KThom Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Hi muppet, I understand that. The historical data I was referring too was the previous spread "odds" which you backtested against. Or did you just take a written record? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpodoKomodo Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Fantastic work muppet, it will be especially itneresting to see if, over the coming seasons (if you carry on updating this thread!) how much you will have to adapt your system to account for any changes that might happen, whether in the spread markets, or team formations (although this one is something that changes over decades), or anything else. I don't know if you can answer questions like this about your system, but I'll ask anyway. I am assuming you use information like the pitch size, the team formations, team news, weather etc. Do you use this information to adjust your spread expectation mathematically? For example, if a team is playing on a short, wide pitch, will you adjust your spread expectation by a certain amount for a match? Or is everything you do in your system concerned purely with stats? Thanks :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Hi muppet' date=' I understand that. The historical data I was referring too was the previous spread "odds" which you backtested against. Or did you just take a written record?[/quote'] I collected it myself to paper trial an idea. It was successful so I started this thread. I would love to hear of a site that offers them historically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Spot, all I am saying is check out post number one. That talks about what the system is. I am not keen to give away the complete workings behind it, sorry. At the moment I seem to have a bit of a following and an army of Punters who are able to sometimes shift the spread price by a quarter of a corner. Eg the rotherham game moved 30 mins after I posted. That's some serious money being placed. I have never seen a singles system or maybe even a multiples system with such success after such a huge amount of bets over many leagues over an entire year. Thanks for the interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Thanks Muppet, are you still placing multiples on the ov / und markets too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield no i ditched the multiple o/u. i found practically no bets on the major leagues i cover - i'd find myself trawling every game for a weekend (200+ games) and finding one bet. i did find massive value on the Scandinavian leagues but the data was a pain to get hold of. so now i stick to just eng, scot, spain, germany, italy league matches with spread bets as it suits my estimate more as doesn't need another approximation method to work out the % o/u. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield ok, for any questions that i have already covered i may refer you back to post 1 where i have done an exhaustive FAQ section. i am not trying to be rude but just find myself answering the same one again and again. any new questions i will enjoy discussing. check it out at: [url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/total-corner-spreads-holy-grail-249-bets-23-yield-80745/index76.html#post1317617] http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1317617-post1.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 27/2/10 Chelsea Man City 12.00 u 4 The 250th bet is with extrabet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Thats a tough call M, thought it would be over :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield :cash:notworthy:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield I bow to your undoubted knowledge sir :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield Brave man to buy corners in this match Not quite with you PP,, just thought it a tough call, i dont bet against M, but these stats came through, & obviously dont take 2 defensive Italian managers :D 77% of Chelsea home games (10 out of 13) have paid out on Over 10.5 Corners bets 77% of Man City away games (10 out of 13) have also paid out on Over 10.5 Corners bets Taken from Result Service Anyhows well done again Muppet :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 249 bets +23% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 28% 70.67 1 250 bets 27% 47.84 100.0% 52.4% wins 26% 25.63 0.0% 2.8% level 25% 4.01 0.0% 44.8% losses 24% 0 28.00 1606.85 staked 23% -10.56 28.00 390.65 profit 22% -23.76 7.00 0.70 profit / 1pt stake 21% -37.18 100% 24% yield 20% -50.83 35.00 record win -40.00 record loss profitable months 10 out of 12 this week this month bets 2 14 profit 16.90 106.40 stake 39.10 188.20 yield 43% 57% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 27/2/10 Chelsea Man City 12.00 u 4 5 28.00 BOOM! 250 bets +24% yield :cash:cash:cash:cash:cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyharon Posted March 4, 2010 Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield Can anybody please explain to me how a spread bet works on a boxing match ??? I want to have a punt at the wk end but im not too sure how it all works Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield not sure mate, can't see how boxers can take corners - i suppose they do have 4 of them in a ring though. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 4, 2010 Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield Can anybody please explain to me how a spread bet works on a boxing match ??? I want to have a punt at the wk end but im not too sure how it all works Hi mate :welcome to PL. Read the 1st post (http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1317617-post1.html) in the thread to see references on what spread betting is all about. Suppose with boxing it'll be how many rounds, how long the bout is etc e.g. you're estimating that that the bout will last under 20 mins whereas the spread co is in the range 22-24 you bet under. Be careful (hope you have a good system/strategy) and make sure you have a stop loss account to avoid the unexpected. