a1ehouse Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Summary should be: A1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£972.48Total Staked£10.02Average Liability£29.66Number of Bets2Winning Bets1Losing Bets1Strike Rate50.00%Yield-274.56%P/L less 5% Comm-£27.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 10, 2009 Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops mate, your yield canot be less than 100%? even if you are laying bets you cannot lose more money than you put up. eg you have a liability of £100 to win £50 the bet loses - you lose £100. staked = £100 profit/loss = -£100 yield = -100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Cheers Muppet, so if the yield is the total liability divided by the profit/loss we get: A1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£972.48Total Staked£10.02Total Liability£59.32Number of Bets2Winning Bets1Losing Bets1Strike Rate50.00%Yield-46.39%P/L less 5% Comm-£27.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 11, 2009 Author Share Posted April 11, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops 2 feckin draws in as many days (thread is well over a month old and there were 2 draws in all 37 selections!!) so I was touching cloth a bit with the Chelsea and Stirling games!!! Still a profit of 16.46 after "tax" even with the draw at Inter which cost ~ 22 points. HomeTeam Result Inter:wallLiverpool:dudeStirling:dudeChelsea:dudeSp Lisbon:dudeBarcelona:dudeTwente:dudePorto:dudeA1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£988.94Total Staked£56.20Total Liability£286.18Number of Bets10Winning Bets8Losing Bets2Strike Rate80.00%Yield-3.86%P/L less 5% Comm-£11.06 Tomorrow's selections, same stakes. Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BFOddsStakeLiability12-Apr-09KPN EredivisieHeerenveenVolendam90.74%6.2£6.02£31.3212-Apr-09KPN EredivisieAjaxWillem II93.95%8.2£4.02£28.91 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 12, 2009 Author Share Posted April 12, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops HomeTeam Result Heerenveen:dudeAjax:dude Ajax scraped through that one! |Makes for a 9.54 profit today. Not bad overall, the two draws of -53 points for the weekend, which are likely but rare based on historic ratings, have been pretty much negated by the wins. Onwards and upwards. A1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£998.48Total Liability£346.41Number of Bets12Winning Bets10Losing Bets2Strike Rate83.33%Yield-0.44%P/L less 5% Comm-£1.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 17, 2009 Author Share Posted April 17, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Just 2 games this weekend: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability18/04/2009 KPN Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar Vitesse 91.04% 10 20 WWdWWWWD 11 WWdWdlLl AZ Alkmaar:10(4) Vitesse:8(4) Draws:5(3) 6.6 £6.02 £33.7319/04/2009 Serie A Milan Torino 91.25% 10 14 WDlWlWWd 7 dDdWdLlL Milan:8(5) Torino:1(0) Draws:8(3) 5.5 £6.02 £27.10 Off to Wembley to hopefully watch Everton sneak a win on Sunday so next update will be on Monday!! COYB :clap:nana:cheers:beer:gimme:moon:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 20, 2009 Author Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap What a weekend - pure carnage!! Final here we come!!! TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultAZ Alkmaar:dudeMilan:dudeA1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,009.92Total Liability£407.24Number of Bets14Winning Bets12Losing Bets2Strike Rate85.71%Yield2.44%P/L less 5% Comm£9.92 New bank means new stakes: 100% of Bank£1,009.92PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.10£25.253.6£6.06£15.757.4£6.06£38.787.5£4.04£26.2611£4.04£40.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Couple more selections tonight pop pickers and one tomorrow. TopAndThePlopsDateDivisionHomeTeamAwayTeamWinExpectancyGoalSuperiorityHomeTeamFormAwayTeamFormHeadToHeadBetfairStakeLiability21/04/2009ConferenceHistonWeymouth91.94%2514 WDllWWDW0 LllLlLLLHiston:2(0) Weymouth:0(0) Draws:1(1)12.5 No bet over (£4.04 if < 11) £40.40 21/04/2009La Liga Primera DivisionReal MadridGetafe92.18%1922 WWWWWDWW7 dDdDlLlWReal Madrid:3(2) Getafe:4(1) Draws:2(1)5.4£6.06£26.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Madrid - what a game, thought it was going to end in a draw after that penalty miss late on, but somehow the laid draw was pulled out the bag. :nana TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultHiston:dudeReal Madrid:dudeA1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,019.52Total Liability£472.29Number of Bets16Winning Bets14Losing Bets2Strike Rate87.50%Yield4.13%P/L less 5% Comm£19.52 New bank means new stakes 100% of Bank£1,019.52PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.20£25.493.6£6.12£15.907.4£6.12£39.157.5£4.08£26.5111£4.08£40.78 Tomorrows pick: TopAndThePlopsDateDivisionHomeTeamAwayTeamWinExpectancyGoalSuperiorityHomeTeamFormAwayTeamFormHeadToHeadBetfairStakeLiability22/04/2009Premier LeagueMan UnitedPortsmouth92.37%018 WWWWWWLl8 LlLWdLdWMan United:7(5) Portsmouth:3(0) Draws:1(0)6.8£6.12£35.