zapbrann81 Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 306 bets +23% yield Muppet, Have I missed something? Your Points stake is 3 but your cash is at £3.25 (3%), whereas previously a points stake of 7 correlated to a cash input of £2.75 (3%). Have you increased your underlying bank? Thanks, Zap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 306 bets +23% yield yes you have missed out! - flick back through the last month's posts. i am now betting a max of 30% of bank per day. i post the 'old style' point so that punters who still want to play it this way and not the new staking system can do so. there are limitations of the new staking strategy, but after running simulations i concluded that it didn't affect the profit or yield significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 25, 2010 Author Share Posted October 25, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Muppet, Firstly, congratulations on your system! I've plunged into the spread betting again recently using my own ratings. After looking back over a few of your earlier posts, I was wandering if you could explain what is meant by 'average error' and 'average absolute error' and how you go about calculating these? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 28, 2010 Author Share Posted October 28, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Muppet, Firstly, congratulations on your system! I've plunged into the spread betting again recently using my own ratings. After looking back over a few of your earlier posts, I was wandering if you could explain what is meant by 'average error' and 'average absolute error' and how you go about calculating these? Thanks say i think there will be 10 corners in a game, the spreads' midpoints indicate 12 and there were actually 11. my average error is -1, the spreads is +1. my average absolute error is 1 and so is the spreads'. average error tells me if i am shooting too high or low, whilst absolute value tells me how close compared to the spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted October 28, 2010 Share Posted October 28, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Sorry for sounding stupid, but could you explain it further please! Perhaps give an example of say 3 bets? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield ok, for 3 different games i predict they will all be 10 corners. the spreads think all will be 12 corners. they were all 11 corners at final whistle. my average error is exactly that, ie ((10-11) + (10-11) +(10-11)) / 3 matches the spreads is the average of their errors too ie ((12-11) + (12-11) +(12-11)) / 3 matches the ABSOLUTE average error doesnt look at whether you were UNDER the actual or OVER the actual just HOW FAR out you were. ie for me you ignore the minus signs and use the formula above: (1 + 1+ 1) / 3 matches for the bookie it will be exactly the same (1 + 1+ 1) / 3 matches ...its just that i was 1 corner under predicting each time and he was 1 over each time so the ABSOLUTE error is the same. perhaps Google 'absolute error' if this is unclear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield this is completely made up data! me spread me spread me spread actual error error abs error abs error 10.5 10.8 11 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.2 10.2 10.5 12 -1.8 -1.5 1.8 1.5 11.5 11.8 15 -3.5 -3.2 3.5 3.2 11.5 11.9 22 -10.5 -10.1 10.5 10.1 12.8 10.5 5 7.8 5.5 7.8 5.5 12.5 10.2 15 -2.5 -4.8 2.5 4.8 13.3 11.5 12 1.3 -0.5 1.3 0.5 13.8 11.5 11 2.8 0.5 2.8 0.5 14.3 12.8 19 -4.7 -6.2 4.7 6.2 14.8 12.5 15 -0.2 -2.5 0.2 2.5 15.3 13.3 16 -0.7 -2.72 0.7 2.7 15.8 14.1 12 3.8 2.06 3.8 2.1 16.3 14.8 11 5.3 3.84 5.3 3.8 -0.3 -1.5 3.5 3.4 average average average average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield ...so i am slightly underpredicting by 0.3 corners, but the spread even more so, by 1.5 however the spread on average has an error of 3.4 corners whereas i am 3.5 corners out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Thank you very much, I understand now and I am going to incorporate this into my records :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield cash points cash stake spread stake stake % of bank date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner 30/10/10 Man U Tottenham 11.50 u 3 £3.32 3.00% i got this bet on an hour ago with spin, who have since shifted to 11-11.5, a whole half corner! i hadn't even posted! be quick - it is still 11.5-12 with extrabet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2010 Author Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield boom! cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 30/10/10 Man Utd Tottenham H 11.50 u 3 £3.32 3.00% 5 £21.58 19.50 bets 7 all time bets 308 wins 57.1% wins 55.8% returned 0.0% returned 0.4% losses 42.9% losses 43.8% start bank £100.00 all time profit 526.40 current bank £132.23 all time stake 2,260.30 profit £32.23 all time yield 23% cash staked £52.13 cash yield 62% points profit 33.25 points staked 102.65 points yield 32% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09 BVB Posted October 30, 2010 Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield Congratulations! Nice work! At half time 4 was the number of corners...so u made it! It's my first bet with u...so THANKS, from my behalf! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted October 30, 2010 Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield Top spreading ole son.....:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 30, 2010 Author Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield thanks guys, and welcome aboard any new passengers. :clap the ride from now will be less roller coaster like due to the new staking plan. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted October 30, 2010 Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield :ok back to basics bud Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysjfc Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield can anyone tell me what bookies use guys are doing this?? mite give it a go, need to look into it further though not quite sure atm. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 4, 2010 Author Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield sporting index and extra bet will cover it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 5, 2010 Author Share Posted November 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield cash points cash stake spread stake stake % of bank date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner 6/11/10 Derby Portsmouth 12.25 u 4 £3.97 3.00% spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 6, 2010 Author Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield boom! cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 6/11/10 Derby Portsmouth 12.25 u 4 £3.97 3.00% 4 £32.73 33.00 7/11/10 Arsenal Newcastle 11.50 u 7 £4.95 3.00% one bet for Sunday with Spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 6, 2010 Author Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield it's good to be back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted November 6, 2010 Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 308 bets +23% yield it's good to be back. :notworthy :ok nice pick muppet, certainly glad spreads are back! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted November 6, 2010 Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 309 bets +24% yield Awsome work! It's good you're back, mate :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zapbrann81 Posted November 6, 2010 Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 309 bets +24% yield Great Result, and thanks for the update on the staking plan a few posts ago. Zap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted November 7, 2010 Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 309 bets +24% yield :clap Top bombing as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 7, 2010 Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 309 bets +24% yield NICE..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 7, 2010 Author Share Posted November 7, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 309 bets +24% yield cash points cash stake cash points spread stake stake % of bank stake stake date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner corners profit profit 7/11/10 Arsenal Newcastle 11.50 u 7 £4.95 3.00% 14 -£12.37 -17.50 bets 9 all time bets 310 wins 55.6% wins 55.0% returned 0.0% returned 0.4% losses 44.4% losses 44.6% start bank £100.00 all time profit 541.90 current bank £152.58 all time stake 2,310.80 profit £52.58 all time yield 23% cash staked £97.23 cash yield 54% points profit 48.75 points staked 153.15 points yield 32% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysjfc Posted November 8, 2010 Share Posted November 8, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 310 bets +23% yield any idea why sporting index wont accept me for a desposit account?? going 2 try extra bet lol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysjfc Posted November 8, 2010 Share Posted November 8, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 310 bets +23% yield Signed up with extra bet ;) what part in the spread betting are u doing in the corners section lol? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted November 10, 2010 Author Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 310 bets +23% yield cash points cash stake spread stake stake % of bank date h a corners bet per corner per corner per corner 10/11/10 Chelsea Fulham 11.25 u 3 £4.58 3.00% this just shifted to 11 after i placed a bet. no bet @ 11 if it doesn't chnage. i think i am a watched punter. my card is marked. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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