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 6/3/10 Almeria Barcelona 11.25 u 4 with SpIn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 6, 2010 Author Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield ok, February is done, so... month bets profit stake yield running yield February 4 -12.3 31.75 -39% -39% March 25 32.7 80.1 41% 18% April 42 35.6 224.4 16% 17% May 44 106.3 267.5 40% 27% June 2 20.25 20.25 100% 29% July 2 8.25 8.25 100% 30% August 15 3.85 93.65 4% 27% September 17 68.6 134.4 51% 31% October 28 28.25 136.9 21% 29% November 28 -73.8 203.3 -36% 18% December 16 39.9 99.1 40% 20% January 13 26.6 119.1 22% 20% February 14 106.4 188.2 57% 24% profitable months = 11/13 with February 2010 being the most profitable month so far. BOOM! :cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 29% 89.13 1 251 bets 28% 65.67 100.0% 52.6% wins 27% 42.84 0.0% 2.8% level 26% 20.63 0.0% 44.6% losses 25% 0 5.00 1611.85 staked 24% -0.60 5.00 395.65 profit 23% -13.66 1.25 0.71 profit / 1pt stake 22% -26.93 100% 25% yield 21% -40.41 35.00 record win -40.00 record loss profitable months 11 out of 13 this week this month bets 1 1 profit 5.00 5.00 stake 5.00 5.00 yield 100% 100% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 6/3/10 Almeria Barcelona 11.25 u 4 10 5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 12, 2010 Author Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 251 bets +25% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 13/3/10 Sevilla La Coruna 11.50 u 4 14/3/10 ManUnited Fulham 12.00 u 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 251 bets +25% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 13/3/10 Hull Arsenal 11.50 u 4 with Spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 251 bets +25% yield SPREAD SYSTEMspread stake per date home away corners bet corner 14/3/10 Sunderland Man City 11.25 u 4 with spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 251 bets +25% yield SPREAD SYSTEM YIELD CHANGE these bets ALL 29% 88.91 4 255 bets 28% 65.22 50.0% 52.5% wins 27% 42.17 25.0% 3.1% level 26% 19.74 25.0% 44.3% losses 25% 0 17.00 1628.85 staked 24% -1.27 5.00 400.65 profit 23% -14.47 0.33 0.70 profit / 1pt stake 22% -27.88 29% 25% yield 21% -41.52 35.00 record win -40.00 record loss months with profit 11 out of 13 this week this month bets 4 5 profit 5.00 10.00 stake 17.00 22.00 yield 29% 45% SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 13/3/10 Sevilla La Coruna 11.50 u 4 13 -6.00 13/3/10 Hull Arsenal 11.50 u 4 10 6.00 14/3/10 Sunderland Man City 11.25 u 4 10 5.00 14/3/10 Man United Fulham 12.00 u 3 12 0.00 BOOM! 29% yield this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield SPREAD SYSTEM spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 15/3/10 Liverpool Portsmouth 11.75 u 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted March 14, 2010 Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield muppet - question on how you're calculating the stake and yield. Shouldn't the stake be at the stop loss amount - i.e. we are potentially risking it all up to the stop loss of 10 corners, so this week would be (4+4+4+3)*10=150. Hence, like a lay bet it should be the max liability rather than 4+4+4+3 or however you've come up with 17? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield I am always open to new suggestions on yield calculations. My method is described in post 1, which I have seen used by many spread systems. I see the bet as an even money bet pretty much which links in with my strike rate. With your suggestion a one corner win implies odds of 1.10 decimal, which I am not sure reflect the bet. The Bookie is basically saying over or under a price minus the half corner or 5% margin. If you imagine the bet as odds of evens and build in a 5% Margin, a yield of 25% ties in really well with the strike rate I have achieved, so that convinces me I am calculating it correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield Ahhh how did i manage to miss the Sunderland bet. Just a small loss for me this weekend. fingers crossed for tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield hey muppet, congrats on the continued success. :clap I've noticed that you don't bet on all leagues offered by these spread betting firms. Does your system work well in leagues that you aren't listing here? Just wondering because I am working on a spread system that shows an incredible yield with most leagues (england, germany, portugal, spain, netherlands, belgium, switzerland) but on certain ones (italy, norway, austria, denmark) it performs much worse. With these leagues included i've had a yield of 30% in 123 games. Without these leagues included i've had a yield of 81% in 76 games. have you experienced something similar where extra leagues drag your yield down? it would make me feel much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 15, 2010 Author Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield I don't know of a spread firm that offers total corners on other leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield I don't know of a spread firm that offers total corners on other leagues? oh ok, i just saw the other leagues listed on spin and assumed they offered corners as well. i suppose not. well, do you have an opinion (since you are obviously successful with this) about whether a spread system could continue to work well specifically in certain leagues but not in others? p.s. i just realized may not have been clear, my bets are on team supremacy not corner spreads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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