Worrying Trend Or Betting Tool?

[billy the punter]

Now I'm not one of those bookie/trainer/jockey hating punters that thinks every race and everybody is crooked. How can I be? I'm a winning punter. I know the game isn't 100% straight, but it's still straight enough for shrewdies to make a living. Besides who's to say the game would be any easier if it was 100% straight? However I mentioned this numerous times last season annd have noticed it even more so of late; massive, out of line difters usually run poorly. Especially on the A/W. I was looking at my recent results on one page and it really stood out... Winners (24): Backed 13 - 54% Static 9 - 38% Drifted 2 - 8% Losers (41): Backed 10 - 24% Static 15 - 37% Drifted 16 - 39% Pretty eye-opening don't you think? OK, a positive market move doesn't always mean something will run well or win (we know that) but it certainly shows (with my bets anyway) that statiscally drifters, perhaps more importantly, fancied drifters are more likely to disappoint - 89% of the time according to the above. I'd love to know if others have the same findings. Now I do rate myself as a judge and some of the things I back run too bad to be true, yes I know I can't always get it right and I know they are not machines, but can it just be coincidence that these well below-par performances also drift alarmingly in the betting beforehand? I suppose this could be used as a further betting tool when deciding your stakes, however for tipping, which has to be done in advance, it's redundent. Surely the stewards should be looking into this sort of thing more, instead to pulling in and fining up-and-coming trainers like Jim Best on the non-triers rule for a 100/1 shot! Yes a 100/1 shot - surely he would've been pulled in had it won as well? Good old stewards, you just keep doffing your caps to Mr Dunlop and the old school, while they laugh at you behind your backs. I have records for all of this if there are any questions.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Worring Trend Or Betting Tool? Billy, This type of thing is surely only to be expected for punters who look for value when betting. I don't have the statistics but imagine my bets have a similar result. As value hunters we look for a horse over-priced, at a price bigger than it's form chance suggests. If we are right in our usumption then there are likely to be other "good judges" who force the price down. Therefore, it is always likely that a good judge of value will back more winners who shorten in price than lengthen. Nothing at all to do with horses being stopped or whatever. One of the reasons for a horse being the price it is is it's recent form. If a horse has not been in form recently it may open in the market at say 7/1. If connections truly believe him back to his best then he is likely to be well backed so shortens in price. If not then it will probably lengthen. Us value backers must quantify the likelyhood of a horse running to form, so come up with a price we are willing to take. Say I had made him a true 6/1 chance and so backed it at 7/1. If it walks out to 9/1 then I'd come to the conclusion (before the race) that a return to form is unlikely. If it shortens to 5/1 I'd think the opposite. There are other reasons for a horse drifting, for example when a horse shows negative signs in the paddock. Sweating, being unfit, wearing a severe bridle, spooking, has not taken well to the new fitting of headgear, green, poor coat etc. A horse who shows three or four of these negatives is highly likely to take a walk in the market and run poorly. On the other hand, say there is one who has sweated or shown negatives in the past and run poorly. If he shows no signs of these negatives this time, he is likely to be well backed and run well. Also one who is fit with a shiny coat is likely to be backed and run well. So yes I do think it is in most cases a coincidence, or rather there are usually good reasons for a horse drifting or shortening. Can not see it being used as a good betting tool, as by backling horses because they have reduced in price means you are probably backing those who are no longer value. Ginge