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 22, 2009 Author Share Posted April 22, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Backtested Eng Prem results quite poor with this system, but after 2 losses I was confident it wouldn't be a draw. TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultMan United:dudeA1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,025.35Total Liability£507.87Number of Bets17Winning Bets15Losing Bets2Strike Rate88.24%Yield4.99%P/L less 5% Comm£25.35 New bank, new stakes: 100% of Bank£1,025.35PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.25£25.633.6£6.15£16.007.4£6.15£39.377.5£4.10£26.6611£4.10£41.01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops One selection tomorrow, 7 for Sunday: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 25/04/2009 KPN Eredivisie Anderlecht Dender 94.20% 2 13 WlWdWW 10 WlWlDW Anderlecht:2(1) Dender:0(0) Draws:1(0) 8.4 £4.10 £30.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Panathinaikos odd dropped to 11; stake 4.12, liability 41.17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Full house today, 22 on the bounce. Waiting for the next draw to eat into the profit! HomeTeam ResultArsenal:dudeOxford:dudePanathinaikos:dudePAOK:dudeThrasyvoulos:dudeXerez:dudePorto:dudeA1ehouse LTDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,064.97Total Liability£766.82Number of Bets25Winning Bets23Losing Bets2Strike Rate92.00%Yield8.47%P/L less 5% Comm£64.97 New bank, new stakes: 100% of Bank£1,064.97PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.65£26.623.6£6.39£16.617.4£6.39£40.897.5£4.26£27.6911£4.26£42.60 Went live with this when switched to laying draws :ok: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted April 29, 2009 Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Good work on this a1ehouse. Why are you having such varied liabilities (effectively your stakes)? Are you keeping a record for level stakes (your stakes)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 29, 2009 Author Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Good work on this a1ehouse. Why are you having such varied liabilities (effectively your stakes)? Are you keeping a record for level stakes (your stakes)? Thanks mate I am laying the draws, and the stakes are based on a percentage of my bank. Each time the bank grows, so do the stakes so with odds all being different so is my liability. At 1pt level stakes its +13.05pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted April 29, 2009 Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops But if you have two games both similarly priced at say 7.0 the draw and 7.5 the draw the market is effectively saying these two games have a very similar chance of being a draw and yet on one you have a 50% greater liability than the other. Isn't there a risk that this could skew your results one way or the other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted April 29, 2009 Author Share Posted April 29, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops I am basing my selections on my ratings regardless of market price. However, the stakes are adjusted depending on available odds. Where odds are between 2.6 and 7.4 I stake 0.6% of the bank (currently £1064.97). This makes a stake of £6.38 with a liability between £16.61 and £40.89. Two games with odds of 7.0 and 7.5 may well be similar chances of a draw, but I am going off the ratings where a win expectancy is <=10% or >=90%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 2, 2009 Author Share Posted May 2, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Couple today: TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 02/05/2009 Division 2 Brechin Stranraer 93.32% 9 9 LLWWWl 3 lLLWLl Brechin:12(6) Stranraer:5(1) Draws:2(2) 6.2 6.39 33.23 02/05/2009 Serie A Inter Lazio 93.27% 9 11 WWWDdl 6 LllWWL Inter:6(3) Lazio:9(3) Draws:16(9) 4.3 6.39 or 6.43 if bet1 wins 21.09 or 21.21if bet1 wins Hi draws on Inter/Lazio, but relying on the ratings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 2, 2009 Author Share Posted May 2, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultBrechin:dudeInter:dudeA1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,077.14Total Liability£821.88Number of Bets27Winning Bets25Losing Bets2Strike Rate92.59%Yield9.39%P/L less 5% Comm£77.14 New bank = New stakes: 100% of Bank£1,077.14PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.77£26.933.6£6.46£16.807.4£6.46£41.367.5£4.31£28.0111£4.31£43.09 Tomorrows selections: TopAndThePlopsDateDivisionHomeTeamAwayTeamWinExpectancyGoalSuperiorityHomeTeamFormAwayTeamFormHeadToHeadBetfairStakeLiability03/05/2009Serie AJuventusLecce92.59%129 WWDlDd4 lDlLlWJuventus:11(6) Lecce:2(1) Draws:4(1)5.26.4627.3003/05/2009Premier LeagueLiverpoolNewcastle94.04%2116 WWWWDW2 LdLLdlLiverpool:18(12) Newcastle:7(1) Draws:6(2)6.66.4636.18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamAwayTeamLiverpool:dudeJuventus:wall A last minute equalizer stops a streak of 25. Had to happen sooner or later. A1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,055.98Total Liability£885.37Number of Bets29Winning Bets26Losing Bets3Strike Rate89.66%Yield6.32%P/L less 5% Comm£55.98 Stakes as follows after the Liverpool game: 100% of Bank£1,083.28PricesStakeLiability3.5£10.83£27.083.6£6.50£16.907.4£6.50£41.607.5£4.33£28.1711£4.33£43.