Getting a grip on handicapping..

[fintron]

I was having a discussion in the Southwell thread with Jono about penalties and though I would write my interpretation of how handicapping works both in response to some of his questions and also as a guide for anyone new to racing that doesn't undertstand how handicaps work....

Firstly, it needs acknowledging that handicap races are a completely different race type to non-handicap races which includes Group, listed, maiden, claiming, selling or conditions races. The weights that a horse carries in those other race types is determined in a different way to handicaps. Here I am only discussing how handicaps work. Handicaps give all runners an equal chance of winning

Basically, in handicaps, every horse is supposed to have an equal chance of winning in theory. This means that some horses carry more weight than others. The weight a horse carries in a particular race is governed by the rating of the top weighted animal in the race. The animal with the highest official rating (‘OR’) carries the top-weight, which is specified if you look at the top of the racecard in the Racing Post. It will say something like ‘top-weight to carry 9-12’ or something. Note that the horses official rating is determined by the British Horseracing Association (BHA), and is completely different to the Racing Post Rating that appears in the paper (which in my opinion is a worthless figure and not worth reading).

Once the weight has been determined for the top weighted animal, the weights for the remainder of the horses are determined by comparing their OR with that of the top-weight and subtracting the difference in OR’s to work out how many pounds less they are due to carry. For example, imagine this imaginary three horse race:

Borderlescott: OR: 100 Tax Free: OR: 99 Beaver Patrol: OR: 95

Borderlescott is top-rated at 100 and if we say that the race conditions stipulate no horse will carry more than 9-10 then he is allocated 9-10 as top weight. As Tax Free is rated 1 lb lower (i.e. 100 – 99 = 1 lb) than Borderlescott, he carries 1 lb less than the top-weight, i.e. 9-9. As Beaver Patrol is rated 5 lbs lower than Borderlescott he carries 9-5 etc.

That is a straightforward example as all of the horses carry similar weights, but if a race is run containing a wide range of horses with vast differences in OR then you get situations emerging when horses can be running ‘from out of the handicap’. This basically happens because the race conditions also specify a minimum weight as well as a top weight for horses to carry in a particular race. Say our theoretical race above becomes a four horse race and Harry Up is entered. For arguments sake lets say Harry Up is rated 70 and the race conditions say that no horse should carry less than 7-12. If we subtract Harry Up’s 70 rating from that of the top-weight we get 100 – 70 = 30, so Harry Up should carry 30 lbs less than Borderlescott. With no restrictions on a lower weight he would carry 7-8 (30 lbs less than top-weight) but because of the restrictions he is forced to carry 4 lbs more than he should and is considered at a disadvantage as he is running from out of the handicap. Such runners can be noticed on the racecard in the Racing Post at the bottom of the card as their weights are listed under ‘long handicap’. What you will often see if that horses running from out of the handicap will be ridden by a young apprentice jockey, who are able to ‘claim’ several pounds to compensate for their inexperience. After the jockeys claiming allowance is taken into account they are kind of racing from within the handicap proper and stand a little better chance of winning, although it needs to be noted that not every jockey is worth their claim in reality and until they start to ride winners and their claim is reduced (first to 5 lbs and then to 3 lbs) they are, in the main, probably left best alone.

Penalties The other thing that often causes confusion in handicaps is penalties. A horse is handed a penalty if it wins a handicap race and is turned out again quickly before the handicapper has had chance to adjust their rating. A horses rating is not fixed and is adjusted weekly, going up in the case of good performances and decreasing in the event of a bad race. It is the handicappers job to ensure all horses have a fair chance of success in a certain race, without allowing them to win many races on the bounce. Such horses do appear from time to time (River Kirov springs to mind), but in the main the handicapper usually knows where he stands with older horses. He is, however, vulnerable to up and coming horses which improve quickly with every race.

A penalty is given to a horse that is running again before the horses handicap mark has been adjusted and is typically 6 lbs. This 6 lbs may not appear under the racecard under the OR column (on sporting life they list penalties as ‘ex 6’), but it will however, have been taken into account when looking at the actual weight (9-2 etc) listed next to each horse. If a horse wins two races before it is reassessed it can carry a double (12 lb penalty). In some cases, with quick improvers, seeing a horse turned out under a penalty can be a good thing if the horse won well last time and it is ‘well in’ (this means that when the horses next rating is published it will go up by more than 6 lbs. A horses future rating is seen on the RP site and can be a minus or plus number determining on how the handicapper rates their last run). However, if an older horse wins and is handed a penalty it may not be able to improve as much as a younger horse and whereas if the handicapper may only increase its rating 1 or 2 lbs officially, if it runs again quickly with a penalty it may be harshly treated with a 6 lb penalty on its back.

