Woodie Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Still new to these d2n games 3 get paid is this a call here for me it's all in poker at this stage so marginal hands obviosuly ***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 468197748 ***** NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in + $1.10 Entry Fee, Level:6 Blinds(100/200-(no ante)) - Friday, January 16, 16:12:04 GMT 2009 D2N Turbo NL Hold'em $12.10 #2563027 Table 1 6-max (Real Money) Seat 3 is the button Total number of active players : 5 Seat 1: Semmy ( 1,365 ) Seat 2: jopoker ( 655.75 ) Seat 3: SHIP 1T 2ME ( 1,535.50 ) Seat 5: MuckurShite ( 1,570 ) Seat 6: prugi ( 873.75 ) Tourney Level:6 Blinds(100/200-(no ante)) MuckurShite posts small blind [100] prugi posts big blind [200] ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to MuckurShite [ Qd, Kc ] Semmy folds jopoker goes all-in jopoker raises to [655.75] SHIP 1T 2ME folds MuckurShite folds prugi folds Returning uncalled bet [455.75] to jopoker ** Hand Conclusion ** jopoker wins 500 from main pot ************ Game 468197748 ends ************ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? My gut feel is it's a pretty big fold - but lets do some tournament equity calculations to make sure :ok...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you fold and the big blind folds, then you have 69.5% equity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you fold, and the big blind calls and the big blind wins then you have 74.4% equity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you fold, and the big blind calls and the big blind loses then you have 72.0% equity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? So to sumarise so far - a fold from you will leave you with between 69.5% and 74.4% equity (depending on what other players do) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? Sorry this might be a dumb question but what do you mean when you say % equity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you shove and the BB folds, and you lose the hand, then you have 51.1% tournament equity: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? Sorry this might be a dumb question but what do you mean when you say % equity? There are 3 equal prizes up for grabs - the % equity is the proportion of a prize that your chips represent. (Using Independant Chip Model - ICM - maths) Another way of looking at it is that if you multiply the current equity you have by the value of a prize, then that is the value of your seat at the current moment in time (assuming no players have a skill edge and a few other assumptions...) So, this is an $11 + $1.10 buy in, presumably with prizes of $22. When you are eliminated from the tournament, your equity is 0% and your seat is worth 0%x$22=$0 When you win the tournament, your equity is 100% and your seat is worth 100%x$22=$22 At the start of the tournament, your equity is 50% and your seat is worth 50%x$22=$11 If your equity is 70% (as it is approximately if you fold) then your seat is worth 70%x$22=$15.40 If we break this down enough, then at the end the decision becomes, something like, do you want to fold and have a seat worth $15.72 or shove and have a seat worth $13.66. Then it's straightforward - do you want $15.72 or $13.66 - to get to that point though, some assumptions will have to be made about opponents ranges (to shove or call) - I'm hoping that I will be able to demonstrate this is a fold irrespective of opponents ranges so that we dont need to make any assumptions there - I dont know if it will be that clear cut :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you shove and the BB folds, and you win the hand, then you have 91.7% tournament equity: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you shove and the BB calls and you beat both players, then you have 100% tournament equity (I wont bother to show the screenshot ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you shove and the BB calls and the BB wins then you have 49.1% equity: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? woh yeah thats explained very well mate, thank you. It looks a boring hand but this is the sort of situation I've come up with the last few days when playing these Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? If you shove and the BB calls and the original shover wins, with you 2nd, then you have 65.3% equity: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? Final one - I'm ignoring split pot possibilities - they will add a lot of complexity, but have a fairly small impact on the result If you shove and the BB calls and the original shover wins, with the BB 2nd, then you have 43.7% equity: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? So complete summary: If you fold and the BB folds then you have 69.5% equity (your seat will be worth $15.29) If you fold and the BB calls and the BB wins then you have 74.4% equity (your seat will be worth $16.37) If you fold and the BB calls and the BB loses then you have 72% equity (your seat will be worth $15.84) If you shove and the BB folds and you lose then you have 51.1% equity (your seat will be worth $11.24) If you shove and the BB folds and you win then you have 91.7% equity (your seat will be worth $20.17) If you shove and the BB calls and you win then you have 100% equity (your seat will be worth $22) If you shove and the BB calls and the BB wins then you have 49.1% equity (your seat will be worth $10.80) If you shove and the BB calls and the original shover wins with you 2nd then you have 65.3% equity (your seat will be worth $14.37) If you shove and the BB calls and the original shover wins with you 2nd then you have 43.7% equity (your seat will be worth $9.61) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? I'm not sure how I can do this without making some assumptions :unsure I'm going to assume that the original shover is making that play with any pair, any two broadway cards or any ace - which is 27.6% of hands. I will assume that the BB will call if you are in the hand with top 5% of hands (99+, AJs+, KQs, AK). If you fold, I will assume he will call with top 30%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? With these assumptions, total expectation if you fold is: 70% of the time the BB also folds and you have 69.5% equity = 70% x 69.5% expectation = 48.65% 30% of the time, the BB calls and will win about 48.1% of those. In this situation you have 74.4% equity = (30% x 48.1%) x 74.4% expectation = 10.74% 30% of the time, the BB calls and will lose about 51.9% of those. In this situation you have 72% equity = (30% x 51.9%) x 72% expectation = 11.21% So your total expectation if you fold, with these assumptions, is 48.65%+10.74%+11.21%=70.6% In other words, if you fold, you are left with a seat worth $15.53. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? With these assumptions, total expectation if you shove is: 95% of the time the BB folds and 46% of the time you win the hand and you have 91.7% equity. Your expectation is therefore (95%x46%)x91.7% = 40.07% 95% of the time the BB folds and 54% of the time you lose the hand and you have 51.1% equity. Your expectation is therefore (95%x54%)x51.1% = 26.21% 5% of the time the BB calls and you win 24.5% of the time, leaving yourself with 100% equity. Your expectation is therefore (5%x24.5%)x100% = 1.23% 5% of the time the BB calls and the BB wins 48.2% of the time, leaving yourself with 49.1% equity. Your expectation is therefore (5%x48.2%)x49.1% = 1.18% 5% of the time the BB calls and the SB wins 27.4%. Of those you will be 2nd 31.6% of the time and 3rd 68.4% of the time. When you are 2nd, your expectation will be (5% x 27.4% x 31.6%) x 65.3% = 0.3% expectation When you are 3rd, your expectation will be (5% x 27.4% x 68.4%) x 43.7% = 0.4% expectation Your total expectation if you shove, with the assumed ranges is 40.07%+26.21%+1.23%+1.18%+0.3%+0.4%=69.39% In other words, if you shove, you are left with a seat worth $15.27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? This is a hell of a lot closer than I thought!! With the initial assumptions, folding leaves you with a seat worth $15.53 whilst shoving leaves you with a seat worth $15.27 - so it is a fold. However the assumptions were extremely quick and rough assumptions - change them and you can almost certainly change the result - so it comes down to what you know of the players and what kind of ranges you put them on from what you have seen during the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? Of course, in a DoN, you have 15 seconds to mentally do those calculations :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyhornet Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? Of course' date=' in a DoN, you have 15 seconds to mentally do those calculations :loon[/quote'] :lol:lol:lol:lol My initial thought, prior to reading GaF's thesis, was that I would fold, and that it was an obvious fold. However as GaF (despite assumptions as to others hands) points out it is far from clear cut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 Re: d2n is this a call? This should be treated with a lot of caution - but you have a "perfect" answer here - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=200&sb=100&ante=0&structure=0.33%2C0.33%2C0.33&s1=1365&s2=656&s3=1535&s4=1570&s5=874&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9= It assumes that everyone plays perfectly - if they dont, (i.e. ranges are wider or narrower) then it can change the solution dramatically - so to repeat - look at that link with total caution..... The "perfect" play is however that the short stack has shoved with a range of 29.1%, 22+ Ax+ K6s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s 98s. You should call with a range of 14.6%, 44+ A5s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo The BB should call you both with a range of 2.6%, TT+ AKs So according to that, you should call :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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