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 8, 2009 Author Share Posted May 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Disappointed with another draw, could have been worse before the last minute goal at Sp Lisbon. Looking into other staking plans to avoid wiping the winnings out as with all lay systems. Anyone offer any advice? TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultAnderlecht:dudeBenfica:wallSivasspor:dudeSp Lisbon:dudeA1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,037.35Total Liability£1,021.00Number of Bets33Winning Bets29Losing Bets4Strike Rate87.88%Yield3.66%P/L less 5% Comm£37.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted May 9, 2009 Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Hi a1ehouse - good luck with your system. Disappointed with another draw, could have been worse before the last minute goal at Sp Lisbon. Looking into other staking plans to avoid wiping the winnings out as with all lay systems. Anyone offer any advice? I believe that there is a common misconception when it comes to staking for lays as most people do not quote their liability as the stake amount but quote the backers stake instead. Perhaps if you used the liability and recalculated the % amount to be staked on each bet perhaps so as your liability is the same for each bet, you might be able to minimize loses. I had a (short) discussion with Paul about the way lay bets are defined on Sportspunter as I believe that if a tipster has a regular win stake of (e.g.) 10 points then this should also apply to lay bets and only 10 points should be risked instead of recording the liability, which could be much larger than that. The main point for me is that the amount of risk should be used and not the amount of reward. E.g. if I want to lay (risk) 10 points on a selection @ 3.0 I would need to take 5 points of the backers stake (reward) to achieve this. At 1pt level stakes its +13.05pts Is the above return calculated on 1pt risk or reward, if you see what I mean. Not sure if the above will make sense :eek :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 10, 2009 Author Share Posted May 10, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Thank davidc. Back testing the system over the last 9 seasons I get: Bets: 2068 Wins: 1803 Strike Rate: 87.19% Ave Odds: 5.31 So there has to be a staking plan in there! I have had a play around with "the Staking Machine" and the analysis for the lay systems are pretty good. ROI between 5.4 on Maria to 10.27 on Basic Lay Ladder. Cumulative profit peaked on Lay Percentage. Is the above return calculated on 1pt risk or reward, if you see what I mean. The +13.05pt profit is based on a stake of £1 for every bet rather than ratchet and percentage of bank, and liability ranged from £3.20 to £10. At that time: A1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,013.05Total Liability£147.40Number of Bets25Winning Bets23Losing Bets2Strike Rate92.00%Yield8.85%P/L less 5% Comm£13.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 15, 2009 Author Share Posted May 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 17, 2009 Author Share Posted May 17, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultBordeaux:dude Chelsea:dudeInter:dudeA1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,055.87Total Liability£1,123.69Number of Bets36Winning Bets32Losing Bets4Strike Rate88.89%Yield4.97%P/L less 5% Comm£55.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Last few selections this season! TopAndThePlopsTopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 23/05/2009 La Liga Primera Division Barcelona Osasuna 91.95% 12 16 WWWWdW 7 WWlLdL Barcelona:10(6) Osasuna:3(1) Draws:6(2) 3.5 10.83 27.06 24/05/2009 Premier League Arsenal Stoke 90.26% 10 16 WWWdWW 10 WWDWlL Arsenal:0(0) Stoke:1(0) Draws:0(0) 4.78 6.50 31.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Last few selections this season! TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 23/05/2009 La Liga Primera Division Barcelona Osasuna 91.95% 12 16 WWWWdW 7 WWlLdL Barcelona:10(6) Osasuna:3(1) Draws:6(2) 3.5 10.83 27.06 24/05/2009 Premier League Arsenal Stoke 90.26% 10 16 WWWdWW 10 WWDWlL Arsenal:0(0) Stoke:1(0) Draws:0(0) 5.9 6.50 31.85 Arsenal Draw bf odds are 5.9 not 4.78 (betbrain av odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 24, 2009 Author Share Posted May 24, 2009 Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops TopAndThePlopsHomeTeamResultBarcelona:dudeArsenal:dude That makes a Lay the Draw summary of: A1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,072.34Total Liability£1,182.62Number of Bets38Winning Bets34Losing Bets4Strike Rate89.47%Yield6.12%P/L less 5% Comm£72.34 Final summary for all bets (converting all advised selections in this thread to laying the draw): A1ehouse LtDStarting Bank£1,000.00Current Bank£1,246.35Total Liability£2,418.75Number of Bets75Winning Bets69 :okLosing Bets6Strike Rate92.00% :clapYield10.19% :nanaP/L less 5% Comm£246.35 :dude Overall pleased with the results and backtesting over 9 years worth of data is good too, so I will definately be running the system next season. Will continue to look for a decent staking plan tho. Congrats to Everton who finish 5th today, see you in Wembley next week boys!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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