! Your looking at the wrong system! look at column S for the profit and column AA for the at risk. you do have columns S and AA>??? make sure the rule for stake per day column is =MIN(S49*($G$5*Q50);S49/(Q50*$S$1)*Q50) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Your looking at the wrong system! look at column S for the profit and column AA for the at risk. you do have columns S and AA>??? make sure the rule for stake per day column is =MIN(S49*($G$5*Q50);S49/(Q50*$S$1)*Q50) ah! - with you! didn't realise you had more columns to the right! two on the same sheet confused me! yes - i have all that info and columns etc. so is the stake formula per match is the lesser of: 3.5% of bank * points per day and bank / (corner cap * points per day) * points per day what does this do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? and how is it better than the one suggested by me below with the spreadsheet attached? (that has an average bank of 1300 when i run 500 simulations?) not being rude - just trying to work it out myself! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? run the macro in this sheet a few times - it randomises the results order and stores the final bank in sheet 1. it averages around a 10x increase. i also fixed the max stop loss at 10 corners. i am favouring this method - regardless if the 4 pointers are less than 1 pointers in some situations - it's all about how much the bank can afford! So, on single bet days we are just ignoring the the corner stake from the system and risking %40 of our bank regardless. on multi bet days we distributing the risk according to corner stakes from the system. It seems a bit haphazard, one day we are risking %40 of out bank on a 1 point stake, then next day only %4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? and how is it better than the one suggested by me below with the spreadsheet attached? (that has an average bank of 1300 when i run 500 simulations?) not being rude - just trying to work it out myself! No offence taken. I was trying to use your confidence levels, so a 1 point stake would never have %50 of the bank risked on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Ah, so what does your strategy do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Ah' date=' so what does your strategy do?[/quote'] try to limit the amount of bank available to 1 point bets on single bet days. needs more work tho.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? If you don't mind helping that would be great. I have the ability to test out the bank if we shuffle the order of bets....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robkor Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Muppet, what you have done is just reordered the results randomly...in this case you can't lose 40points 5 times in a short time interval because in your sample it only happened twice, if I remember... but that could possibly happen in the future...I think the numbers should be drawn independently one form another (by simply looking up for the result in an random row)...this way the end simulation result will sometimes be much more positive and sometimes much negative. This way you will be able to estimate the "true" risk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Ah ok rob, I get you. Good idea. I am not at pc now, so will look when I next log in. It will be easy to do - just altering the lookup functions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? muppet, when you calc stake size in column O you are using the bank size after the last bet, not the bank size at the start of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 6, 2010 Share Posted October 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? Hi Muppet77, (or anyone else reading this)...I know it is possible to limit the potential profit or loss when spread betting on the number of corners by choosing stop/loss. However, is the stop/loss of 10 corners mandatory? Or could you select a different number? Say 5 corners...Thereby limiting your profit to 5 times your stake, but far more importantly restricting your liability to 5 times your stake. I think I can guess the answer, but I don't have a spread betting account, and don't actually know for certain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 6, 2010 Author Share Posted October 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? POSSIBLE RETURN???? I don't think that you can change the stop loss, but a great idea draws! Clay, good spot, I will tweak it. How about just carving up the bank backwards? 100% Of the bank to start with. We want to risk 50% in a day. Maximum units bet is 20 per day or 1.5% of the bank per unit. Each unit risks ten times itself, so each unit should be 0.15% or 15p per corner unit when the bank starts at 100. This way it is unlikely that over 50% will be risked in a day........... 15p seems small to start with, with the smallest bet being 3 units now or 45p. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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