a1ehouse Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Onto this weekends selections: A1ehouse LtDA1ehouse LtD Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BetfairOdds 26/09/2009 Premier League Liverpool Hull 95.65% 9 26/09/2009 Ethniki Katigoria Olympiakos Panionios 93.96% 8 26/09/2009 KPN Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven Willem II 93.54% 9 26/09/2009 KPN Eredivisie Twente VVV Venlo 92.68% 6.4 27/09/2009 Serie A Juventus Bologna 91.99% 6.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Fixture tonight: A1ehouse LtDA1ehouse LtD Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BetfairOdds 29/09/2009 League 1 Leeds Carlisle 90.20% 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Tough night A1 - same for me with a different strategy. It very difficult laying on betfair (whatever system is used) just taking the odds on offer at the time .... you do need to get value odds as you suggest .... ideally this requires having a price in mind and getting below that ... can your system produce a figure ? You have a win expectancy ( I don't know how thats produced) can that be translated into odds e.g split into a home win % and an away win % ... from that a draw % could be worked out and from that the draw odds ? K :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Thanks bud. Using betfair is solid from the off cos they rob you of 5% profits! The win expectancy posted is the chance of the home team winning so inversely the chance of the away win is available. ie. tonight: Leeds = 90%, Carlisle = 10% This totals 100%, so any idea how the draw % is worked out, bearing in mind av draw % for E1 is 28%!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Tricky one this A1 ... coz you really need to use your system stats to produce a figure rather than averages. So Leeds were 90% this equates to odds of 1.11 and 10% away odds of 9.00 I've checked the average odds of all bookmakers and they make it .. 1.32 / 4.54 / 8.89 Is it possible your win expectancy figure also includes the draw chance ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 The ratings are a win expectancy so chance of a draw is included :\. Initially I was using the ratings to find high chance winners and switched to draws because of the low odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 You could always test the data against laying the away .... or backing 1X ( double chance ) same thing really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 A1 ... just thinking of ways to use the % data you have produced ...... if the win/draw expectancy of leeds was 90.2% = odds of 1.11 .... so if you could get the double chance odds on Leeds/Draw or Draw no Bet at odds greater than this then it may prove profitable ... is this possible to back check ? There maybe times when it's x2 rather than 1x for double chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 There may be something in that Kanga, just not sure where I could get the odds to back test. Thing is, again the odds may be really low given cut off is 10/90 so profitability and value takes the hit. Definitely think there's something in ELO ratings, its just how to apply them to a robust system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Yes at 90% the odds will be low although it's the % advantage on the odds achieved that's the key factor. Is there anyway you can extrapolate the draw % probability from the data ? ... It would give more options to profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 A1 - is this any good for your system ... http://betting.football-data.co.uk/ratings.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Thanks Kanga, am familiar with the link which compares goal supremacy to predict and applied something similar above http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1333339-post16.html Have seen this: http://en.allexperts.com/q/Basic-Math-657/2009/5/Probability-Questions.htm scroll to the last section where it explains a formula. edit: won't work - it was based on a specific algebra question with known probabilities doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 A1 ...... could you not check your elo ratings against past results and get a formula using the techniques suggested ? I looked at the link you sent, it's interesting .... but do you know how many times more likely a home win is over the away or the away over the draw from your ratings ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 I have, just forgot I did all that and wasn't sure how it could be applied! It's were the graphs came from and fair odds are based off the derived equations. Take a look in the attachment and let me know thoughts. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 A1 ... great work it looks like you've done it all .... looking at the Leeds example again, I just added an extra line for 90.2% and it gave odds back of 1.31 / 6.58 / 11.48 .... I checked this out to be 1.0024 so very close to fair odds. The average odds of all bookies was 1.32 / 4.54 / 8.89 From looking at those odds if you could lay the draw at 4.60 it would be a good bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Just an additional thought .... I noticed that the home accuracy rating (r2) was 99.06 the away was 98.37 ... whereas the draw was 82.60 .... it may pay to treat draw predictions carefully or allow a greater margin of error ..... I just checked the leeds result out it was in fact a draw :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 :ok thanks for the confirmation! In fact, I produced these when I first developed the ratings which have now been tweaked to align better with each league (I used 100 pts for the home team advantage) but now use these: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1457007-post50.html Will have to refresh the regression to see if the equation changes! Totally agree with the draw accuracy - would love to be able to get that tighter. So any suggestions for filters? Can't see many games where LtD will give us fair odds TBH! :sad although it may open other opportunities for home/away predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted October 1, 2009 Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 A1 ... if you could send me over the revised model I'll gladly take a look. I have a feeling that you may have to look into "bands" here for greater accuracy. Just a quick question on the maths ... if r2 is 82.60% accurate for the draw does that mean that the games fall on average 9% either side of the formula line making up the 18% deviation ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Kanga is doing some analysis on my ratings, so will hope to tweak and refine. I may still do these Lays but on a different staking plan. 21 wining streak followed by 2 losses wiped out the profit, so as some have suggested, will start to look more for value, %'s (Kanga-inspired!!) then staking based on % liability. These ratings are producing excellent potential and back tested over 100k matches so will continue to post selections until I settle on things. I am not putting any dosh on them yet and the betfair odds will not be as good as these: A1ehouse LtD Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BbAvD 03/10/2009 La Liga Primera Division Barcelona Almeria 92.51% 8.7 03/10/2009 Bundesliga 1 Bayern Munich FC Koln 90.62% 6.01 03/10/2009 Premier League Man United Sunderland 94.35% 6.18 03/10/2009 Superliga Sp Braga Setubal 92.54% 4.59 04/10/2009 Superliga Sp Lisbon Belenenses 91.64% 4.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 No pressure then :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilkBC Posted November 1, 2009 Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Hey a1ehouse, Been reading this thread with interest. Regarding the profits you are getting, do you think your strike rate (and profits) would be larger if you were just concentrating on in play games and trading out (i.e., the all-too-familiar "Lay The Draw" trading system) -SilkBC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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