Lingfield - Sat 14/2/09

[fintron]

2.35 Lingfield American Spin - I really fancied this one last time out at Wolv where he was backed off the boards from 10's in the morning to 3/1 in the space of a few hours - even before the withdrawl of Riguez Dancer. His 3rd on his debut in a Newmarket maiden reads as a quality piece of form and he has ran well in two recent runs since returning from a long absence, routing the field in a poor Kempton maiden before just losing by a neck last time out over this trip at Wolverhampton. He shaped as if there would be races in him and despite a 2 lb rise in the weights I think there is lots more to come from him. Scarab is another I've followed on and off over the winter and he finally won a race when last seen. He was withdrawn from an engagement a few weeks back but is another with scope for future improvement although he is a little quirky. 4.45 Lingfield Matsunosuke was a impressive winner last time and has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is likely to have the race run to suit again here, with plenty of pace looking on the cards with Turn on the Style and Harry Up in opposition. However, despite his form, off this sort of mark and at the likely price, he's a no bet for me. Turn on the Style and Harry Up may hinder each others running and I would have liked to have seen George Baker on Little Edward to back him, especially since he's struggled a little off this mark of late. Haajes won two starts ago and is only 2 lbs higher here but I think he may find the company a bit too hot as all his wins have come at lower levels. With that in mind I think Ebraam could be the one to be on. Paul Howling's yard has hit a little bit of form and I regard this one very much similar to Royal Envoy and Gallantry, who have gone in for him in recent weeks, in that he is well handicapped on old form but just been performing a bit below par. His last win came over course and distance little over a year ago and after a winless run he has now dropped to a mark 1 lb below that last win. A 0.75 length second to Turn on the Style in a four runner Lingfield handicap in December, he had Matsunosuke behind, and he's getting an extra 9 lb from his conqueror that day when they do battle tomorrow so has every chance of reversing that form. Admittedly, he was behind Matsunosuke last time, but the Coogan horse was happier with the way the race was run and with a 3 lb drop in the handicap I think Ebraam is set for a big run.

[RussP]

Re: Lingfield - Sat 14/2/09 Going against you again, Fin....sorry mate but good luck:ok 2.35 Lingfield 12 runners line up for this Class 4 handicap over 1m4f. There is a clear front 3 in the market and they all have claims but I'm going to look for a bit of EW value elsewhere. The 3 in question at shortish prices are Scarab, American Spin and Horseshoe Reef. I'll discount Scarab on the basis of a 5lb higher mark, racing in a bigger field and a break over 30 days whilst American Spin has to step up in class and carries 2lb more too, despite finishing 2nd lto. Horseshoe Reef ran well on its UK debut but I will question its chance of repeating that performance, another up in the weights too. Saying that, it is feasible these 3 could fill the 1-2-3! Looking at the others, Ameeq has come in for money but the absence worries me whilst Action Impact has a wide draw to overcome. Again, saying that, Moore saddles them both from the foot of the weights. The one for me, however, is: War Of The Roses (20/1 William Hill) - This looks a quality race for a Class 4 but, lets be fair, this is no 20/1 shot. Even on the face of it, has a great chance - jockey in super form (10/28 in last 14 days), trainer is 1/5, horse is race fit having ran just 14 days ago, has nice inside draw in 3, goes really well here (4 wins, 6 2nds from 13 starts), and has finished 2nd 3 times from its 4 tries in this grade. Was profilic 12 months ago with 3 wins and 3 2nds from 6 starts, all around here. Since then, hasn't bee quite as good but excuses for that. Has had 5 AW races since its turf campaign, all over C&D, form being 1-2-2-6-8. First 3 of those runs were off 75, 77 & 79, the last 2 in this grade. Recorded extremely good Topspeed figures in all 3 of those runs. Since then, has raced off marks off 84 & 85 in grades higher than today. Dropped 4lb back to 81 and 2 grades from Class 2 to 4, can show much improved form and should give a very good account of itself at a massive price.