How does a horse get a handicap mark? A horse qualifies for a handicap mark when it has had three runs and the handicapper has a bit of form to go on to compare its performance against that of other horses with previous handicapping experience. A horse’s rating can be anything from 0 upwards although it is rare to see a horse rated below 45 or above 110. I think the median handicap rating for flat horses is something like 70. Once the horse has been given a rating it is then eligible to enter handicap races. In the Racing Post the restrictions for entry are listed next to the name and time of the race, it will say, class 6 ‘0-60’ for example which means only horses rated within that band can enter the race. It ensures a level playing field as much as possible and prevents high class horses dominating all the races. When a horses rating approaches 100+ it is generally considered too good for handicaps and will move on to contesting listed races or even Group races, where a horse is able to carry equal weights to its rivals, even if it is rated much higher than them. A different set of ratings completely are used to jumps and horses can have both a flat and jumps rating.

how can we use knowledge of weights to our advantage?

We can use them to work out whether certain horses have chance of reversing form with another rivals. Say Borderlescott beats Tax Free by a neck when these horses carry 9-10 and 9-9 respectively. If Borderlescott is forced to carry 5 lbs more than Tax Free in a future race then we can say there is every chance he can reverse the form because Borderlescott is worse off by 4 lbs in the future race.

We can also examine weights to look for horses that are well handicapped on their old form. This often happens if a horse wins is race, has its rating unfairly increased by the handicapper, and if fails to win for another year or so. The handicapper has no choice but to lower its rating to give it more chance of winning. Imagine this horse profile for Flying Bantam…

10th Dec – Kempton – OR 60 – result 1st 12th Jan – Lingfield – OR 68 – result 9th 17th Jan – Kempton – OR 68 – result 8th 2nd Feb – Great Leighs – OR 64 – result 10th

3rd Sep – Southwell – OR 60 – result 1st

So Flying Bantam won off a mark of 60 at Kempton in December but failed to win again when he had been reassessed and his mark was 68, 68, or 64. The handicapper took this into account over time and dropped him back down to 60 and on the 3rd of September he took full advantage and managed to win again.

Note that looking over a horses profile in this way does not require you to analyse the actual weight carried in a particular race. For example, at Kempton on 10th Dec Flying Bantam may have carried 8-10, and then for his next race (12th Dec) he may have carried 8-12. You could argue that he is up 2 lbs from his last win and although this statement is true in terms of the actual weight on the horses back, the number than actually matters is the OR. All a weight, such as 9-10 or 9-0 tells you is how much weight that horse was carrying relative to the top-weight in a particular race and should only be used to compare distances with horses in that race only. When you look across a horses profile to see how it has fared at a range of OR’s over the space of its career, it is the OR column that needs to be focused on.

Does more weight mean a horse is less likely to win? There is also a common misconception that horses carrying more weight are less likely to win a race. In reality, the opposite is true and if you note down the number of horses winning from all positions across the handicap (i.e. top-weight, bottom-weight etc) you find it is the top-weighted animals that win the most races. Why is this? If you think about it, the higher the horses OR, the higher the quality of the horse, and although the principle of handicapping is to give all chances an equal chance of success by making some horses carry more weight than others, the better horses actually shrug off this weight. Take a look at Suits Me on the all-weather who is one such animal.

More info I’ve done my best to explain things here but if anyone wants to hear another explanation of things then I cannot recommend this book highly enough: Horse Racing betting and Systems by David Duncan (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Manual-Racing-Betting-Systems/dp/0572029543). It is, without a shadow of a doubt, the best ten quid you will ever spend and is a must read for any newcomers to the game. I’ve got an older version of this book but I imagine the current one is just as good. Alternatively, there are plenty of wise heads on here that may point out any mistakes I’ve made in explaining above?

[Pumpit]

Re: Getting a grip on handicapping.. Good stuff:okthanks.